1. PROMOTING EXCELLENCE IN GOVERNMENT Demographics, Projections, and College Readiness Matt Hauer Applied Demography Program

2. Themes to Highlight 1) Rapid Population Growth 2) Changing Racial and Ethnic Composition 3) Aging

3. Population of Georgia, 1900–2010 Millions Source: US Census Bureau

4. Components of Change, 1940–2009 1,020,304 Source: US Census Bureau

5. Fastest Growing Counties Of the fastest growing counties in the United States, Georgia has –3 of the top 20, –6 of the top 50, and –9 of the top 100 Source: US Census Bureau

6. Fastest Growing Counties: 9 of 100

7. Change in Population, 2000–2010 Source: US Census Bureau

8. Change in Population, 2010–2013 Source: US Census Bureau 82 Counties have lost population since 2010. 35 Counties have negative natural increase. 93 Counties have negative net migration. 6 counties account for 2/3 of all Pop growth since 2010.

10. 1) Rapid Population Growth/Decline

11. Rapid Growth in Urban Areas… Of the 10 most populous Metropolitan Areas in the US…

12. … Declining or Slow Growth in Rural Areas

13. Georgia’s Race Distribution, 1980

14. Georgia’s Race Distribution, 2010 19802010

15. Georgia’s Race Distribution, 1980–2030 1980 2010 2030 Source: US Census Bureau, and internal population projections

16. Race and Ethnic Population Change, 1980–2010 Source: US Census Bureau

17. Gwinnett County has the largest New Immigrant Asian population. Percent AsianPercent Change County1990200020101990–2010 Henry0.6%1.8%3.0%1,753% Gwinnett2.9%7.2%10.7%739% Fulton1.3%3.0%5.6%519% Cobb1.8%3.1%4.5%291% Henry County is one of the four fastest growing counties in the U.S. Source: US Census Bureau

18. Growth, 2000–2010 Number Change White285,259 Black579,335 Other218,144 Hispanic418,462 Source: US Census Bureau

19. Growth, 2000–2010 Number Change Percent Change White285,2595.6% Black579,33524.8% Other218,14474.9% Hispanic418,46296.1% Source: US Census Bureau

20. Growth, 2000–2010 Number Change Percent Change Annual Growth Rate White285,2595.6%0.6% Black579,33524.8%2.5% Other218,14474.9%6.4% Hispanic418,46296.1%7.8% Source: US Census Bureau

21. Growth, 2000–2010 Number Change Percent Change Annual Growth Rate Doubling Time White285,2595.6%0.6%116.67 years Black579,33524.8%2.5%28 years Other218,14474.9%6.4%10.94 years Hispanic418,46296.1%7.8%8.97 years Source: US Census Bureau

22. Change in White Population, 2000–2010 Source: US Census Bureau

23. Change in Black Population, 2000–2010 Source: US Census Bureau

24. Change in Hispanic Population, 2000–2010 Source: US Census Bureau

25. Where Do Babies Come From? Demographic Perspective Number of Women of Childbearing Age

26. Total Fertility Rate, 2000 Total Fertility Rate Statewide2.13 Source: GA Vital Statistics

27. Total Fertility Rate, 2000 Total Fertility Rate Statewide2.13 White1.96 Black2.22 Other1.44 Hispanic3.53 Source: GA Vital Statistics

28. Total Fertility Rates 2000–2009 Source: Internal Estimates

29. The “Browning” of the South… A Declining Share of White Population A Steady/Increasing Black Population A Rapidly Increasing Latino Population

30. Educational Outcomes

31. Source: Pew Hispanic Center

32. Population Change 1990–2010 % Increase 1990-2010 Under 2551% 25–4425% 45–64111% 65–8053% 80+76% Source: US Census Bureau

33. Mock Projection 1990 5–242.0 25–442.2 45–641.2 65–800.6

34. Mock Projection 19902010 5–242.02.7 25–442.22.7 45–641.22.4 65–800.60.9

35. Mock Projection 199020102030 5–242.02.7 25–442.22.7 45–641.22.42.7 65–800.60.92.4

36. Baby Boom

40. Population over age 65 is expected to more than double over the next 50 years.

41. 20-County Area around Albany Georgia

42. Aging 65+ Most Rapidly Growing age group –Only part of the Picture…

43. Conclusions Most rapid growth among youngest and oldest individuals The middle-aged population growing the least

44. Conclusions Georgia is no longer a black and white state.

45. Recap 1) Rapid Population Growth “Rich get richer, Poor get poorer” 2) Changing Racial and Ethnic Composition “Browning of America” 3) Aging “The workforce is aging”

46. Contact Info Matt Hauer (706) 542-9369 hauer@uga.edu www.vinsoninstitute.org

47. Change in Population 18-64 Working Age Adult growth will occur. Growth will occur in Non-White populations. Millions% Total Growth8.34.3% White-14.5-11.7% Black2.29.1% Hispanic14.745.4% Asian3.735.3% Source: US Census Bureau, Vintage 2012 Projections

48. Source: IPEDS

50. Trend lines