2. DISASTER PREPAREDNESS A KEY ELEMENT OF BECOMING DISASTER RESILIENT Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, University of North Carolina, USA

3. A FOCUS ON WHAT HAS BEEN LEARNED FROM DISASTER PLANNING SCENARIOS NOTE: THE TECHNIQUE WAS EXPLAINED LAST LECTURE

4. EXAMPLES: SCENARIO EARTHQUAKES IN CALIFORNIA, MID- AMERICA, AND TOKAI AREA, JAPAN

5. NOTE: HAZARD MAPS ARE BASED ON A PROBABILISTIC MODEL

6. NOTE: RISK MODELING IS BASED ON HAZUS-MH (OR A COMPARABLE MODEL)

8. MID-AMERICA GROUND SHAKING HAZARD MAP

10. PURPOSE: I nformation from disaster scenarios will facilitate the adoption and implementation of policies and plans to enable a city to protect essential facilities and critical infrastructure

11. CITYCITY DATA BASES AND INFORMATION HAZARDS: GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN UP AFTERSHOCKS EARTHQUAKES INVENTORY VULNERABILITY LOCATION RISK ASSESSMENT RISK ACCEPTABLE RISK UNACCEPTABLE RISK GOAL: DISASTER RESILIENCE PREPAREDNESS PROTECTION EMERGENCY RESPONSE RECOVERY IENCE FOUR PILLARS OF RESILIENCE

12. DISASTERS OCCUR WHEN--- A CITY’S (COMMUNITY’S) PUBLIC POLICIES LEAVE IT … UN—PREPARED FOR THE INEVITABLE NATURAL HAZARDS

13. GLOBAL GOAL: FROM UN—PREPARED TO A STATE OF PREPAREDNESS FOR ALL CITIES AND ALL NATURAL HAZARDS

14. DISASTER SCENARIOS CAN PROVIDE POLICY BREAKTHROUGHS With a disaster scenario, a city’s leaders can make the decisions on what it will do to control and reduce its perceived risks (e.g., by adopting and implementing policies such as building codes, and lifeline standards to protect, and retrofit and rehabilitation to protect and sustain).

15. DISASTER SCENARIOS CAN PROVIDE POLICY BREAKTHROUGHS Much of the UNCERTAINTY in future emergency response and recovery phases will be eliminated if we can make the VIRTUAL REALITY of an EARTHQUAKE SCENARIO look like REALITY that we are prepared to cope with.

16. EXAMPLE ONE: EARTHQUAKE DISASTER PLANNING SCENARIO FOR SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA

17. (SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA): EARTH- QUAKE DISASTER PLANNING SCENARIO WHERE WILL THE EARTHQUAKE OCCUR? HOW BIG? HOW CLOSE? HOW DEEP? WHEN? THE DISASTER AGENTS? VULNERABILITIES IN THE BUILT ENVIRONMENT? EXPECTED DAMAGE? EXPECTED SOCIO- ECONOMIC IMPACTS? WHERE WILL THE EARTHQUAKE OCCUR? HOW BIG? HOW CLOSE? HOW DEEP? WHEN? THE DISASTER AGENTS? VULNERABILITIES IN THE BUILT ENVIRONMENT? EXPECTED DAMAGE? EXPECTED SOCIO- ECONOMIC IMPACTS?

18. ADVANCE PLANNING SO THAT CALIFORNIA WILL BE READY WHEN THE INEVITABLE “BIG ONES” RECUR Source: US Geological Survey

19. 18 California Catastrophic Disaster Planning Scenario Major impact to large metropolitan areas Consequences would eclipse Katrina Large area of impact - 155,959 Sq. Miles Highly populated areas - 36M+ Significant earthquake risk throughout State

20. 19 California Catastrophic Disaster Planning Scenario Tsunami risk Mass Evacuation Significant infrastructure impacts Response problems due to roadway collapse/blockage Estimated loss -- > $400B

21. Because of its location in the densely populated Bay area of 7 million people, an earthquake on the Hayward fault is likely to be one of the nation's biggest natural disasters.

23. A Hayward fault earthquake potentially affects 5 million people, and damages homes, schools, senior centers, hospitals, businesses, the Bay bridge, and the campus of UC Berkeley.

25. A M 7.0 earthquake on the Hayward fault will cause an estimated $210 billion dollars in damage. The region's transportation infrastructure and water delivery systems will take a major hit.

26. EXAMPLE TWO: EARTHQUAKE DISASTER PLANNING SCENARIO FOR LOS ANGELES AREA

27. (LAS ANGELES AREA): EARTHQUAKE DISASTER PLANNING SCENARIO WHERE WILL THE EARTHQUAKE OCCUR? HOW BIG? HOW CLOSE? HOW DEEP? WHEN? THE DISASTER AGENTS? VULNERABILITIES IN THE BUILT ENVIRONMENT? EXPECTED DAMAGE? EXPECTED SOCIO- ECONOMIC IMPACTS? WHERE WILL THE EARTHQUAKE OCCUR? HOW BIG? HOW CLOSE? HOW DEEP? WHEN? THE DISASTER AGENTS? VULNERABILITIES IN THE BUILT ENVIRONMENT? EXPECTED DAMAGE? EXPECTED SOCIO- ECONOMIC IMPACTS?

29. The goal in the ShakeOut Scenario is to identify the physical, social and economic consequences of a major earthquake in southern California, and in so doing, enable end users to identify what they can change now—before the earthquake—in order to avoid catastrophic impacts after the inevitable earthquake occurs.

31. The magnitude 7.8 ShakeOut earthquake causes about 1,800 deaths and $213 billion of economic losses.

32. The estimates of about 1800 deaths and $213 billion of economic losses indicate that much more retrofitting is still needed to protect and sustain.

33. EXAMPLE THREE: EARTHQUAKE DISASTER PLANNING SCENARIO FOR MEMPHIS, TN AREA

34. (MEMPHIS, TN AREA): EARTHQUAKE DISASTER PLANNING SCENARIO WHERE WILL THE EARTHQUAKE OCCUR? HOW BIG? HOW CLOSE? HOW DEEP? WHEN? THE DISASTER AGENTS? VULNERABILITIES IN THE BUILT ENVIRONMENT? EXPECTED DAMAGE? EXPECTED SOCIO- ECONOMIC IMPACTS? WHERE WILL THE EARTHQUAKE OCCUR? HOW BIG? HOW CLOSE? HOW DEEP? WHEN? THE DISASTER AGENTS? VULNERABILITIES IN THE BUILT ENVIRONMENT? EXPECTED DAMAGE? EXPECTED SOCIO- ECONOMIC IMPACTS?

35. NEW MADRID SEISMIC ZONE SCENARIO JUNE 2010 AND MARCH 2008 ASSUMPTIONS: M7.7 2:00 AM http://mae.cee.illinois.edu/news/reportusa2.ht ml

36.  The New Madrid Seismic Zone, which covers parts of eight states: Alabama, Mississippi, Arkansas, Illinois, Indiana, Missouri, Kentucky, and Tennessee, was the source of four great earthquakes (M8.0 to 8.8) in 1811- 1812.

37.  Damage and loss estimates and the planning assumptions are predicated on the occurrence of a magnitude 7.7 earthquake at 2:00 am.

38.  The epicenter is assumed to be located approximately 33 miles North North-West of Memphis, TN.

39. 38 St. Louis 1.5-2 Million Rural Pop. 8-9 million 160–200 Cities Memphis 1-1.5 Million MO IL IN KY TN AL MS AR New Madrid Seismic Zone Catastrophic Disaster Planning Scenario Approximately 12 million people at high risk Consequences eclipse Katrina impact area - 126,575 Sq Miles 44M people in eight-State region Multiple jurisdictions and Governors Directly Impacted States Indirectly Impacted States

40. 39 St. Louis 1.5-2 Million Rural Pop. 8-9 million 160–200 Cities Memphis 1-1.5 Million MO IL IN KY TN AL MS AR New Madrid Seismic Zone Catastrophic Disaster Planning Scenario Approximately 12 million people at high risk Significant loss of infrastructure Response problems hindered by long aftershock sequence Estimated loss -- $300B+ Severe weather & evacuation issues Directly Impacted States Indirectly Impacted States

41. 40 St. Louis 1.5-2 Million Rural Pop. 8-9 million 160–200 Cities Memphis 1-1.5 Million MO IL IN KY TN AL MS AR New Madrid Seismic Zone Catastrophic Disaster Planning Scenario Approximately 12 million people at high risk Nearly 86,000 total casualties 3,500 fatalities Estimated loss -- $300B+ Directly Impacted States Indirectly Impacted States

42. 715,000 buildings will sustain heavy damage, and 100,000 will be completely destroyed from strong ground shaking.

43. Utilities will be interrupted, leaving 2.5 MILLION without power, and water, gas, and waste disposal outages will occur over a wide area.

44. Transportation systems (highways, bridges, airports, river traffic) throughout the region will lose their function.

45.  The State of Tennessee will incur the highest level of damage and social impacts, with over 250,000 buildings moderately or severely damaged.

46. Over 260,000 people will likely be displaced and over 80,000 casualties (injuries and fatalities) are expected.

47. Total direct economic losses surpass $56 billion.

48. EXAMPLE FOUR: EARTHQUAKE DISASTER PLANNING SCENARIO FOR TOKYO, JAPAN AREA

49. (TOKYO, JAPAN AREA): EARTHQUAKE DISASTER PLANNING SCENARIO WHERE WILL THE EARTHQUAKE OCCUR? HOW BIG? HOW CLOSE? HOW DEEP? WHEN? THE DISASTER AGENTS? VULNERABILITIES IN THE BUILT ENVIRONMENT? EXPECTED DAMAGE? EXPECTED SOCIO- ECONOMIC IMPACTS? WHERE WILL THE EARTHQUAKE OCCUR? HOW BIG? HOW CLOSE? HOW DEEP? WHEN? THE DISASTER AGENTS? VULNERABILITIES IN THE BUILT ENVIRONMENT? EXPECTED DAMAGE? EXPECTED SOCIO- ECONOMIC IMPACTS?

50. EARTHQUAKE DISASTER PLANNING SCENARIO TOKAI, JAPAN EARTHQUAKE ZONE 160 KM FROM TOKYO PREPARING FOR AN EMINENT DISASTER

51. REGIONAL MAP

52. LOCATION OF TOKAI

53. TOKAI EARTHQUAKE TECTONICS The section along Tokai, which has a recurrence interval of 100-150 years for large- magnitude earthquakes, has not ruptured since 1854.

54. LOSSES: TOKAI EARTHQUAKE Estimated deaths — between 7,900 and 9,200 depending on the amount of advance warning people have, the time of day when it occurs, and the tsunami. Property damage ---as much as $310 billion.

55. IMPACTS: TOKAI EARTHQUAKE Landslides -- 6,449 specific locations Structures susceptible to quake-related fires – 58,402 specific houses

56. TODAY’S POLICY: PREPARE FOR THE TOKAI EARTHQUAKE NOW The precise area along the Pacific coast-- about 160 km (100 mi) southwest of Tokyo-- that is expected to be affected has been delineated by scientific studies, and is, by law, the focus of intensive preparations to become earthquake resilient..

57. POLICY: PROVIDE ADVANCE WARNING TO THE PEOPLE The Government of Japan is currently deploying strain meters throughout the Tokai area to record PRE-QUAKE slip and then provide as much advance warning as possible.

58. FROM A DISASTER SCENARIO TO PUBLIC POLICY A disaster scenario facilitates dialogue on the best ways to form public policy for protecting the city’s essential facilities and critical infra- structure, another key element of disaster resilience.

59. THE GOAL OF EVERY CITY WELL PREPARED FOR ALL NATURAL HAZARDS (E.G., FLOODS, SEVERE WINDSTORMS, EARTHQUAKES, ETC.)