1. Ag Outlook 1st Farm Credit Services Fall Outlook Meeting
Peoria, Illinois
Oct. 23, 2014
Chad Hart
Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist 1 1

2. U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Area Planted
(mil. acres)
88.2
91.9
97.2
95.4
90.9
Yield
(bu./acre)
152.8
147.2
123.4
158.8
174.2
Production
(mil. bu.)
12,447
12,360
10,780
13,925
14,475
Beg. Stocks
1,708
1,128
989
821
1,236
Imports 28 29
162 36 25
Total Supply
14,182
13,517
11,932
14,782
15,736
Feed & Residual
4,795
4,557
4,329
5,125
5,375
Ethanol
5,019
5,000
4,648
5,130
Food, Seed, & Other
1,407
1,428
1,403
1,374
1,405
Exports
1,834
1,543
731
1,917
1,750
Total Use
13,055
12,528
11,111
13,546
13,655
Ending Stocks
2,081
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
5.18
6.22
6.89
4.46
3.40
Source: USDA-WAOB, with adjustments for stocks 2 2

3. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Area Planted
(mil. acres)
77.4
75.0
77.2
76.8
84.2
Yield
(bu./acre)
43.5
41.9
39.8
44.0
47.1
Production
(mil. bu.)
3,329
3,094
3,034
3,358
3,927
Beg. Stocks
151
215
169
141 92
Imports 14 16 36 72 15
Total Supply
3,495
3,325
3,239
3,570
4,034
Crush
1,648
1,703
1,689
1,734
1,770
Seed & Residual
130 88 90 98
113
Exports
1,501
1,365
1,320
1,647
1,700
Total Use
3,280
3,155
3,099
3,478
3,583
Ending Stocks
450
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
11.30
12.50
14.40
13.00
10.00
Source: USDA-WAOB, with adjustments for stocks 3 3

4. Projected Corn Yields Top: 2014 Yield Bottom: Change from last month
Units: Bu/acre
Source: USDA-NASS

5. Projected Soybean Yields
Top: 2014 Yield
Bottom: Change from last month
Units: Bu/acre
Source: USDA-NASS

6. World Corn Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 6 6

7. World Soybean Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 7 7

8. Corn Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

9. Corn Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

10. Soybean Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

11. Soy Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

12. Corn Grind for Ethanol

13. Current Corn Futures
3.80
3.47
Source: CME Group, 10/22/2014

14. Current Soybean Futures
9.51
9.41
Source: CME Group, 10/22/2014

15. 2014/15 Crop Margins

16. 2015/16 Crop Margins

17. Hog Crush Margin
The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs.
Carcass weight: 200 pounds Pig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futures
Corn: 10 bushels per pig Soybean meal: 150 pounds per pig
Source: ISU Extension

18. Hogs and Pigs Inventory
Source: USDA-NASS

19. Litter Rate
Source: USDA-NASS

20. Sows Farrowed
Source: USDA-NASS

21. Current Lean Hog Futures
Source: CME Group, 10/22/2014

22. Cattle Crush Margin
The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs.
Live weight: pounds Feeder weight: 750 pounds
Corn: 50 bushels per head
Source: ISU Extension

23. Cattle on Feed: 1,000+ Feedlots
Source: USDA-NASS

24. Cattle Placed: 1,000+ Feedlots
Source: USDA-NASS

25. Current Cattle Futures
Source: CME Group, 10/22/2014

26. U.S. Meat Production & Prices
Source: USDA-WAOB 26 26

27. Net Farm Income

28. Iowa Land Values
Source: Mike Duffy, ISU

29. Iowa Land Values – Log Scale
Source: Mike Duffy, ISU

30. Land Values and Income
Source: Mike Duffy, ISU

31. Land Values and Income
Source: Mike Duffy, ISU

32. Recent Changes
Source: Federal Reserve of Chicago

33. Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www. econ
Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: Iowa Farm Outlook: Ag Decision Maker: