1 Oklahoma’s population … the key dimension of change Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa MHSC 2009 Partner Presentation, Summer 2009 File:DaP:/ My DocumentsPowerPoint/MHSC/Immigration/MHSC 2009 Partner Presentation OK Pop Hispanic.ppt

2 The Metropolitan Human Services Commission in Tulsa, partnership includes: City of TulsaCity of Tulsa Oklahoma Department of Human ServicesOklahoma Department of Human Services Tulsa Area United WayTulsa Area United Way Tulsa Community CollegeTulsa Community College Tulsa CountyTulsa County Tulsa Health DepartmentTulsa Health Department Tulsa Public SchoolsTulsa Public Schools Union Public SchoolsUnion Public Schools Ad Hoc members include: Metropolitan Tulsa Chamber and Tulsa Metropolitan Ministry. Mission To serve as a leadership catalyst for coordination of funding, planning and policy decisions affecting human capital development in Tulsa County, and provide guidance to its partners to best enhance that development. Scope of Concern Advancing the community’s investment in human capital includes the scope of efforts addressing the education, safety, health, housing, family support, emergency financial, transportation and employment preparation needs of families and individuals. These efforts increasingly seek to prevent needs through promoting greater self-sufficiency among Tulsa’s people while still intervening to respond to crises and other immediate concerns.

3 Oklahoma’s Population … no signs of significant growth except related to people of Hispanic Origin Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa

4 Definitions… Demographic growth: Increase in the size of population by there being more births than death, and more migrants entering than leaving Natural balance: Fundamental growth when there are more births than deaths Replacement value: Number of children per family just sufficient to keep the total population constant or 2.1 children per woman Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa

5 Worldwide population growth By 2050 there will be 9 billion people on earth 3 billion will have been added just in the last 46 years Fastest growth is in underdeveloped countries Ethnic and religious diversity will be more important than race U.S. population centers will be coastal Taking a closer look… Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa

6 What About Oklahoma? Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa Look Back

7 Population declines in Oklahoma are widespread counties lost 143, counties lost 24,500 Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa 2008 Counties with less than 25,000 people 40 10,000 to 15, ,000 to 15,000 7 under 10,00017under 10,00017

8 Oklahoma Counties Losses & Gains Counties that grew more than the state’s 63% growth between 1950 and 2008 Prepared by the Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa for the Metropolitan Human Services Commission, June, 2009 File:DaP:/ My DocumentsPowerPoint/MHSC/Immigration/MHSC 2009 Partner Presentation OK Pop Hispanic.ppt X X X X X X: loss over 50.1% to 64.8% [7] Y: loss over 39.2% to 47.3% [8] I: loss 27.0%- to 34.1% [7] o: loss 12.0% to 17.1% [5] o: loss 1.1% to 8.7% [8] X X Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y I I I I I I O O O o O I o o o o o o o O

9 62 of Oklahoma’s 77 counties either lost population or grew at a rate less than the state between 1950 and counties lost population, only 5 counties had over 25,000 people in Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa Source: U.S. CENSUS BUREAU

10 Oklahoma’s Population Shifts OK 59% US Total OK Total Metro Cos. - - Cleveland - - Rogers - - Canadian - - Wagoner NE Oklahoma - Delaware - Cherokee Metro Cos. - Tulsa - Oklahoma Sequoyah Co. (NE) Metro Cos. - McClain - - Comanche - - Mayes (NE) & - - Marshall (SCrtl) Metro Cos. - Logan - Creek Only 15 counties grew at or above the state’s growth of 59% All but 6 counties were over 50,000 population in 2005 Source: U.S. CENSUS BUREAU Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa

11 Oklahoma is growing at a slower pace than the nation Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa Average Annual Rate of Growth 2000 and 2008: U.S. 1.0% State of Oklahoma0.7% Tulsa MSA 0.8% Oklahoma City MSA1.2%

12 Any growth mainly occurred in Metro Areas : Oklahoma’s population grew 5.6%Oklahoma’s population grew 5.6% Non-urban areas grew 1.8%Non-urban areas grew 1.8% OKC/Tulsa MSAs together grew 8.6%OKC/Tulsa MSAs together grew 8.6% 87% of Oklahoma’s growth was in the Oklahoma City and Tulsa MSAs87% of Oklahoma’s growth was in the Oklahoma City and Tulsa MSAs Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa

13 Hispanic Impact Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa

14 Immigrant Population Impact has been Significant Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa : 10 counties would have lost population except for Hispanic population increases

15 Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa Average Annual Rate of Growth : Without the Hispanic population Oklahoma’s rate of growth would be reduced from 0.7% to 0.3% Oklahoma City MSA 1.2% to 0.8% 1.2% to 0.8% Tulsa MSA 0.8% to 0.4% Oklahoma is essentially not growing OklahomaTotal Oklahoma City MSA 1.2% 0.7% 0.8% Tulsa MSA 1.5% 0.3% 0.8% 0.4% United States 1.0% to 0.5%

16 Hispanic Population Impacts Urban and Rural Areas Population: Oklahoma County grew 7.0%, average annual growth 0.8% Tulsa County grew 5.1%, average annual growth of 0.6%Tulsa County grew 5.1%, average annual growth of 0.6% What percent of Oklahoma County’s and Tulsa County’s growth was comprised of people with Hispanic origin? Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa OklahomaCounty TulsaCounty 87% 71% 98% Non-urbanareas What about non-urban areas?

17 Growth related to natural balance Oklahoma’s natural growth rate has been variable but low 30 counties in Oklahoma had less than 200 births per year Of these, 15 counties had less than 100 births per year Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa

18 In Oklahoma County and Tulsa County, as well as Oklahoma, the natural population growth is strongly impacted by fertility rates of Hispanic women Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa

19 Growth related to natural balance Overall, Oklahoma’s fertility rates have increased slightly, from 62.6 to 67.7 While the fertility rates for Hispanics are almost double, and increased from to The replacement rate is 2.1 and has reached 4.0 for women of Hispanic Origin Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa

20 Oklahoma population growth related to immigration : Non-Hispanic grew 92,390 or 2.8% 0.3% annually White non-Hispanic grew by 4.6%, or about 0.6% per year Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa

21 Oklahoma population growth related to immigration The most critical contributor to population growth in small states is the increase in Hispanic population, including immigrants. Oklahoma’s Hispanic population grew by over 99,300 [ ] or 55%, an average annual growth of 5.7% In two years [ ] Hispanics alone grew 13% or by over 31,000 people Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa : Asians and Hawaiian/Pacific Islander Alone increased in the double digits, 30% & 45% respectively, but the numbers were much smaller

22 Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa Complete this Urban public school enrollment Changes: Oklahoma Co. 7.2% Tulsa Co. 6.8% Non-Hispanic White population decreased Oklahoma Co. - 8,120 Tulsa Co. - 5,030 Black, Native American, Asian & Pacific Inlanders, and Hispanic children all increased.

23 Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa Complete this Elementary public school enrollment growth was primarily due to increases in Hispanic students % Hispanic State-wide 12% Oklahoma County 23% Tulsa County 15% OKC Public Schools 35% Tulsa Public Schools 23%

24 Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa Complete this Public school enrollment growth was primarily due to increases in Hispanic students Hispanic enrollment increased: Oklahoma Co % Tulsa Co % Tulsa Co % Combined, these two counties had an increase of over 21,000 Hispanic children

25 Oklahoma County Schools October 1 Enrollment Tulsa County Schools October 1 Enrollment Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa # Change % Change White NH 61,36253,243-8, % Black24,71627,0382,3229.4% Native American 5,6397,6482, % Hispanic10,31723,09112, % # Change % Change White NH 65,848 60,817 60,817-5, % Black17,166 18,743 18,7431,5779.2% Native American 10,439 14,804 14,8044, % Hispanic6,088 14,343 14,3438, %

26 Tulsa County Public School Enrollment Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa

27 Look Forward Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa

28 Oklahoma’s Population Age Structure Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa

29 Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa Age grouping is an important factor to consider In relationship to the national percentage change [ ] Oklahoma was: Above - Children 0-9 Below - youth Above ages Below ages Above ages Same as US Above nation age 80 and over

30 Oklahoma’s total population has grown at just under 0.6% per year People 65 and over increased 5.1% between 2000 and 2007 Total & Over85 & Over Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa

31 Between 2007 and 2030, Oklahoma’s total population is projected to grow at a slow pace of +10.2% The population of people 65 and over is projected to increase 60% The working age population is projected to decline Total & Over85 & Over Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa

32 Age Structure: Total Population Percent Change US Compared to Oklahoma by Single Year of Age The age group that is most productive (34-47) is projected to decline Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa

33 What does the future hold? US Population Projections : % of the increase will be due to immigrants arriving from 2005 to 2050 and their US-born descendants.82% of the increase will be due to immigrants arriving from 2005 to 2050 and their US-born descendants. Nearly one in five Americans (19%) will be an immigrant in 2050, compared with one in eight (12%) in 2005.Nearly one in five Americans (19%) will be an immigrant in 2050, compared with one in eight (12%) in By 2025, the immigrant, or foreign-born, share of the population will surpass the peak during the last great wave of immigration a century ago.By 2025, the immigrant, or foreign-born, share of the population will surpass the peak during the last great wave of immigration a century ago. The Latino population, already the nation’s largest minority group, will triple in size and will account for most of the nation’s population growth from 2005 through 2050.The Latino population, already the nation’s largest minority group, will triple in size and will account for most of the nation’s population growth from 2005 through Hispanics will make up 29% of the US population in 2050, compared with 14% in 2005.Hispanics will make up 29% of the US population in 2050, compared with 14% in Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa

34 Findings Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa

35 Findings: Oklahoma’s growth will continue to be low compared to the nationOklahoma’s growth will continue to be low compared to the nation There will continue to be population shiftsThere will continue to be population shifts From rural to urbanFrom rural to urban MigrationMigration –From out-of-state –To out-of-state Metropolitan areas will continue to grow close to the national rate of growth, and out pace both Oklahoma and rural areasMetropolitan areas will continue to grow close to the national rate of growth, and out pace both Oklahoma and rural areas Children and seniors continue to be the largest growth populationsChildren and seniors continue to be the largest growth populations Population in the working age group will continue to decline over time, especially in rural areasPopulation in the working age group will continue to decline over time, especially in rural areas Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa

36 Findings: Replacement population Oklahoma will have a hard time just replacing its’ populationOklahoma will have a hard time just replacing its’ population Oklahoma’s population is aging and there is a minimum ratio of persons aged 18 to 65 to those that between and aged 65 years and older that is necessary to maintain a viable economy and necessary services.Oklahoma’s population is aging and there is a minimum ratio of persons aged 18 to 65 to those that between and aged 65 years and older that is necessary to maintain a viable economy and necessary services. –Additional analysis needs to be completed to determine the necessary mix of age groups. Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa

37 Findings: Hispanic population Hispanic populations will continue to play an important role in population growth in urban and rural areas.Hispanic populations will continue to play an important role in population growth in urban and rural areas. Births to women of Hispanic Origin will continue to grow, as a share of total births as well as in total numberBirths to women of Hispanic Origin will continue to grow, as a share of total births as well as in total number Hispanic children will continue to increase their share in the public school populationHispanic children will continue to increase their share in the public school population Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa

38 There are several approaches to address Oklahoma’s dilemma A good mix of age groups in the population is key to future labor force and age dependency issues. Here are several approaches: A.I ncrease the number of children born in Oklahoma B.R educe the number of youth and young adults that leave Oklahoma C.I ncrease people in the workforce age 65+ D.I ncrease immigration to Oklahoma From other states/ territories From outside the U.S. E.I nvestigate the prospect of changing Oklahoma laws that prohibit people convicted of non-violent criminal offenses from being employed in certain jobs Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa

39 Reasons why immigration issues need to be addressed WorkforceWorkforce EducationEducation TrainingTraining Child CareChild Care SafetySafety –Domestic Violence –Keeping crime low Health careHealth care –Immunizations –Pre-natal and Post-natal care –Emergency Care –Birthing Support servicesSupport services Prepared by the Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa for the Metropolitan Human Services Commission, June, 2009 File:DaP:/ My DocumentsPowerPoint/MHSC/Immigration/MHSC 2009 Partner Presentation OK Pop Hispanic.ppt

40 Agenda Provide public education on immigration and Oklahoma’s needs – Offer brief presentations describing the reasons for sustaining and developing the immigrant population:Offer brief presentations describing the reasons for sustaining and developing the immigrant population: –Satisfying current and future workforce needs –Addressing Oklahoma’s future growth and vitality –Increasing state resources for funding essential services Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa

41 Prepared by the Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa We are available to provide a great amount of additional data and information on this topic and many others. The Community Service Council's Census Information Center (CIC) is provided in cooperation with the U.S. Census Bureau to make census data more accessible for use in planning to meet the needs of people in Oklahoma. The Community Service Council's Census Information Center (CIC) is provided in cooperation with the U.S. Census Bureau to make census data more accessible for use in planning to meet the needs of people in Oklahoma. Please visit our website for a variety of presentations and sets of data for your use in planning and development of the State of Oklahoma. Go to Click on “Data” The Council is supported in data and information efforts by the Metropolitan Human Services Commission in Tulsa __________________________________________________________ Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa (a United Way agency) 16 East 16 th Street, Suite 202. Tulsa, OK Contact: Dan Arthrell, Jan Figart, Prepared by the Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa for the Metropolitan Human Services Commission, June, 2009 File:DaP:/ My DocumentsPowerPoint/MHSC/Immigration/MHSC 2009 Partner Presentation OK Pop Hispanic.ppt