University Extension/Department of Economics Crop Outlook for 2011 Iowa Institute for Cooperatives 2010 Annual Meeting Ames, Iowa November 23, 2010 Chad Hart Assistant Professor/Grain Markets Specialist

University Extension/Department of Economics U.S. Corn Supply and Use Source: USDA Area Planted(mil. acres) Yield(bu./acre) Production(mil. bu.)13,03812,09213,11012,540 Beg. Stocks(mil. bu.)1,3041,6241,6731,708 Imports(mil. bu.) Total Supply(mil. bu.)14,36213,72914,79214,257 Feed & Residual(mil. bu.)5,9135,1825,1595,300 Ethanol(mil. bu.)3,0493,7094,5684,800 Food, Seed, & Other(mil. bu.)1,3381,3161,3701,380 Exports(mil. bu.)2,4371,8491,9871,950 Total Use(mil. bu.)12,73712,05613,08413,430 Ending Stocks(mil. bu.)1,6241,6731, Season-Average Price($/bu.)

University Extension/Department of Economics U.S. Soybean Supply and Use Area Planted(mil. acres) Yield(bu./acre) Production(mil. bu.)2,6772,9673,3593,375 Beg. Stocks(mil. bu.) Imports(mil. bu.) Total Supply(mil. bu.)3,2613,1853,5123,536 Crush(mil. bu.)1,8031,6621,7521,665 Seed & Residual(mil. bu.) Exports(mil. bu.)1,1591,2791,5011,570 Total Use(mil. bu.)3,0563,0473,3613,351 Ending Stocks(mil. bu.) Season-Average Price($/bu.) Source: USDA

University Extension/Department of Economics World Corn Production Source: USDA

University Extension/Department of Economics World Soybean Production Source: USDA

University Extension/Department of Economics Corn Export Sales Source: USDA, FAS

University Extension/Department of Economics Soybean Export Sales Source: USDA, FAS

University Extension/Department of Economics Ethanol Margins Source: ISU, CARD

University Extension/Department of Economics Ethanol Margins Source: ISU, CARD

University Extension/Department of Economics Corn Futures Trade Source: CFTC

University Extension/Department of Economics Projected 2010 Season-Average Corn Price

University Extension/Department of Economics Projected 2011 Season-Average Soy Price

University Extension/Department of Economics Principal Crop Area Source: USDA-NASS

University Extension/Department of Economics States with Room to Grow StateMillion acresCompeting Crops North Dakota2.009Wheat, corn, soy South Dakota1.020Wheat, corn, soy Arkansas0.880Rice, cotton, soy Missouri0.335All of the above Illinois0.311Wheat, corn, soy Kentucky0.311Wheat, corn, soy Louisiana0.290Rice, cotton, soy North Carolina0.284Cotton, corn, soy Kansas0.264Wheat, corn, soy Tennessee0.256Wheat, corn, soy

University Extension/Department of Economics New Crop Futures Price Movements WheatCornSoybeansCotton MGE Sept.CME Dec.CME Nov.ICE Dec. ($/bu.) ($/lb.) June Nov Change42%37%35%33% WheatCornSoybeansCotton MGE Sept.CME Dec.CME Nov.ICE Dec. ($/bu.) ($/lb.) June Nov Change31%22% 17%

University Extension/Department of Economics Thoughts for 2011 and Beyond  General economic conditions  Continued economic recovery is a major key for crop prices  Fears of Chinese inflation and credit tightening have hit the markets  Long-term oil price remain in the $90 range  Supply/demand concerns  South America: La Niña impacts  Biofuels: E10, E12, or E15; Do the tax credits get extended/renewed?  Will supply be able to keep pace with demand?  2010/11:USDA:Corn $5.20, Soy $11.45 Futures (as of 11/22/2010):Corn $4.91, Soy $11.33  2011/12: Futures (as of 11/22/2010):Corn $4.67, Soy $10.95

University Extension/Department of Economics Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: Iowa Farm Outlook: Ag Decision Maker: