1. Nuclear Terrorism
Presentation to accompany reading in Allison in Science and Public Policy, Physics 3000
Final Scene of Dr. Strangelove satire portends inevitability of future nuclear holocaust

2. Key issues to be addressed
Difference between nuclear threats from countries and nuclear threats from terrorist groups such as Al Qaida.
Smuggling nuclear fission bombs into the country rather than delivering them by missile.
Building a nuclear bomb
The destructive power of dirty bombs compared to the destructive power of true nuclear fission bombs.
How has nuclear technology spread from the U.S. since WWII?
Difference between nuclear fission reactor technology for peaceful production of energy and how that same technology can lead to weapons.
Treaties and policies
Reactor safety

3. Comment on the following quotes from Nuclear Terrorism:
"It's not a matter of if, it's a matter of when!" (retired 4-star general and nuclear anti-terror expert, Eugene Habiger)
"Dirty nuclear bombs are weapons of mass disruption, not mass destruction" (Allison)
"If the essential nuclear materials are at hand, it is possible to make an atomic bomb using information available in the open literature." (John Foster, former director of Laurence Livermore Laboratories)
"The most urgent unmet national security threat to the U.S. today is the danger that weapons of mass destruction in Russia could be stolen ... and sold to terrorists" (Baker report to Pres. Bush, 2001)

4. How might terrorists get nuclear weapons into the U.S.?

5. How big is an atomic bomb?
Plutonium bomb
20 kiloton Nagasaki bomb
Uranium bomb 12 kilotons
Today's nuclear
weapons are much smaller

6. A shipping container is 10 x 10 x 30 ft

7. 20,000 shipping containers enter US Ports in 1 day, but only 3 or 4% are inspected
Only two or three out of 65 shipping containers would be inspected

8. How many atomic bombs can fit into one shipping container?

9. Soviet nuclear suitcase bomb
Are 84 of some 132 special KGB 1 kton suitcase nuclear weapons
unaccounted for as first claimed by Yeltsin's assistant for national
security affairs, General Alexander Lebed, and then retracted?

10. The World's Largest and Smallest Nuclear Weapons
The 100 megaton bomb and a 152 millimeter artillery projectile exhibited in the Chelyabinsk-70 museum in Russia during the visit of an American delegation

11. THIRD MILLENNIUM FOUNDATION PO Box 1105, Auburn, WA 98071 July 2003 abolishnukes.com

12. How hard is it to build an atomic bomb if you have the raw materials?

13. How easy is it to get plans to build an atomic bomb once you have the materials? Here are the results of a Google search on "Atomic Bomb Design"
Early Los Alamos implosion model for the plutonium bomb

14. More on the Los Alamos implosion device for a plutonium bomb (Google search)

15. Destructive power of nuclear weapons

16. Effects of dirty cobalt bomb on NYC
Simulation of long-term contamination due to a cobalt-60 bomb in New York City. The bomb contained the amount of cobalt-60 found in one rod at a food-irradiation facility.
Cancer deaths due to radiation: Inner ring: One per 100 people Middle ring: One per 1,000 Outer ring: One per 10,000 Courtesy Federation of American Scientists.

17. Effects of a megaton nuclear device exploding in Wall Street, NYC
1 Megaton Surface Blast: Pressure DamageThe fission bomb detonated over Hiroshima had an explosive blast equivalent to 12,500 tons of TNT. A 1 megaton hydrogen bomb, hypothetically detonated on the earth's surface, has about 80 times the blast power of that 1945 explosion.Radius of destructive circle:
1.7 miles12 pounds per square inch. At the center lies a crater 200 feet deep and 1000 feet in diameter. The rim of this crater is 1,000 feet wide and is composed of highly radioactive soil and debris. Nothing recognizable remains within about 3,200 feet (0.6 miles) from the center, except, perhaps, the remains of some buildings' foundations. At 1.7 miles, only some of the strongest buildings -- those made of reinforced, poured concrete -- are still standing. Ninety-eight percent of the population in this area are dead.
2.7 miles 5 psi Virtually everything is destroyed between the 12 and 5 psi rings. The walls of typical multi-story buildings, including apartment buildings, have been completely blown out. The bare, structural skeletons of more and more buildings rise above the debris as you approach the 5 psi ring. Single-family residences within this this area have been completely blown away -- only their foundations remain. Fifty percent of the population between the 12 and 5 psi rings are dead. Forty percent are injured.
4.7 miles 2 psi Any single-family residences that have not been completely destroyed are heavily damaged. The windows of office buildings have been blown away, as have some of their walls. The contents of these buildings' upper floors, including the people who were working there, are scattered on the street. A substantial amount of debris clutters the entire area. Five percent of the population between the 5 and 2 psi rings are dead. Forty-five percent are injured.
7.4 miles1 psi Residences are moderately damaged. Commercial buildings have sustained minimal damage. Twenty-five percent of the population between the 2 and 1 psi rings have been injured, mainly by flying glass and debris. Many others have been injured from thermal radiation -- the heat generated by the blast. The remaining seventy-five percent are unhurt.

18. Comparison of deaths from the 9/11 attack on the WTC, the recent Tsunami in Indonesia and a possible 10 kiloton atomic bomb detonation in NYC

19. The spread of nuclear technology

20. There are currently eight states that we know have successfully detonated nuclear weapons.
Five are considered to be “nuclear weapons states”, an internationally recognized status conferred by the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). In order of acquisition of nuclear weapons these are:
the United States of America
Russia (formerly the Soviet Union)
the United Kingdom
France
the People’s Republic of China
Since the formulation of the NPT, three non-signatory states of the NPT have conducted nuclear tests:
India
Pakistan
North Korea
In addition to these eight, Israel is believed to be an undeclared nuclear power
NPT 1968

21. When was their first test?

22. Nuclear warheads and plutonium production around the world

23. The spread of nuclear weapons from Pakistan
LIBYA
CHECHNYA
To N. Korea

25. BBC: Kahn's Role in the spread of nuclear weapons: YouTube Video Part 2 Part 3

26. General MacArthur wanted the option to use atomic warfare in Korea but was overruled by President Truman

27. Links

28. Websites where you can get reliable information concerning nuclear terrorism and weapons of mass destruction
NTI, the Nuclear Threat Initiative is working to reduce the global threats from nuclear, biological and chemical weapons and is co-chaired by Ted Turner and Sam Nunn. 
NCI, the Nuclear Control Institute Website links to a very long page specifically on Nuclear Terrorism which has many good additional links and news items on all aspects of this subject
Wikepedia, the free online encyclopedia has a good Website on technical and historical aspects of nuclear fission weapons.

29. Websites where you can get information on terrorist groups
Website maintained by the Council on Foreign Relations and the Markle Foundation

30. Videos
Chomsky at Stanford: Nuclear Terrorism

31. Nuclear Fission Reactors

32. The two faces of nuclear energy
Cheap electricity via
nuclear reactors, es-
pecially for 3rd world
More nuclear reactors could decrease US reliance on oil, reducing influence of mideast
oil-producing countries
BUT ARE THEY SAFE?
Spent nuclear fuel rods can be a target for terrorists
Plutonium can be re-
processed from spent
nuclear fuel rods
Possession of centrifuges means both LEU and HEU uranium can be produced
Fission of
uranium 235
or plutonium releases energy
Atomic weapons for nations and for terrorists

33. Eisenhower’s “Atoms for Peace” program
"Atoms for Peace" was the title of a speech delivered by Dwight D. Eisenhower to the UN General Assembly in New York City on December 8, 1953
The United States then launched an "Atoms for Peace" program that supplied equipment and information to schools, hospitals, and research institutions within the U.S. and throughout the world.
As part of the program, the U.S. supplied research reactors and HEU to forty-three countries, including Iran, Israel and South Africa
Today there is enough HEU at these sites for over a thousand nuclear weapons
Allison regards this as a mistake, and recommends either replacing the HEU technology with LEU technology or buying out the HEU and closing the sites (Pg. 155)

34. Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty
189 states signed the 1968 Nuclear Non- Proliferation Treaty, including all five Nuclear Weapons States (NWS): China, France, Russian Federation, UK, and USA.
Notable non-signatories to the NPT are Israel, Pakistan, and India (the latter two have since tested nuclear weapons, while Israel is considered by most to be an unacknowledged nuclear weapons state).
North Korea was once a signatory but withdrew in January As of October 9th, 2006, North Korea is a demonstrated nuclear power.
The NPT's main objectives are
to stop the further spread of nuclear weapons
to provide security for non-nuclear weapon states which have given up the nuclear option
to encourage international co-operation in the peaceful uses of nuclear energy
to pursue negotiations in good faith towards nuclear disarmament leading to the eventual elimination of nuclear weapons.
Article VI says that nuclear weapons states should pursue plans to reduce and liquidate their stockpiles. This formal obligation has not been adhered to by the NPT-recognized nuclear weapon states.
Many proposals for a complete and universal disarmament over the past 3 decades have been rejected under one pretext or the other.
The failure of the NPT-recognized nuclear weapon states to comply with their disarmament obligations upset many signatories, and provided a justification for some non-signatories to develop their own nuclear arsenals.

35. International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)
The IAEA was set up by unanimous resolution of the United Nations to help nations develop nuclear energy for peaceful purposes.
In addition, the IAEA safeguards arrangements to provide assurance to the international community that individual countries are honouring their commitments under the NPT.
The IAEA regularly inspects civil nuclear facilities to verify the accuracy of documentation supplied to it.
The agency checks inventories, and samples and analyzes materials.
Safeguards are designed to deter diversion of nuclear material by increasing the risk of early detection.
They are complemented by controls on the export of sensitive technology from countries such as UK and USA through voluntary bodies such as the Nuclear Suppliers Group.
The main concern of the IAEA is that uranium not be enriched beyond what is necessary for commercial civil plants, and that plutonium which is produced by nuclear reactors not be refined into a form that would be suitable for bomb production.

36. Deficiencies of Article IV of NPT
.. inalienable right of all the Parties to the Treaty to develop research, production and use of nuclear energy for peaceful purposes without discrimination and in conformity with articles I and II of Treaty.
Parties .. should ..participate in the fullest possible exchange of equipment, materials and scientific and technological information for the peaceful uses of nuclear energy. Parties to the Treaty shall cooperate in the further development of the applications of nuclear energy for peaceful purposes, especially in the territories of non-nuclear-weapon States Party to the Treaty, with due consideration for the needs of the developing areas of the world.
Deficiency (Allison pg. 155)
Same facilities that can produce LEU uranium or plutonium for reactor fuel can also be used to produce HEU or bomb-usable plutonium for nuclear weapons.
Proposed solution:
“Carrot”
Guarantee supply of reactor fuel to non-nuclear weapons states at less than half- cost
Dispose of their spent fuel
“Stick”
Enforcement by political isolation and economic sanctions +
Readiness to use covert and overt military force

37. The “Additional Protocol” of the NPT
In 1993 a program was initiated to strengthen and extend the classical safeguards system, and a model protocol was agreed by the IAEA
The measures boosted the IAEA's ability to detect undeclared nuclear activities, including those with no connection to the civil fuel cycle.
This would be achieved by the Additional Protocol.
This must be agreed by each non-weapons state with IAEA. Weapons states have agreed to accept the principles of the Additional Protocol.
Key elements of the Additional Protocol:
The IAEA is to be given considerably more information on nuclear and nuclear-related activities, including R & D, production of uranium and thorium (regardless of whether it is traded), and nuclear-related imports and exports.
IAEA inspectors will have greater rights of access. This will include any suspect location, it can be at short notice (e.g., two hours), and the IAEA can deploy environmental sampling and remote monitoring techniques to detect illicit activities.

38. Bush’s “Proliferation Security Initiative,”
A posse of sixteen nations will interdict suspected shipments of weapons of mass destruction and missiles (pg. 160)
Allison proposal -
Expand
Make proliferation an international crime
Allison: UN should ratify Bush admin. resolution of 2004
Require member states to “adopt and enforce laws to stop any non-state actor from being able to manufacture, acquire, possess, develop, transport or use nuclear, chemical or biological weapons and their means of delivery”
Permit use of military force to enforce compliance.

39. The Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) would ban all nuclear explosions in all environments, for military or civilian purposes.
As of February 2007 the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, India, and Pakistan have neither signed nor ratified the CTBT, and the People's Republic of China, Colombia, Egypt, Indonesia, Iran, Israel and the United States have not ratified it.
The United States, the PRC, India, Pakistan, and the DPRK are states possessing nuclear weapons that have not ratified the treaty. Israel has not ratified the treaty and is widely believed to possess nuclear weapons, although Israel has never officially confirmed or denied this.

40. What does Allison recommend that we do about Nuclear Terrorism?

41. Questions for class
Does Allison recommend that we combat nuclear terrorism by building more nuclear weapons?
No, since the terrorists are not States and we would not be able to retaliate against them using missiles with nuclear warheads anyway. We have more than enough nuclear weapons!
Why might building more nuclear fission reactors be a good idea to combat nuclear terrorism?
Thomas Friedman NY Times editorial – Yes, in order to decrease our reliance on oil and therefore block the flow of money to places like Iran which fund terrorism
According to Allison, how many billion dollars should be in the Federal budget to combat nuclear terrorism? Compare this to the budget for Iraq and defense.
On page 177, Allison states that we should be spending $5 - $10 billion for “total war” on nuclear terrorism. We have spent almost a trillion dollars on the war in Iraq.
What is the Nunn-Lugar Cooperative Threat Reduction Program and how much do we spend each year on it?
Page 177: It is a program designed to secure nuclear weapons and materials in the former Soviet Union. We spend $1 billion each year on it and the amount is decreasing rather than increasing.
Has the war in Iraq been successful in reducing nuclear terrorism or terrorism in general?
No. It has distracted us from fighting Al Qaida in Afghanistan and elsewhere and from finding Bin Laden. It has cost us a lot and Iraq has become a breeding place for more terrorists. It has also diminished our prestige and respect for us around the world, making it more difficult to secure international agreements to share intelligence regarding terrorism and cooperate in anti-terrorist measures. Example of Spain in which the pro US Spanish government was defeated over the Iraq issue.
27 starred questions from pgs (closed books)

42. Allison's NO's No loose nukes No new nascent nukes
Fix the Russia problem and extend solution everywhere
Nunn-Lugar authorized funds for DoD to secure Soviet nuclear warheads
Need plan to secure all nuclear weapons and weapons-usable material on the fastest possible timetable in Pakistan and other nuclear states
“Gold-standard”
No new nascent nukes
Prevent Iran and others from being able to produce nuclear weapons
Why does Iran need nuclear power reactors when it has cheap oil?
Reactors should run on LEU rather than HEU. LEU should be sold to them cheaply
All states should be prohibited from operating enrichment and reprocessing facilities
No new nuclear states
Current nuclear states are
US, Russia, Great Britain, France, China, India, Pakistan, Israel
Prevent Korea from becoming a new nuclear state!
Is it already too late?
Freeze their nuclear weapons activity at current level, dismantle their fissile material production facilities, remove fissile materials, and eliminate their current weapons
Offer carrot as well as stick: Economic and diplomatic package. Example of Libya

43. Explain Allison's YES's
Making the prevention of nuclear terrorism an absolute national priority
Fighting a strategically focused war on terrorism
Conducting a humble foreign policy
Building a global alliance against nuclear terrorism
Creating the intelligence capabilities required for success in the war on nuclear terrorism

44. Are nuclear fission reactors safe?

45. Nuclear power plant accidents
Chernobyl ->
3-mile island

46. Life imitates art. Movie about nuclear power plant accident preceded 3-Mile Island
James Bridges directed this 1979 film that became a worldwide sensation when, just weeks after its release, the Three Mile Island nuclear accident occurred.
Jane Fonda plays a television news reporter who is not taken very seriously until a routine story at the local nuclear power plant leads her to what may be a cover-up of epic proportions.

47. What happened at 3-Mile Island?
On March 28, 1979, the plant experienced a failure in the secondary, non-nuclear section. The main pumps stopped running, caused by either a mechanical or electrical failure, which prevented the steam generators from removing heat. First the turbine, then the reactor automatically shut down. Immediately, the pressure in the primary system (the nuclear portion of the plant) began to increase. In order to prevent that pressure from becoming excessive, the pilot-operated relief valve opened. The valve should have closed when the pressure decreased by a certain amount, but it did not. Signals available to the operator failed to show that the valve was still open.
As a result, cooling water poured out of the stuck-open valve and caused the core of the reactor to overheat. The operators did not realize that the plant was experiencing a loss-of-coolant accident. They took a series of actions that made conditions worse by simply reducing the flow of coolant through the core. Because adequate cooling was not available, the nuclear fuel overheated to the point at which the long metal tubes which hold the nuclear fuel pellets ruptured and the fuel pellets began to melt. It was later found that about one-half of the core melted during the early stages of the accident.
Although the TMI-2 plant suffered a severe core meltdown, the most dangerous kind of nuclear power accident, it did not produce the worst-case consequences that reactor experts had long feared. In a worst-case accident, the melting of nuclear fuel would lead to a breach of the walls of the containment building and release massive quantities of radiation to the environment. But this did not occur as a result of the Three Mile Island accident.

48. What happened at Chernobyl?
On April 26, 1986, a major accident, determined to have been a reactivity (power increase) accident, occurred at Unit 4 of the nuclear power station at Chernobyl, Ukraine, in the former USSR. The accident destroyed the reactor and released massive amounts of radioactivity into the environment.
After the accident, access to the area in an 18-mile radius around the plant was closed. The evacuated population numbered approximately 135,000. Pripyat, the town near Chernobyl where most of the workers at the plant lived before the 1986 accident, was evacuated several days after the accident, because of radiological contamination. It was included in the 30 km exclusion zone around the plant and is closed to all but those with authorized access.
Thirty-one people died in the Chernobyl accident and its immediate aftermath, most in fighting the fires that ensued. There have been news reports of additional deaths subsequent to the 31, but details are not available. Delayed health effects could be extensive, but estimates vary.
A moving documentary by a doomed cameraman.

50. The Shortfalls of Current Nuclear Terrorism Policy
“Not If, But When”
The Shortfalls of Current Nuclear Terrorism Policy

51. “The Bush Prevention Doctrine”
“For centuries, international law recognized that nations need not suffer an attack before they can lawfully take action to defend themselves against forces that present an imminent danger of attack. Legal scholars and international jurists often conditioned the legitimacy of preemption on the existence of an imminent threat—most often a visible mobilization of armies, navies, and air forces preparing to attack. We must adapt the concept of imminent threat to the capabilities and objectives of today’s adversaries…. The greater the threat, the greater is the risk of inaction…. To forestall or prevent such hostile acts by our adversaries, the United States will, if necessary, act preemptively.”

52. “The Bush Prevention Doctrine”
“Our comprehensive strategy to combat WMD includes:
“Proactive counterproliferation efforts.
“Strengthened nonproliferation efforts to prevent rogue states and terrorists from acquiring the materials, technologies, and expertise necessary for weapons of mass destruction.
“Effective consequence management to respond to the effects of WMD use, whether by terrorists or hostile states.”
White House National Security Council, National Security Strategy of the United States of America, Chapter 5
September 17,

53. Iraq
“At the time of the Gulf War, we acquired irrefutable proof that Iraq’s designs were not limited to the chemical weapons it had used against Iran and its own people, but also extended to the acquisition of nuclear weapons and biological agents.”
-National Security Strategy of the United States of America, 2002

54. Israel Attacks Iraq
French-built Osirak nuclear reactor, 15 miles south of Baghdad
Intended for peaceful energy production
June 1981: Israeli bombers destroy the facility
May have been as far as 5-10 years away from producing nuclear weapons

55. Then, who should we bomb? Iran Pakistan North Korea
Advanced air-defense systems
Nuclear facilities located underground
Cooperation in war in Afghanistan
Already possesses nukes
Pakistan
North Korea

57. “Proactive Counterproliferation”
Cooperative Threat Reduction Initiatives:
1991: Nunn-Lugar Act
1992: Freedom Support Act
1999: Expanded Threat Reduction Initiative

58. CTR

59. Funding
American contributions to the Cooperative Threat Reduction Initiative compared to other counterterrorism expenditures.

60. Breeder Reactors and Reprocessing Plants
1976: "The avoidance of proliferation must take precedence over economic interests…. U.S. domestic policies must be changed to defer the commercialization of chemical reprocessing of nuclear fuel which results in the separation of plutonium.” -President Gerald Ford
1977: President Jimmy Carter indefinitely banned commercial reprocessing and recycling of plutonium in the US.
1983: Congress terminates funding of the plutonium breeder program.

61. “Atoms for Peace” Part II?
Generation IV Program
3 out of the 6 reactor types being considered typically rely on reprocessing or recycling of plutonium.
Advanced Fuel Cycle Initiative
Working to develop reprocessing techniques in order to reduce high-level nuclear waste.