1. Crop Outlook Iowa Institute for Coops Annual Meeting Ames, Iowa
Nov. 22, 2011
Chad Hart
Assistant Professor/Grain Markets Specialist 1 1

2. U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2008 2009 2010 2011 Area Planted (mil. acres)
86.0
86.4
88.2
91.9
Yield
(bu./acre)
153.9
164.7
152.8
146.7
Production
(mil. bu.)
12,092
13,092
12,447
12,310
Beg. Stocks
1,624
1,673
1,708
1,128
Imports 14 8 28 15
Total Supply
13,729
14,774
14,182
13,453
Feed & Residual
5,182
5,125
4,792
4,600
Ethanol
3,709
4,591
5,021
5,000
Food, Seed, & Other
1,316
1,370
1,407
1,410
Exports
1,849
1,980
1,835
1,600
Total Use
12,056
13,066
13,054
12,610
Ending Stocks
843
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
4.06
3.55
5.18
6.70
Source: USDA-WAOB 2 2

3. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use
2008
2009
2010
2011
Area Planted
(mil. acres)
75.7
77.5
77.4
75.0
Yield
(bu./acre)
39.7
44.0
43.5
41.3
Production
(mil. bu.)
2,967
3,359
3,329
3,046
Beg. Stocks
205
138
151
215
Imports 13 15 14
Total Supply
3,185
3,512
3,495
3,275
Crush
1,662
1,752
1,648
1,635
Seed & Residual
106
110
130
120
Exports
1,279
1,499
1,501
1,325
Total Use
3,047
3,361
3,280
3,080
Ending Stocks
195
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
9.97
9.59
11.30
12.60
Source: USDA-WAOB 3 3

4. Corn vs. Wheat Source: CME Group, 11/21/2011
In feed markets, corn has become a high-priced feed product. Wheat and other feed materials have filled in some of corn’s traditional role in feeds as they are competitively priced. This affects not only domestic feed markets, but also international demand for corn.
Source: CME Group, 11/21/2011

5. Change of Export Pace
With China heading to South America for new supplies, export demand has been very soft.

6. Corn Grind for Ethanol Source: DOE-EIA
Corn grind for ethanol has been fairly steady over the past year and expectations are that it will remain in the 5 billion bushel range.
Source: DOE-EIA

7. Iowa Corn Prices vs. Costs
While costs are increasing, margins are still strongly positive for corn.

8. Iowa Soybean Prices vs. Costs
The gap is much smaller for soybeans.

9. Principal Crop Area Source: USDA-NASS
Both crops would like additional area, and it is available if Mother Nature allows.
Source: USDA-NASS

10. States with Room to Grow
The Dakotas, the lower Mississippi, and the Southern Plains have the room to grow, but that is also where the floods and drought hit. So while the land is available, it may not be assessable.
Number is the difference in planted acres between 2008 and 2011

11. The near-term weather outlook shows some improvement in NW Iowa, but dry conditions holding in central and SE Iowa.

12. Thoughts for 2012 and Beyond
General economic conditions
Continued worldwide economic recovery is a major key for crop prices
US job recovery, European financial concerns, Chinese inflation
Supply/demand concerns
Smaller than anticipated U.S. crops
Biofuel growth and energy demand
Corn still has the upper hand in the acreage competition
Will supply be able to keep pace with demand?
2011/12: USDA: Corn $6.70; Soy $12.60
Futures (as of 11/21/11): Corn $5.78; Soy $11.32
2012/13:
Futures (as of 11/21/11): Corn $5.34; Soy $11.26

13. Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www. econ
Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: Iowa Farm Outlook: Ag Decision Maker: