Ductless Heat Pumps (DHP) in Single Family Homes with Zonal Electric Heat Proven UES Measure Proposal Regional Technical Forum October 16, 2013

Presentation Outline Measure Overview Staff Highlighted Areas Presentation of Measure Documents – UES Analysis and Results RTF Staff Recommendations Proposed Decision 2

Measure Overview Review the Measure Properties section on the “Summary” tab of the proposed measure workbook.proposed measure workbook – Measure Specifications 3 Measure DevelopersNorthwest Energy Efficiency Alliance (NEEA) with Ecotope, Inc. Technical Subcommittee ReviewNo Research & Evaluation Core Group Review No NotesA provisional measure for DHPs in zonal electrically heated homes is scheduled to expire December 31, 2013.

Staff Highlighted Areas DHP Calibration – Double-check – Step-by-step: from DHP metering study savings results to UES estimate – Revisit DHP performance curves, especially areas requiring judgment Measure Screening – Measure Definitions for screening – Matching the screening measure definitions to the billing study data Revised Costs (minor changes, but worth mentioning) – Cost data filtered for 9.5 HSPF requirement – AC credit now uses Council’s forecast of AC saturation Estimated Baseline Cooling Consumption – Does the RTF agree with the simplified approach being used? Last Measure In Approach – Does it look reasonable? – Note: The sunset for this measure is proposed as “5 years, or 2 months after RTF decision on LMI, or 2 months after RTF decision on the value of wood smoke, whichever comes first.” This allows the RTF to avoid high-centering DHP because of these big issues with unknown timelines. 4

Measure UES Analysis and Results Energy Use and Savings Estimation Method – Heating No supplemental fuel. Supplemental fuel. Unscreened for fuel. SEEM: DHP Performance Curves Simulation Input Parameters (house insulation levels) – Cooling Savings – Comparison to field study findings Costs Benefit/Cost Screening Approach 5

Energy Savings Estimation Method, Parameters and Data Sources* Heating Savings Estimation Method – Homes that pass screen: no supplemental fuel found Modeled estimates (SEEM) DHP performance curves (See “dhp_perf_models” tab) Parameters (used for all screening options) – Insulation levels (See “Rval_fcst” tab) – Homes that fail screen: supplemental fuel found How much supplemental fuel is use Pre- and Post- DHP? – See top of ‘SavingsData&Analysis” tab – Unscreened homes: average of the two screened cases Average savings using supplemental fuel ratios from RBSA Cooling Savings Estimation Method *See “Summary” tab of the proposed measure workbook for details.proposed measure workbook 6

Savings kWh/yr savings for 27 measure applications defined by 3 heating zones, 3 cooling zones, and 3 screen types (See “Presentation” tab.) Step-by-step: from DHP metering study savings results to UES estimate (See next slide) 7

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Costs, NEBs, and B/C Results Costs – DHP capital costs by heating zone – Cooling capital cost offset by cooling zone – See “Presentation” tab Non-energy benefits – Supplemental fuel by heating zone – Cooling by cooling zone – See “Presentation” tab TRC B/C results for 27 measure applications defined by 3 heating zones, 3 cooling zones, and 3 screen types (See “Presentation” tab.) 9

Screening Houses for Supplemental Fuel Use* Background Required information Methods and screening criteria *See “screen_criteria” tab. 10

RTF Staff Recommendations RTF staff recommends the RTF approve the DHP measure as proposed, if the following additions or modifications are made: – Provide additional documentation on the derivation of heat pump performance curves and other data in the UES workbook which cannot be easily accessed in a report; and – Calculate wood offsets for those houses not matching the supplemental fuel screen (see the “Match Rate” table on the screen_criteria tab of the workbook). 11

Proposed Decision “I _________ move that the RTF approve the Ductless Heat Pumps UES measure for Zonal Electrically Heated Single Family Homes as a Proven UES measure with Active status.” 12