1. Applying SEEM Updates, Calibration, and Measure Interaction Decisions to: Manufactured Homes Weatherization UES Measures Regional Technical Forum December 16 th, 2014

2. How We Got Here Existing MH heating energy calibration (Phase 1 & 2) approved by the RTF at the August meeting. Existing MH cooling energy calibration approved by the RTF at the August ‘14 meeting. Savings calculation methodology addresses measure interactions. Approved by the RTF at the August’14 meeting. – Applied to SF weatherization measures. Addressed outstanding questions with the RTF, experts and subcommittee in the last month. 2

3. Measure Overview - 3

4. Staff Highlighted Area Require RTF judgment on applicability of the MH Phase 1 calibration curve to affected measure analysis. Summarizing the issue: Can we use an observational data set to analyze incremental change in home efficiency for MH? – Discussion after presentation of analysis results 4

5. Measure Specification Update R-30 attic insulation only applicable to homes with adequate roof pitch. – HUD certified, no less than 3:12 nominal pitch – This applies to attic insulation R0-R30, R11-R30. Pre-HUD certified homes will not have enough pitch to allow for R- 30 weatherization. The R0-R22 upgrade is applicable to these homes only. R19-R30 measure discontinued. – R19 is the assumed cost effectiveness limit for insulation retrofits. CAT consulted with experts (Bruce Manclark, Brady Peeks and Tom Hewes) to develop these measure specs. 5

6. Measure Identifier Update New measure identifier: Electric resistance heat. – This includes both eFAF and zonal heating systems. – Zonal and eFAF heated homes likely have similar properties. – RBSA had very little evidence of primary zonal heat prevalence in MH. 6

7. Methodology Overview Analysis follows a similar methodology as the SF weatherization measure analysis. RBSA informs measure baseline Define the Full Measure Package (FMP) to conduct RTF measure interaction guidance compliant energy savings analysis. Apply RTF approved Phase 1 and Phase 2 calibration Apply RTF approved savings calculation methodology for measures with significant measure interaction (Option 3) 7

8. Measure Baseline RBSA MH homes simulated in SEEM as is to develop baseline. – Eliminates possible lost accuracy from binning by home properties and averaging. i.e. better representation of average regional UA value. Assumption: MH properties across all CZ are similar. – Each home is simulated in all nine climate zones. – Gives more data (9x) to calculate savings for each climate zone. – Note: same assumption made for SF analysis as well. 8

9. Phase I Adjustment Factors 9

10. Phase II Adjustment Factors 10

11. Measure Interactions - Option 3 11

12. Measure Interactions - Option 3 Full Measure Package (Defining efficiency levels) Attic: R-30 Floors: R-22 Windows: u-0.30 Infiltration: 0.35 ACHn Duct Tightness: PTCS Duct Insulation: Existing Heat Pump HSPF: 9.0 HP CC&S: PTCS 12 Limit on Full Measure Package (Maximum efficiency of starting point) Attic: R-19 Floors: R-11 Windows: Double Pane Metal Frame Infiltration: 0.35 ACHn Duct Tightness: n/a Duct Insulation: n/a Heat Pump HSPF: n/a HP CC&S: n/a A Full Measure Package was defined for MH. Subcommittee agreed with CAT proposal.

13. Energy Savings (kWh/sf): Attic R0-R22* 13 *Note: The current savings are for attic R0-R19 insulation upgrade.

14. Energy Savings (kWh/sf): Attic R0-R30 14

15. Energy Savings (kWh/sf): Attic R11- R30* 15 *Note: The current savings are for attic R19-R30 insulation upgrade.

16. Energy Savings (kWh/sf): Floor R0-R22 16

17. Energy Savings (kWh/sf): Floor R11- R22 17

18. Energy Savings (kWh/cfm50 red’n): Infiltration Reduction 18

19. Window Upgrades: Energy Savings Assumption Note: No home in RBSA with a HP qualified for double pane to U30/ U22 window upgrade. CAT estimated double pane to U30/ U22 upgrade savings in HP homes using ratio of savings between double pane to U30/ U22 and single pane to U30/ U22 upgrades in electric resistance homes. 19

20. Energy Savings (kWh/sf): Double Pane to Class 30 Windows 20

21. Energy Savings (kWh/sf): Double Pane to Class 22 Windows 21

22. Energy Savings (kWh/sf): Single Pane to Class 30 Windows 22

23. Energy Savings (kWh/sf): Single Pane to Class 22 Windows 23

24. Energy Savings (kWh/sf): Class 35 to Class 30 Windows 24

25. Energy Savings (kWh/sf): Class 35 to Class 22 Windows 25

26. Discussion: MH Calibration Phase I 26 Most Base case homes Most efficient homes

27. Discussion: MH Calibration Phase I 27 1 1 2 2 3 3

28. Discussion: MH Calibration Phase 1 (contd.) 28 3 3 2 2 1 1

29. Discussion: MH Calibration Phase I 29 R0-R22 R0-R30

30. Discussion: MH Calibration Phase 1 (contd.) 30 R0-R30 R0-R22

31. Discussion MH Calibration Phase I Can we use an observational data set to analyze incremental change in home efficiency for MH? We applied an observational dataset for SF homes, but we benchmarked calculated savings with some experimental data (from ETO) – Do we have similar data for MH? 31

32. Weatherization Cost Data SIW informed cost date applied using a similar methodology as current workbook. Do not have primary MH cost data. CAT reached out to MH program experts, did not get any cost data/ response. Proposed (and current) workbook uses the following as a proxy: – Insulation: SF cost data – Windows: MF cost data – Infiltration: No change. Note: RTF approved updated cost calculation methodology in SIW is reflected in the current measure workbook. 5 th plan may have pertinent cost data. CAT will research the applicability of this data and if applicable use it instead of SF/ MF data. 32

33. Proposed and Current Measure Costs: Insulation (2006 $/sf) 33

34. Proposed and Current Measure Costs: Window Upgrades (2006 $/sf) 34

35. Proposed and Current Measure Costs: Infiltration Reduction No change in infiltration reduction costs. – $0.68 per CFM50 reduction. (In 2006$) 35

36. Measure Cost Effectiveness: Which measures are cost effective? Electric Resistance Heat: 36

37. Measure Cost Effectiveness: Which measures are cost effective? Heat Pump: 37

38. Decision Slide I, ______, propose that the RTF: Approve the MH Weatherization measures and set a sunset date of 12/2019. OR Give the following direction to staff ___________ 38

39. MH HVAC Measures: Request Sunset Date Extension CAT requires more time to complete the HVAC measure analysis. – Any methodological changes discussed today will be reflected in the HVAC analysis as well. List of HVAC measures being analyzed: – HVAC Upgrade from SEER 13/ 7.7 HSPF heat pump to: SEER 13/ 8.2 HSPF SEER 14/ 8.5 HSPF SEER 14.5/ 9 HSPF Variable capacity heat pump (new) – HVAC Conversion from FAF (with and w/o CAC) SEER 13/ 7.7 HSPF – Commissioning Controls and Sizing – Performance based duct sealing 39

40. Decision Slide I, ______, propose that the RTF: Extend the sunset date of MH HVAC measures to January/ June 2015. 40