Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Ag Outlook Van Gorp Insurance Meeting Pella, Iowa Feb. 11, 2014 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics U.S. Corn Supply and Use Area Planted(mil. acres) Yield(bu./acre) Production(mil. bu.)13,09212,44712,36010,78013,925 Beg. Stocks(mil. bu.)1,6731,7081, Imports(mil. bu.) Total Supply(mil. bu.)14,77414,18213,51711,93214,781 Feed & Residual(mil. bu.)5,1254,7954,5574,3355,300 Ethanol(mil. bu.)4,5915,0195,0004,6485,000 Food, Seed, & Other(mil. bu.)1,3701,4071,4281,3961,400 Exports(mil. bu.)1,9801,8341, ,600 Total Use(mil. bu.)13,06613,05512,52811,11113,300 Ending Stocks(mil. bu.)1,7081, ,481 Season-Average Price($/bu.) Source: USDA-WAOB

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics U.S. Soybean Supply and Use Area Planted(mil. acres) Yield(bu./acre) Production(mil. bu.)3,3593,3293,0943,0343,289 Beg. Stocks(mil. bu.) Imports(mil. bu.) Total Supply(mil. bu.)3,5123,4953,3253,2393,459 Crush(mil. bu.)1,7521,6481,7031,6891,700 Seed & Residual(mil. bu.) Exports(mil. bu.)1,4991,5011,3651,3201,510 Total Use(mil. bu.)3,3613,2803,1553,0993,309 Ending Stocks(mil. bu.) Season-Average Price($/bu.) Source: USDA-WAOB

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Corn Yields Source: USDA-NASS Top: 2013 Yield Bottom: Change from 2012 Units: Bushels/acre

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Soybean Yields Source: USDA-NASS Top: 2013 Yield Bottom: Change from 2012 Units: Bushels/acre

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics World Corn Production Source: USDA-WAOB

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics World Soybean Production Source: USDA-WAOB

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Hog Crush Margin Source: ISU Extension The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs. Carcass weight: 200 poundsPig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futures Corn: 10 bushels per pigSoybean meal: 150 pounds per pig

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Cattle Crush Margin Source: ISU Extension The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs. Live weight: 1250 poundsFeeder weight: 750 pounds Corn: 50 bushels per head

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics U.S. Meat Production & Prices Source: USDA-WAOB

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Corn Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Corn Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Soybean Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Soy Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Corn Grind for Ethanol

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS)

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Source: DOE-EIA, Annual Energy Outlook

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Liquid Fuel Usage (Million Barrels Oil Equivalent per Day)(Percent of 2010 Value) United States %103%101%99%98% Canada2.2103%100%98% 99% Mexico2.4105%110%117%127%138% Europe14.891%93% 94% Japan4.4106%101%99%97%94% China9.3125%146%165%178%195% India3.3113%134%158%186%217% Africa3.4105%107%112%119%126% Central and South America6.0108%110%114%121%128% World %111%116%120%126% Source: DOE-EIA

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Current Corn Futures Source: CME Group, 2/10/

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Current Soybean Futures Source: CME Group, 2/10/

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Corn Prices vs. Costs Sources: USDA-NASS for Prices, Duffy for Costs Per Bushel Cost calculated as Per Acre Cost from ISU Extension divided by Actual Yield per Acre

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Soybean Prices vs. Costs Sources: USDA-NASS for Prices, Duffy for Costs Per Bushel Cost calculated as Per Acre Cost from ISU Extension divided by Actual Yield per Acre

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Crop Acreage Source: USDA-NASS

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics 2013/14 Crop Prices

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics 2014/15 Crop Margins

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Thoughts for 2014 and Beyond  Supply/demand concerns  Demand rebounding? Yes, so far, so good  Acreage allocation for 2014: Where do the extra corn acres go?  Markets favoring soybeans in the short term and corn longer term 2012/13 USDA 2013/14 USDA 2013/14 Futures (2/10/14) 2014/15 Futures (2/10/14) Corn$6.89$4.50$4.49$4.40 Soybeans$14.40$12.70$12.78$10.84

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: Iowa Farm Outlook: Ag Decision Maker: