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Joe Horner April 22, 2015. Dairy Outlook in a Nutshell Supply Neutral –US cow numbers – rising slowly 1.1% (Feb 2015 year over year) –US milk per cow.

Published byAugustus Cox Modified over 8 years ago

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Presentation on theme: "Joe Horner April 22, 2015. Dairy Outlook in a Nutshell Supply Neutral –US cow numbers – rising slowly 1.1% (Feb 2015 year over year) –US milk per cow."— Presentation transcript:

1 Joe Horner April 22, 2015

2 Dairy Outlook in a Nutshell Supply Neutral –US cow numbers – rising slowly 1.1% (Feb 2015 year over year) –US milk per cow – rising 0.6% (Feb 2015 year over year) –US milk production – rising 1.7% (Feb 2015 year over year) –California drought constraining 1/5 milk (-3.8% Feb 2015 year over year ) Demand Neutral –Domestic – Spring flush moving supply to storage –Exports – Strong dollar hurting exports vs. NZ & EU –Global – Chinese and Middle Eastern weakness Outlook Better than feared –Margins pressured, but milk price hasn’t collapsed –Cull cow prices vs. milk prices dictate length of low prices

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5 Stocks – Rising Bullish Neutral Bearish

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8 http://www.fsa.usda.gov/FSA/pages/content/farmBill/fb_MPPDTool.jsp

9 Dairy Price Outlook 1 st Half 2015 2 nd Half 2015 USDA – All Milk Price February 17, 2015 $16.00 - $17.00$17.05 - $19.30$17.05 -$17.65 MO Farm Forecast $18.25$19.00$18.50

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