Dr. Walter Hays US Geological Survey (Retired) Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction

Preparedness Emergency Response ESSENTIAL PILLARS OF EARTHQUAKE DISASTER RESILIENCE ESSENTIAL PILLARS OF EARTHQUAKE DISASTER RESILIENCE

EVERY TIME AN EARTHQUAKE DISASTER OCCURS, WE HAVE NEW KNOWLEDGE TO ADD TO OUR “BOOKS OF KNOWLEDGE” ON EMERGENCY RESPONSE

BREAKING NEWS August 24, 2014

THE MAGNITUDE 6.0 NAPA VALLEY, CA EARTHQUAKE 3:20 AM, AUGUST 24, 2014 Strongest in area since the M Loma Prieta Quake, BUT about 1/30 th the energy release

LOCATION: AUGUST 24 NAPA VALLEY EARTHQUAKE

USGS’ SHAKE MAP: AUGUST 24 NAPA VALLEY EARTHQUAKE

AUGUST 24: EARLY REPORTS OF SOCIOECONOMIC IMPACTS Local damage to buildings and houses, injuries, but no deaths (yet) Damage to contents Loss of Power Damage to Highway 12 Local fires Aftershocks

GLOBAL AN D LOCAL CONTEXTS

PACIFIC RING OF FIRE Prone to earthquakes and tsunamis

STATES WITH THE MOST EATHQUAKE ACTIVITY At least one event every 30 years 0 events in 30 years

YOUR COMMUNITY YOUR COMMUNITY DATA BASES AND INFORMATION HAZARDS: GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN UP AFTERSHOCKS RISK ACCEPTABLE RISK UNACCEPTABLE RISK BOOKS OF KNOWLEDGE PREPAREDNESS PROTECTION EM RESPONSE RECOSTRUCTION AND RECOVERY EARTHQUAKE DISASTER RESILIENCE EARTHQUAKE DISASTER RESILIENCE MONITORING HAZARD MAPS INVENTORY VULNERABILITY LOCATION

TYPICAL SITUATIONS ENCOUNTERED DURING EM. RESPONSE DAMAGE; DEBRIS COLLAPSE TRAPPED SURVIVORS SEARCH AND RESCUE CLOCK FIRES INUNDATION EVACUATION CENTERS EM. MEDICAL MASS CARE HAZ MAT RELEASE INJURIES DEATHS

THE GOAL: DEMANDS ON COMMUNITY DEMANDS ON COMMUNITY EARTHQUAKE DISASTER RESILIENCE: CAPABILITIES OF COMMUNITY

REALITY: UNANTICIPATED DEMANDS ON COMMUNITY LACK OF EARTHQUAKE PREPAREDNESS INSUFFICIENT PREPAREDNESS OF COMMUNITY

REALITY: URGENT DEMANDS ON COMMUNITY LACK OF EMERGENCY RESPONSE CAPABILITY INSUFFICIENT CAPABILITY TO RESPOND TO DEMANDS ON COMMUNITY

WHAT IS EARTHQUAKE PREPAREDNESS? A state of readiness on individual, urban, sub-regional, and national scales that is sufficient to keep the expected and unexpected effects of an earthquake from causing a disaster

ANTICIPATION IS THE KEY TO PREPAREDNESS Strong ground shaking Tsunami wave run up Liquefaction Landslides Aftershocks Vulnerabilities

STRONG GROUND SHAKING

GROUND SHAKING CAUSES SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC LOSSES

AS COMMUNITY PREPAREDNESS INCREASES, SO DOES PROTECTION OF BUILDINGS AND INFRASTRUCTURE

WHAT IS PROTECTION? A legally mandated state of planning and verified robustness, strength, and ductility for important buildings and essential - critical infrastructure to prevent loss of function

WHAT IS EMERGENCY RESPONSE All of the scripted and unscripted heroic and historic responses during the “race against time” after a quake to save lives and protect property

KEY ELEMENTS OF PREPAREDNESS Know your seimic activity (i.e., Seismicity ) Know your fault zones Know your Vulnerabilites

FAULTS

THE USA’S MOST NOTABLE PLATE BOUNDARY FAULT ZONE San Andreas Fault 600 Miles long Source of M8 Earthquakes in 1847 and 1906

THE USA’S OTHER NOTABLE PLATE BOUNDARY FAULT ZONE The Juan De Faca Plate Subducting beneath Wash and Oregon Potential for M9.0

ONE OF THE USA’S TWO NOTABLE INTRA-PLATE FAULT ZONES Wasatch Fault, Utah 250 Miles long Potential source of M earthquake

ONE OF THE USA’S TWO NOTABLE INTRA-PLATE FAULT ZONES New Madrid Seismic ZoneNew Madrid Seismic Zone Source of four (4) M* earthquakes in Source of four (4) M* earthquakes in

Community preparedness and emergency management response increases as the community’s capability to anticipate what will increases

EARTHQUAKE SCENARIOS A DISASTER RISK REDUCTION TECHNIQUE FOR USE IN ANY EARTHQUAKE-PRONE AREA

FACILITATES ADVANCE PLANNING FOR IMPLEMENTING ”INTELLIGENT EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT” PRACTICES BEFORE PAST MAJOR EARTHQUAKES RECUR AND READINESS WHEN THEY DO Source: US Geological Survey and many public-private sector partners

HAZARDSHAZARDS ELEMENTS OF A SCENARIO EXPOSUREEXPOSURE VULNERABILITYVULNERABILITY LOCATIONLOCATION RISKRISK

INTEGRATED KNOWLEDGE WHAT IS LIKELY TO HAPPEN WHERE WHY HOW BAD WHAT CAN WE DO TO MINIMIZE THE SOCIOECONOMIC IMPACTS INTEGRATED KNOWLEDGE WHAT IS LIKELY TO HAPPEN WHERE WHY HOW BAD WHAT CAN WE DO TO MINIMIZE THE SOCIOECONOMIC IMPACTS EARTHQUAKE SCENARIO EARTHQUAKE RISK REDUCTION POSTDISASTER INVESTIGATIONS MONITORING AND RESEARCH MONITORING AND RESEARCH

NORTHERN CALIFORNIA SCENARIO (developed in 2008) BASED ON INTEGRATED KNOWLEDGE FROM MONITORING, RESEACH, AND POSTEARTHQUAKE STUDIES SINCE APRIL 1906

NORTHERN CALIFORNIA: WHAT NEEDS TO BE ANTICIPATED? How likely is a damaging earthquake to occur? Where and when will it occur? How big will it be? How strong will its potential disaster agents be?

The Bay Area is prone to large earthquakes because it straddles the boundary between two major tectonic plates — the North American and Pacific plates.

Much of the stress release happens on the San Andreas fault, but some of it is relieved by the Hayward fault and other smaller parallel faults.

Because of its location in the densely populated Bay area of 7 million people, a Hayward fault quake is likely to cause worse societal impacts than a San Andreas quake and be one of the nation's largest natural disasters.

DAMAGEDAMAGE PHYSICAL EFFECTS CAUSE SOCIETAL IMPACTS AND RISK COLLAPSECOLLAPSE LOSS OF FUNCTION ECONOMIC LOSS RISKRISK

WHAT NEEDS TO BE ANTICIPATED (Continued)? What kinds of buildings are at risk? What kinds of basic, essential, and critical infrastructure are at risk? What are the physical vulnerabilities?

Potentially affecting 5 million people, a Hayward fault quake damages homes, schools, senior centers, hospitals, businesses, the Bay bridge, and the campus of University of California, Berkeley.

WHAT NEEDS TO BE ANTICIPATED (Continued)? What are the social vulnerabilities? What is the likely damage distribution? What are the HAT ARE THE LIKELY CASUALTIES, SOCIO- ECONOMIC, AND ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS?

Damage will be extensive to buildings and infrastructure. The region's transportation infrastructure and water delivery systems are expected to take a major hit in a M7.0 or greater earthquake.

A M7.0 earthquake on the Hayward fault will cause an estimated $210 billion dollars in damage.

DAMAGE: AUGUST 24 NAPA VALLEY EARTHQUAKE

DAMAGE TO HIGHWAY 12: AUGUST 24 NAPA VALLEY EARTHQUAKE

CONCLUSION EVERY TIME AN EARTHQUAKE DISASTER OCCURS, WE HAVE NEW KNOWLEDGE TO ADD TO OUR “BOOKS OF KNOWLEDGE” ON ANTICIPATING FUTURE IMPACTS