April 22, 2015 University of Missouri Extension

Pat Guinan April 22, 2015

2015 was warmest first quarter (Jan-Mar) for globe since records began in 1880…

Missouri Climate Center/NOAA

Mild April in the Great Plains & Midwest… +3-4° +6-7° +5-6° +4-5° Average Temperature Departure from Mean (°F) April 1-20, MRCC

50-55°F 55-60°F 60-65°F

Accumulated Precipitation (in.) Apr 1 – Apr 21, 2015 Accumulated Precipitation (in.) Departure from Mean Apr 1 – Apr 21, 2015 Generally wet April with pockets of dryness… MRCC

7-day precipitation forecast beginning 7:00 p.m., Tue, Apr. 21 thru 7:00 p.m., Tue, Apr 28,

6-10 Day Precipitation Outlook Apr 27- May 1, Day Temperature Outlook Apr 27- May 1,

David Reinbott April 22, 2015

Issues Impacting Prices on April 22 Strong U.S. dollar Planting progress – 9% vs. 13% Acres planted – change of 1- 2 million Large world stocks Growing S.A. crop Avian bird flu Grain sorghum acres up

Weekly U.S. Dollar Futures

Bu./ac.

May 2015 Corn Futures

December 2015 Corn Futures

Ron Plain April 22, 2015 Cattle Outlook (title)

Source: USDA/ERS 10 monthly records in 2014

Source: USDA/ERS

2014: 33.9 million head, up 0.5% First increase since 1995 Source: USDA/NASS U. S. Calf Crop,

U.S. Beef Imports & Exports as % of U.S. Production, monthly Source: USDA/ERS

Dollar Exchange Rate USDA expects 2015 meat exports to be down 6% and meat imports to be up 4% compared to 2014.

Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS Livestock Marketing Information Center 2014 cattle slaughter was down 6.9% 2015 year-to-date is down 6.0%

Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS Livestock Marketing Information Center 2014 steer dressed weight was up 1.0% 2015 year-to-date weight is up 1.6%

Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS Livestock Marketing Information Center 2014 cow slaughter was down 13.8% 2015 year-to-date is down 5.9%

Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS Livestock Marketing Information Center 2014 heifer slaughter was down 7.9% 2015 year-to-date is down 5.9%

Mar 1 cattle on feed: down 0.5% Cattle on Feed

Data Source: USDA-AMS Livestock Marketing Information Center

Source: LMIC Cost of Gain is roughly $73/cwt.

U.S. Commercial Beef Production Million Pounds * forecast Qtr 1 6,172 5,868 5,660 Qtr 2 6,516 6,183 6,240* Qtr 3 6,609 6,178 6,210* Qtr 4 6,423 6,023 6,100* Year 25,72024,25224,210* % Change % - 3.5% % +0.9% % +0.5% % +1.3% % - 0.2%

5 Area Slaughter Steer Prices Choice Steers Per Live Hundredweight Qtr 1 $125.29$125.52$ $ Qtr 2 $121.91$124.95$ $ * Qtr 3 $119.69$122.30$ $ * Qtr 4 $125.54$130.77$ $ * Year $122.86$125.89$ $ * *forecast

Nebraska Slaughter Steer Price, Monthly Average

OKC # Feeder Steer Price, Monthly Average

Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC

David Reinbott April 22, 2015

Issues Impacting Prices on April 22 Record acres and production U.S. acres – plus 1 – 2 million acres U.S. exports Large S.A. crop Large world stocks

Bu./acre

2015 May Soybeans

2015 November Soybeans

Ron Plain April 22, 2015

U.S. Retail Pork Prices, Source: USDA/ERS

Cost of Slaughter Hog Production, Source: Iowa State University & University of Missouri

Source: USDA/ERS

U.S. Pork Imports & Exports as % of U.S. Pork Production, Source: USDA/ERS

New PEDV & PDCoV Cases by Week NAHLN Reports Source: AASV & NAHLN

U.S. Pigs per Litter by Month Pigs per litter: Dec-Feb 14: - 5.5% Dec-Feb 15: +6.7% Source: USDA/NASS

record 2014 average was lbs, up 8.5 lbs from 2013 Source: USDA/AMS

Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS Livestock Marketing Information Center 2014 hog slt - 4.6% 2015 YTD slt + 6.8%

March Hog Inventory Source: USDA - NASS

Sows Farrowed by Quarter - U.S. Source: USDA/NASS

Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center

Commercial Pork Production Forecast Million Pounds * Forecast Qtr 1 5,777 5,785 6,155 Qtr 2 5,519 5,504 5,720* Qtr 3 5,622 5,423 5,915* Qtr 4 6,274 6,132 6,450* Year 23,18722,84424,240* Change % + 6.4% - 0.3% + 3.9% - 3.6% + 9.1% - 2.3% + 5.2% - 1.5% + 6.1% Source: USDA - OCE

Iowa-Minn. Hog Price Forecast Negotiated Base Price Per Carcass Hundredweight Qtr 1$84.78$80.17$ $64.10 Qtr 2$85.45$89.33$ $68-72* Qtr 3$83.15$95.37$ $68-72* Qtr 4$79.93$82.36$ $62-66* Year$83.36$86.87$ $66-70* * Forecast price – prior day purchased

Net Slaughter Hog Price, Monthly Average

Iowa Farrow to Finish Profits, Forecast Source: Ron Plain, University of Missouri

David Reinbott April 22, 2015

Issues Impacting Prices on April 22 Plains drought/rain World ending stocks going up

2015 July Wheat

Joe Horner April 22, 2015

Dairy Outlook in a Nutshell Supply Neutral –US cow numbers – rising slowly 1.1% (Feb 2015 year over year) –US milk per cow – rising 0.6% (Feb 2015 year over year) –US milk production – rising 1.7% (Feb 2015 year over year) –California drought constraining 1/5 milk (-3.8% Feb 2015 year over year ) Demand Neutral –Domestic – Spring flush moving supply to storage –Exports – Strong dollar hurting exports vs. NZ & EU –Global – Chinese and Middle Eastern weakness Outlook Better than feared –Margins pressured, but milk price hasn’t collapsed –Cull cow prices vs. milk prices dictate length of low prices

Stocks – Rising Bullish Neutral Bearish

Dairy Price Outlook 1 st Half nd Half 2015 USDA – All Milk Price February 17, 2015 $ $17.00$ $19.30$ $17.65 MO Farm Forecast $18.25$19.00$18.50