1. THE FIVE PILLARS OF DISASTER RESILIENCE Part 3: Early Warning Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, Vienna, Virginia, USA

2. YOURNATIONYOURNATION DATA BASES AND INFORMATION HAZARDS: GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN UP AFTERSHOCKS MONITORING HAZARD MAPS INVENTORY VULNERABILITY LOCATIONR RISK ACCEPTABLE RISK UNACCEPTABLE RISK BOOKS OF KNOWLEDGE PREPAREDNESS PROTECTION EARLY WARNING EM RESPONSE RECOVERY 5 PILLARS OF DISASTER RESILIENCE

3. DISASTER RESILIENCE IS A FAILED POLICY WITHOUT THE ADOPTION AND IMPLEMENTATION OF FIVE INTEGRATED POLICIES (i.e., The Five Pillars of Disaster Resilience)

4. WHAT IS PREPAREDNESS, THE FIRST PILLAR? (Preparedness is a state of readiness on individual, urban, sub-regional, and national scales that is sufficient to keep the disaster agents of a natural hazard from causing a disaster (Preparedness is a state of readiness on individual, urban, sub-regional, and national scales that is sufficient to keep the disaster agents of a natural hazard from causing a disaster

5. WHAT IS PROTECTION, THE SECOND PILLAR? (Protection is a mandated state of robustness and strength for important buildings and essential - critical infrastructure to prevent loss of function when a natural hazard ocurs (Protection is a mandated state of robustness and strength for important buildings and essential - critical infrastructure to prevent loss of function when a natural hazard ocurs

6. EARLY WARNING, THE THIRD PILLAR, IS ALSO ESSENTIAL FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE

7. WHAT IS EARLY WARNING? (Early Warning is a state of monitoring and messaging “in the moment” that activates evacuation plans to save lives and accelerates site-specific preparedness to protect property (Early Warning is a state of monitoring and messaging “in the moment” that activates evacuation plans to save lives and accelerates site-specific preparedness to protect property

8. KEY ELEMENTS OF MONITORING Land-, air-, ocean-, and satellite- based instrument packages and systems that monitor signals in real time related to the creation, formation, movement, and changes of the potential disaster agents of hurricanes, typhoons, cyclones, earthquakes and tsunamis, volcanic eruptions, and wildfires.

9. KEY ELEMENTS OF MONITORING (continued) The data on the creation, formation, and movement of potential disaster agents generated by hurricanes and typhoons, earthquakes and tsunamis, volcanic eruptions, and wildfires are transmitted to analysis centers for analysis and messaging, as appropriate, on the perceived threats.

10. KEY ELEMENTS OF MESSAGING A CREDIBLE SOURCE: e.g., National Hurricane Centers; Tsunami Warning Center. others THE MESSAGE: e.g., The threat, where and when it will happen; actions that are appropriate to go out of harm’s way, or, if not evacuating, to accelerate increased preparedness

11. KEY ELEMENTS OF MESSAGING COMMUNICATION CHANNELS: satellite –based, real-time, electronic messaging processes that connect the data analysis centers to institutions in every nation as well as global media outlets. THE RECEIVERS: Some, but not all of the people who receive the message, will understand and respond.

12. EXAMPLES OF PEOPLE TYPICALLY EVACUATED PEOPLE LIVING IN THE ”RED DANGER ZONES” SCHOOL CHILDREN THE ELDERLY AND HANDICAPPED PATIENTS IN HOSPITALS, TOURISTS HOMELESS

13. EXAMPLES OF THINGS TYPICALLY EVACUATED FISHING BOATS NAVAL SHIPS MILITARY AIRCRAFT

14. EXAMPLES OF SITE-SPECIFIC “ACCELERATED PREPAREDNESS ” HOUSES, SCHOOLS, AND HOSPITALS IN THE ”RED DANGER ZONE” BUSINESSES AND HOTELS IN THE ”RED DANGER ZONES”

15. THE GOAL DEMANDS ON COMMUNITY DEMANDS ON COMMUNITY DISASTER RESILIENCE: CAPABILITIES OF COMMUNITY

16. REALITY UNANTICIPATED DEMANDS ON COMMUNITY LACK OF DISASTER RESILIENCE INSUFFICIENT EARLY WARNING BEFORE A NATURAL HAZARD STRIKES

17. ANY COMMUNITY CAN INCREASE ITS STATE-OF- MONITORING AND MESSAGING ON THE POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS OF ANY NATURAL HAZARD

18. THE STATE-OF-MONITORING AND MESSAGING IN “THE MOMENT” INCREASES AS A COMMUNITY’S CAPABILITY TO UNDERSTAND WHAT WILL LIKELY HAPPEN INCREASES

19. NATURAL HAZARDS FOR WHICH EVACUATION IS TYPICAL FLOODS HURRICANES TYPHOONS TSUNAMIS VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS WILDFIRES HIGH BENEFIT/COST FOR SAVING LIVES, BUT LOW BEMEFIT/COST FOR PROTECTING PROPERTY GOAL: MOVE PEOPLE OUT OF HARM’S WAY

20. EXAMPLE 1: A NEED FOR EARLY WARNING HURRICANE “IKE” FROM THE ISS: “ IN THE MOMENT” FACILITATION OF EVACUATION AND/OR SITE- SPECIFIC PREPAREDNESS

21. EXAMPLE 2: A NEED FOR EARLY WARNING CHILE: “ IN THE MOMENT” FACIL- ITATION OF EVACUATION AND/OR SITE- SPECIFIC PREPAREDNESS

22. EXAMPLE 3: A NEED FOR EARLY WARNING INDONESIA TSUNAMI: “ IN THE MOMENT” FACIL- ITATION OF EVACUATION AND/OR SITE- SPECIFIC PREPAREDNESS

23. EXAMPLE 4: A NEED FOR EARLY WARNING MEMPHIS, TN (USA) FLOOD THREAT: “ IN THE MOMENT” FACIL- ITATION OF EVACUATION AND/OR SITE- SPECIFIC PRE- PAREDNESS

24. EXAMPLE 5: A NEED FOR EARLY WARNING AUSTRALIA 2006’S CYCLONE TRACKS: “ IN THE MOMENT” FACIL- ITATION OF EVACUATION AND/OR SITE- SPECIFIC PREPAREDNESS

25. EXAMPLE 6: A NEED FOR EARLY WARNING AUSTRALIA CYCLONE HAMISH: “ IN THE MOMENT” FACILITATION OF EVACUATION AND/OR SITE- SPECIFIC PREPAREDNESS

26. EXAMPLE 7: A NEED FOR EARLY WARNING ATLANTIC BASIN 2012’s STORM TRACKS: “ IN THE MOMENT” FACIL- ITATION OF EVACUATION AND/OR SITE- SPECIFIC PREPAREDNESS

27. EXAMPLE 8: A NEED FOR EARLY WARNING PADANG, INDO- NESIA FLOODING: “ IN THE MOMENT” FACILITATION OF EVACUATION AND/OR SITE-SPECIFIC PREPAREDNESS

28. EXAMPLE 9: A NEED FOR EARLY WARNING BRISBANE AUS- TRALIA FLOODING : “ IN THE MOMENT” FACILITATION OF EVACUATION AND/OR SITE- SPECIFIC PREPAREDNESS

29. EXAMPLE 10: A NEED FOR EARLY WARNING MYANMAR CYCLONE NARGIS: “ IN THE MOMENT” EARLY WARNING FAILED; NO EVACUATION AND NO SITE- SPECIFIC PREP- AREDNESS

30. EXAMPLE 11: A NEED FOR EARLY WARNING MYANMAR CY- CLONE NARGIS: “ AFTER THE MOMENT” EVAC- UATION OF THE HOMELESS SUR- VIVORS

31. EXAMPLE 12: A NEED FOR EARLY WARNING MYANMAR CYCLONE NARGIS: “AFTER THE MOMENT” EVACUATION OF SURVIVORS IN “RED ZONE.”

32. EXAMPLE 13: A NEED FOR EARLY WARNING AMERICAN SAMOA TSUNAMI: “ IN THE MOMENT” FACIL- ITATION OF EVACUATION OF SURVIVORS IN “RED ZONE”AND/OR SITE- SPECIFIC PREP- AREDNESS

33. EXAMPLE 14: A NEED FOR EARLY WARNING CHILE 2012 TSUNAMI TRAVEL PATH: “ IN THE MOMENT” FACILITATION OF EVACUATION OF PEOPLE IN “RED ZONES”AND/OR SITE-SPECIFIC PRE- PAREDNESS

34. EXAMPLE 15: A NEED FOR EARLY WARNING NIGERIA 2012 FLOOD: “ IN THE MOMENT” FACIL- ITATION OF EVACUATION OF PEOPLE IN “RED ZONE.”

35. EXAMPLE 16: A NEED FOR EARLY WARNING NORTH DAKOTA (USA) FLOOD: “ IN THE MOMENT” FACILITATION OF “RED ZONE” SITE- SPECIFIC PREP- AREDNESS (SAND BAG PREPARATION)

36. EXAMPLE 17: A NEED FOR EARLY WARNING CORPUS CHRISTI, TX (USA) TROPICAL STORM DOLLY: “ IN THE MOMENT” FACILITATION OF “RED ZONE” SITE- SPECIFIC PRE- PAREDNESS

37. EXAMPLE 18: A NEED FOR EARLY WARNING NORTH CAROLINA (USA) HURRICANE EARL: “ IN THE MOMENT” FACIL- ITATION OF EVACUATION FROM OUTER BANKS

38. EXAMPLE 19: A NEED FOR EARLY WARNING 2009’s TYPHOON KETSANA: “ IN THE MOMENT” FACIL- ITATION OF EVACUATION OF PEOPLE IN “RED ZONE” TO A GYMN

39. EXAMPLE 20: A NEED FOR EARLY WARNING ATHENS GREECE 2009’s WILDFIRE: “ IN THE MOMENT” FACILITATION OF EVACUATION OF PEOPLE IN THE “RED ZONE.

40. EXAMPLE 22: A NEED FOR EARLY WARNING JAPAN 2011’S TSUNAMI: “ IN THE MOMENT” FACILITATION OF EVACUATION OF PEOPLE IN THE “RED ZONE WAS ONLY 45 MINUTES LONG.

41. EXAMPLE 21: A NEED FOR EARLY WARNING MEXICO 2013’s HURRICANE MANUEL: “ IN THE MOMENT” FACILITATION OF EVACUATION OF TOURISTS.

42. CONCLUSION With Today’s Books of Knowledge, Innovative Capacity Building to Improve Early Warning for Floods, Hurricanes, Typhoons, Volcanic Eruptions, and Wildfires is possible.