1. Root Causes of Social Vulnerability: Demographic and Economic Trends Session 6

2. Session Objectives
Understand major demographic trends in the U.S. and globally.
Understand broad migration trends in the U.S. and globally.
Explore poverty in the U.S. and globally.
Appreciate how population trends can contribute to vulnerability and require special consideration for emergency management and disaster response. Later sessions will explore the relationship between these trends and vulnerability in more detail.
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3. Why disaster losses go up…
Population growth
Land pressure
Urbanization
Inequality
Climate change
Political change
Economic growth
Technological innovation
Social expectations
Global interdependence
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4. Population & Economic Trends
General trends contributing to vulnerability
Population trends
Population increase
Children & Elderly
Diversity
Migration
Economic disparity
Poverty
Access to resources
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5. Population Growth Birth Rates: annual # of live births/1000 people
Fertility Rates: annual average number of children a woman has during reproductive years
Death Rates = annual mortality rate/1000
Natural increase = Birth Rate – Death Rate
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6. Implications of Population Growth
Carrying Capacity
Maximum # of individuals of any species that can be supported by a particular ecosystem on a long-term basis
Different views:
Zero Population Growth: Ehrlich (1970)
Bring ‘em on!: Boserup (1965)
Creating stress on resource and land use
Living in more marginal environments, particularly with regard to hazards
Changing demographic structure, altering vulnerabilities
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7. Population in billions2 4 6 8 10
1750
1800
1850
1900
1950
2000
2050
2100
2150
6.1 billion
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Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects, The 1998 Revision; and estimates by the Population Reference Bureau.         

8. Population by Age and Sex: 1990, and 2030
Developing Countries
Developed Countries
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9. Natural Increase or Decrease for States, 2000–2001
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10. U.S. Child and Old-Age Dependency Ratios, 1900–2000, Projections to 2050
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11. Migration Implications for Vulnerability
Changing nature of communities
Social and family networks change
Shifting resources
As people move to new places
Often do not have understanding of hazards in new location
Past experiences do not necessarily correspond to changed geography
Limited knowledge about resources & hazards
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12. Factors Influencing Why People Migrate
Push factors
Pull factors
Ease of movement
Alternative destinations
Perception/Information
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13. Migration Trends Numbers Refugee populations Urbanization
About 175 million people, or 3% of world’s population
60% reside in developed nations
Refugee populations
15.9 million people in 2000
Most are in developing nations (12.9 million)
Urbanization
In U.S., toward the coast
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14. Countries with the Largest International Migrant Stock, 2000
Source: United Nations, Population Division, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, International Migration,         
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15. Urbanizing Population
Percent of Population Living in Urban Areas,
1950, 1975, 2000, & 2025
Share of World Population Growth in Urban & Rural Areas,
Source: United Nations, World Urbanization Prospects: The 1999 Revision (2000).
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16. Urbanizing Population
Percent Urban
5-28
29-44
45-61
62-79
80-100
Source: derived from 2002 World Population Data Sheet of the Population Reference Bureau
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17. Megacities
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18. Reasons for Moving in the U.S., 1999-2000
Family (26.3%)
Change in marital status
To establish own household
Other *
Work (16.2%)
New job/job transfer *
To look for work/lost job
Closer to work/easier commute
Retired
Housing (51.6%)
Wanted to own home/not rent
New/better house/apartment *
Better neighborhood/less crime
Cheaper housing
Other (6.0%)
attend/leave college *
Change of climate
Health reasons
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Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey, March 1998, March 1999, and March 2000.

19. Net International and Interstate Migration by State, 2000–2001
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20. Regional Origins of Immigrants to the U.S.
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21. Poverty and Vulnerability
Direct link between poverty and vulnerability
Affects access to monetary resources in face of disaster
Impacts ability to mitigate against hazards
Must prioritize everyday needs
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22. Income Disparities
Almost one-quarter of the world's 5.7 billion people ''continues to live in a state of severe poverty.'' United Nations
More than 1.3 billion people currently live below the poverty line, surviving on a dollar a day
41 countries designated as "heavily indebted poor countries" by the World Bank, 39 fall into the category of high-fertility nations, where women, on average, bear four or more children. (August 2002)
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23. UNDP Poverty Report 2000 Two ways of measuring poverty
The $1 per day is an income measure of poverty: it measures the percentage of people who live on less than $1 per day
The Human Poverty Index (HPI)
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24. UNDP Poverty Report 2000
The HPI measures deprivation in basic human development. It takes into account:
% of people expected to die before age 40
% of adults who are illiterate
% of population without access to health services
% of population without access to safe water
% of children under five who are underweight
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25. Population living on less than US$1 Per Day (percent)
UNDP Poverty Report 2000
Population living on less than US$1 Per Day (percent)
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26. Human Poverty Index for Developing Countries
UNDP Poverty Report 2000
Human Poverty Index for Developing Countries
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27. Life Expectancy at Birth: 2000
Under 50 years
50 to 64 years
65 to 74 years
75 years and over
Source: derived from 2002 World Population Data Sheet of the Population Reference Bureau
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28. Economic Disparity in U.S.
Median Income for Households
Average Income per Household
By Race & Hispanic Origin
Of Householder: 1999
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29. Economic Disparity in U.S.
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30. Percent of U.S. Children in Poverty, 2000
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. Data from the March 2000 Current Population Study, available at and
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31. U.S. Home Ownership, 2000 72 percent of non-Hispanic whites
53 percent of Asians
46 percent of African Americans and of Hispanics.
Gap narrowed in recent decades, due in part to an increasing number of mortgage loans to low-income, minority households
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32. Population, Economics and Vulnerability
Only a subset of indicators shown here
Many will be explored in greater detail in following sessions
BOTTOM LINE…
hazards impact groups of people differentially based on demographics and wealth
How do we correct this?
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