1. Dangers Big and Small Unconventional Threats to American Security

2. I. “Weapons of Mass Destruction:” Nuclear, Biological, and Chemical

3. A. Nuclear Weapons 1. Yield: Kilotons (KT) or Megatons (MT) of TNT Large weapons (MT range) require additional research

4. 2. Burst Type a. Surface: Smaller radius, lots of fallout: “dirty” b. Air: Larger radius, less fallout: “clean”

5. 2. Example: 100 KT Surface Blast, Fort Hood Main Gate 100 KT = larger than ordinary fission bomb, smaller than largest Russian weapons 100 KT = larger than ordinary fission bomb, smaller than largest Russian weapons

6. 15 psi: Virtually all dead 5 psi: 50% dead, 45% injured 2 psi: 5% dead, 45% injured) 1 psi: 25% injured

7. Compare: 1 MT Surface Blast

8. Compare: 20KT Surface Blast

9. Example: 100 KT Surface: Fallout 1 hour: Lethal2 hours: Lethal3 hours: Lethal4 hours: Lethal and 50% Lethal 5 hours: Lethal and 50% Lethal Possible Zone of Sickness

10. B. Biological Weapons 1. Characteristics: Dependent on type of agent and dispersal mechanism 2. Little military value: slow-acting, unpredictable, difficult to store 3. Primary purpose: Overload health care systems 4. Easy to build, difficult to make effective

11. 5. Historical Examples

12. C. Chemical Weapons 1. Purposes a. Shock on battlefield b. Reduced efficiency through protective gear 2. Mass Destruction? a. Limited effectiveness against prepared defender b. Huge quantities usually required 3. Examples: WWI, Iran-Iraq 4. Easiest to develop and use

13. D. Proliferation 1. Suspected Arsenals (May 2003): 9 Nuke, 5 Bioweapon, 11 Chemical ?

14. 2. Nuclear Stockpiles 2003 CountryWeaponsCapability United States 10,600Thermonuclear Russia18,000Thermonuclear United Kingdom 200Thermonuclear France350Thermonuclear China400Thermonuclear Israel 150 ? Fission ? India 35 ? Fission ? Pakistan 35 ? Fission North Korea A few? Fission

15. D. Other forms of Mass Destruction 1. Radiological weapons (“Dirty Bombs) – similar to persistent chemical weapons (plus radiation) 2. EMP Weapons (“E-Bombs”) – Damage electronics

16. E. International Law 1. Nuclear Proliferation a. Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) Non-members: India, Pakistan, Israel, North Korea (withdrew) Non-members: India, Pakistan, Israel, North Korea (withdrew) Legal nuclear powers: US, Russia, UK, France, China Legal nuclear powers: US, Russia, UK, France, China b. Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) Never signed: North Korea, India, Pakistan Never signed: North Korea, India, Pakistan Signed but not yet ratified: United States (rejected), Israel, China Signed but not yet ratified: United States (rejected), Israel, China 2. Biological Proliferation: Biological Weapons Convention (BWC) a. Non-members: Israel, Syria (signed), Egypt (signed) b. Against verification: United States 3. Chemical Proliferation: Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC) a. Never signed: Iraq, Egypt, Syria, Libya, North Korea b. Signed but not yet ratified: Israel c. Ratified but limiting inspections: United States, Pakistan

17. 4. Current violations CountryNPTBWCCWC North Korea No (past violator) Yes United States Possible RussiaYes IranPossibleYesYes ChinaYes

18. II. Terrorism A. Three central facts about terrorism 1. Terrorism is old – and might actually be decreasing

19. 2. Terrorism is a global problem, not just a Middle Eastern one

21. Global Problem (2001)

22. 3. Terrorism is not random or “crazy” a. Psychology Suicide bombers Suicide bombers not suicidal Often well- educated, Often well- educated, middle class b. Identifiable motives

23. c. Substitution of means Metal detectors  Fewer Skyjackings, More Hostage-Takings and Assassinations Metal detectors  Fewer Skyjackings, More Hostage-Takings and Assassinations

24. c. Substitution of means Metal detectors  Fewer Skyjackings, More Hostage-Takings and Assassinations Metal detectors  Fewer Skyjackings, More Hostage-Takings and Assassinations

25. c. Substitution of means Metal detectors  Fewer Skyjackings, More Hostage-Takings and Assassinations Metal detectors  Fewer Skyjackings, More Hostage-Takings and Assassinations

26. B. Defining Terrorism

27. 1. FBI Definition The unlawful use of force and violence against persons or property to intimidate or coerce a government, the civilian population, or any segment thereof, in furtherance of political or social objectives. The unlawful use of force and violence against persons or property to intimidate or coerce a government, the civilian population, or any segment thereof, in furtherance of political or social objectives. Government cannot commit terrorism (unlawful) Government cannot commit terrorism (unlawful) Both civilian and military targets Both civilian and military targets Need not cause death or injury Need not cause death or injury Goal must be intimidation Goal must be intimidation Distinct from crime: Political or social objectives Distinct from crime: Political or social objectives

28. 2. Department of State Premeditated, politically motivated violence perpetrated against noncombatant targets by subnational groups or clandestine agents, usually intended to influence an audience. Premeditated, politically motivated violence perpetrated against noncombatant targets by subnational groups or clandestine agents, usually intended to influence an audience. Governments can commit terrorism – but only secretly Governments can commit terrorism – but only secretly Noncombatant targets only Noncombatant targets only Must be violent Must be violent Need not intimidate Need not intimidate Distinct from crime: political violence Distinct from crime: political violence

29. 3. International Law No agreed definition No agreed definition Proposal: “Peacetime equivalent of war crimes.” Proposal: “Peacetime equivalent of war crimes.” Bans targeting civilians Bans targeting civilians Bans nonmilitary violence (i.e. hostage-taking) Bans nonmilitary violence (i.e. hostage-taking) Governs both states and non-state actors Governs both states and non-state actors

30. 4. Can You Solve the Puzzle? Your definition in action