1. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Crops & Feed Outlook Farming for the Future Conference Ames, Iowa Sept. 9, 2011 Chad Hart Assistant Professor/Grain Markets Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911

2. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

3. U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2008200920102011 Area Planted(mil. acres)86.086.488.292.3 Yield(bu./acre)153.9164.7152.8153.0 Production(mil. bu.)12,09213,09212,44712,914 Beg. Stocks(mil. bu.)1,6241,6731,708940 Imports(mil. bu.)1483020 Total Supply(mil. bu.)13,72914,77414,18513,874 Feed & Residual(mil. bu.)5,1825,1405,0004,900 Ethanol(mil. bu.)3,7094,5685,0205,100 Food, Seed, & Other(mil. bu.)1,3161,3711,4001,410 Exports(mil. bu.)1,8491,9871,8251,750 Total Use(mil. bu.)12,05613,06613,24513,160 Ending Stocks(mil. bu.)1,6731,708910714 Season-Average Price($/bu.)4.063.555.256.70

4. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics U.S. Soybean Supply and Use 2008200920102011 Area Planted(mil. acres)75.777.577.475.0 Yield(bu./acre)39.744.043.541.4 Production(mil. bu.)2,9673,3593,3293,056 Beg. Stocks(mil. bu.)205138151230 Imports(mil. bu.)1315 Total Supply(mil. bu.)3,1853,5123,4953,301 Crush(mil. bu.)1,6621,7521,6451,635 Seed & Residual(mil. bu.)106110125111 Exports(mil. bu.)1,2791,4991,4951,400 Total Use(mil. bu.)3,0473,3613,2653,146 Ending Stocks(mil. bu.)138151230155 Season-Average Price($/bu.)9.979.5911.3513.50

5. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics U.S. Soybean Meal Supply and Use 200920102011 Production(thou. short tons)41,70739,60838,885 Beg. Stocks(thou. short tons)235302300 Imports(thou. short tons)160190165 Total Supply(thou. short tons)42,10140,10039,350 Domestic(thou. short tons)30,64030,75030,500 Exports(thou. short tons)11,1609,0508,550 Total Use(thou. short tons)41,80039,80039,050 Ending Stocks(thou. short tons)302300 Season-Average Price($/short ton)311.27345.00370.00 Source: USDA

6. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Corn vs. Wheat Source: CME Group, 9/8/2011

7. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Export Pace vs. Last Year Source: USDA, FAS

8. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Corn Advance Export Sales Source: USDA, FAS

9. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Soy Advance Export Sales Source: USDA, FAS

10. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Ethanol Margin Source: CARD

11. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Corn Grind for Ethanol Source: DOE, EIA

12. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics U.S. DDG Supply and Use 2008200920102011 Production(mil. metric tons)28.635.438.739.3 Imports(mil. metric tons)0.30.40.5 Total Supply(mil. metric tons)28.935.839.239.8 Domestic(mil. metric tons)23.927.530.330.4 Exports(mil. metric tons)5.08.38.99.5 Total Use(mil. metric tons)28.935.839.239.8 Average Price($/ton)122113179189 My estimates, so take with a grain of salt Actually, you may want the whole salt block

13. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics DDG Exports Source: USDA

14. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Supply vs. Demand CornSoy

15. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Supply vs. Demand CornSoy

16. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Projected 2011 Season-Average Corn Price

17. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Projected 2011 Season-Average Soy Price

18. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Corn Prices vs. Costs

19. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Soybean Prices vs. Costs

20. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Thoughts for 2011 and Beyond  General economic conditions  Continued worldwide economic recovery is a major key for crop prices  Debt limit, US credit rating  US job recovery, European financial concerns, Chinese inflation  Supply/demand concerns  Prevented planting, flooding, heat wave, nighttime temps?  Biofuel growth and energy demand  Will supply be able to keep pace with demand?  2010/11:USDA: Corn $5.25, Soy $11.35  2011/12:USDA: Corn $6.70, Soy $13.50 Futures (as of 9/8/2011):Corn $7.10, Soy $13.45

21. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: http://www.econ.iastate.edu/~chart/ Iowa Farm Outlook: http://www.econ.iastate.edu/ifo/ Ag Decision Maker: http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/