1. National Association of Governmental Labor Officials
Labor Force Outlook:
Mitra Toossi
Employment Projections Program
National Association of Governmental Labor Officials
July 26, 2016

2. Projections Uses
Career counselors and students making career choice decisions
Jobseekers looking to switch occupations
Education and training officials making decisions on policy, funding, and program offerings
Researchers interested in how the economy is changing

3. Employment Projections Process
Industry Final Demand
Sales to consumers, businesses, government, and foreigners
Industry Output
Use and Make Relationships, Total Requirements Tables
Industry Employment
Labor productivity, average weekly hours, wage & salary employment
Occupational Employment
Job openings due to growth & replacement needs
Aggregate Economy
GDP, total employment, and major demand categories
Labor Force
Total and by age, sex, race and ethnicity
The BLS projections are developed in a series of six steps-
Size and demographic composition of the labor force
The labor force is the number of people working or looking for jobs.
The growth of the aggregate economy
A macroeconomic model is used to project Gross Domestic Product, consumer spending, investment, government spending, imports and exports, and other major economic measures.
Final demand by industry sector
The projected final demand categories are disaggregated to project the final demand, in sales to consumers, for each industry sector.
Industry output
Input-Output tables from the Bureau of Economic Analysis are used to determine the relationships between industries and project the output that will be needed from each industry to satisfy the final demand from the previous step, including outputs which are used by other industry sectors as an input towards satisfying their final demand.
Industry employment
The BLS models industry employment as a function of industry output, wages, prices, and time. Together with the industry output projections, employment results provide a measure of labor productivity. BLS analysts examine the implied growth rates in projected productivity for consistency with historical trends. At the same time, analysts attempt to identify industries that may deviate from past behavior because of changes in technology or other factors. Where appropriate, changes to the employment estimates are made by modifying either the employment demand itself or the results from earlier steps in the projections process.
Occupational employment
Occupational demand is projected by applying each industry’s unique staffing pattern to industry employment projections. BLS analysts consider changes in technology, business practices, and other factors to determine how staffing patterns may change over the projection decade. Occupational replacement needs are also projected to help determine the total number of job openings expected to be available in each occupation. 3 3

4. The Labor Force – What is Projected?
We project the labor force for the following age, sex, race and ethnic categories:
By 17 age groups
By 2 sex groups
By 1 ethnic and 4 race groups
A total of more than 136 age, sex, race and ethnic categories
LFPRs are calculated for the overall, as well as by various age, sex, race and ethnic groups.
Employment Outlook:

5. Race Categories from 2000 Census:
White (only  no other race)
Black (only  no other race)
Asian (only  no other race)
All other groups:
Native Hawaiian and Pacific Islanders
American Indian & Alaska Natives
All persons reporting more than one Race
Hispanic (of any race)
Non-Hispanic (of any race)
White non-Hispanic
Employment Outlook:

6. The Labor Force Based on Two Factors:
Labor Force = Population *LFPR
Population data from Census Bureau by age, sex, race and ethnicity.
Labor force participation rate data from Current Population Survey by age, sex, race and ethnicity.
Employment Outlook:

7. Number of Live Births, 1920-2014 Millions of births Baby boomers
Employment Outlook:

8. Immigration to U.S.
Millions of immigrants
Employment Outlook:

9. Demographic Trends in 2014-24
Slower growth of the U.S. population
Declining birth rates
Lower levels of immigration
Population aging

10. What is up with Labor Force Participation Rates?
Overall LFPR has been declining since 2000.
LFPR has been declining for men from 1940s.
LFPR of women peaked in 1999 & declining.
LFPR has been declining for youth since 1990.
LFPR declining for prime age groups.(1996).
LFPR increasing for 50+ age groups. (1996).
However, LFPR for 55+ is half of prime age group.
Declining participation rates for different race and ethnic groups, even Hispanics and Asians with highest participation rates.

11. Labor Force Participation Rate, 1948-2016
Percent
Total, 16 years and over
NOTE: Shaded areas represent recessions as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). Beginning in 1994, data reflect the introduction of a major redesign of the Current Population Survey. Additional adjustments to population controls were incorporated into the data in January of various years. These changes can affect comparability with data for prior periods.
Labor force participation rates are seasonally adjusted.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey.
Employment Outlook:

12. Labor Force Participation Rates by Age and Sex, 1948-2016
Percent
Adult men
Adult women
Teenagers
Labor force participation rates are seasonally adjusted.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey
Employment Outlook:

13. Labor Force Participation Rates for 25- to 54-Year-Olds by Sex, 1948-2016
Percent
Men, 25 to 54 years
Women, 25 to 54 years
Labor force participation rates are seasonally adjusted.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population.
Employment Outlook:

14. Labor Force Participation Rates by Sex for 55-Years-and-Older Age Group, 1948-2016
Percent
Men, 55 years and over
Women, 55 years and over
Labor force participation rates are seasonally adjusted.
NOTE: Shaded areas represent recessions as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). Beginning in 1994, data reflect the introduction of a major redesign of the Current Population Survey. Additional adjustments to population controls were incorporated into the data in January of various years. These changes can affect comparability with data for prior periods. .
Employment Outlook:

15. Labor Force Participation Rates by Race and Ethnic Origin, 1973-2016
Percent
White
Hispanic
Asian
Black or African American
SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey,
Employment Outlook:

16. Labor Force Participation Rates for 25 and over Age Group by Educational Attainment, 1992-2016
Percent
Bachelor’s degree and higher
Some college or associate degree
High school graduates, no college
Less than a high school diploma
Labor force participation rates are seasonally adjusted.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey.
Employment Outlook:

17. Population and Labor force, 1950
Baby boomers
Men
Women
85+
80-84
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-59
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4 12 10 8 6 4 2
Millions
Age
Labor force
Population
Employment Outlook:

18. Population and Labor force, 2000
Baby boomers 12 10 8 6 4 2
Millions
Age
Labor force
Population
85+
80-84
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-59
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
Men
Women
Employment Outlook:

19. Population and Labor force, Projected 2050
Baby boomers
Men
Women
85+
80-84
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-59
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
Millions
Age
Labor force
Population 12 10 8 6 4 2
Employment Outlook:

20. Population and Labor Force Grows
Millions of persons
2004
2014
Projected 2024
2004
2014
Projected 2024

21. Population Growth Rate Slows
Annual rates of change

22. Labor Force Participation Continues to Decline
Percent
Men
Total
Women

23. The Labor Force is Aging
Percent distribution

24. Participation Declines for Youth and Increases for Older Adults

25. The Older Labor Force Age Groups Increases the Most
Thousands of persons

26. The Older Labor Force Age Groups Grows the Fastest
Percent change projected
Total labor force growth= 5.0%

27. The Labor Force Share of Whites Declines

28. The Labor Force Share of Non-Hispanics Declines

29. The Labor Force Grows More Diverse
Percent change projected

30. Evaluation of Labor Force Projections
BLS labor force projections are comparable to CBO and SSA projections
Labor force evaluations done in 1980, 1985,1990,1995,2000
Evaluation of BLS labor force & employment projections published in 2010
Evaluation of the labor force, macro economy and industry employment projections published in 2015
Employment Outlook:

31. Demographic Changes Projected slowdown in the population
Projected slowdown of labor force growth
Retirement of the baby boom generation
Projected decline in the participation rates
Increasing diversity of the U.S. workforce
Immigration has been increasing since 1950s, however, growth is slowing down
Employment Outlook:

32. Meeting The Challenge Increases in LFPR of older workers
Increases in LFPR of women
Continued increases in labor productivity
Upgrading the skills of the U.S. workforce through education and training
Immigration
Employment Outlook:

33. Mitra Toossi Employment Projections program www. bls. gov/emp Toossi
Mitra Toossi Employment Projections program