1. Department of Economics Corn Situation and Outlook 2009 Midwest/Great Plains/Western Outlook Conference Columbus, Ohio August 18, 2009 Chad Hart Assistant Professor/Grain Markets Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911

2. Department of Economics U.S. Corn Supply and Use Source: USDA 200720082009 Area Planted(mil. acres)93.586.087.0 Yield(bu./acre)150.7153.9159.5 Production(mil. bu.)13,03812,10112,761 Beg. Stocks(mil. bu.)1,3041,6241,720 Imports(mil. bu.)2015 Total Supply(mil. bu.)14,36213,74014,496 Feed & Residual(mil. bu.)5,9135,2505,300 Ethanol(mil. bu.)3,0493,6504,200 Food, Seed, & Other(mil. bu.)1,3381,2701,275 Exports(mil. bu.)2,4371,8502,100 Total Use(mil. bu.)12,73712,02012,875 Ending Stocks(mil. bu.)1,6241,7201,621 Season-Average Price($/bu.)4.204.053.50

3. Department of Economics Source: USDA

4. Department of Economics U.S. Corn Statistics Source: USDA, Crop Progress

5. Department of Economics U.S. Corn Conditions, Good to Excellent Source: USDA, Crop Progress

6. Department of Economics Source: NOAA, Climate Prediction Center 3 Month Temperature Outlook Aug. – Oct.

7. Department of Economics 3 Month Temperature Outlook Sept. – Nov. Source: NOAA, Climate Prediction Center

8. Department of Economics 3 Month Temperature Outlook Oct. – Dec. Source: NOAA, Climate Prediction Center

9. Department of Economics World Corn Production Source: USDA

10. Department of Economics Hog Returns vs. Corn Prices Sources: ISU Extension, Farrow-to-Finish; USDA-NASS

11. Department of Economics USDA Meat Production Projections Source: USDA, WASDE report

12. Department of Economics Exchange Rates (Jan. 2009 = 1) Source: USDA, ERS

13. Department of Economics Corn Export Sales Source: USDA, FAS

14. Department of Economics 2008 U.S. Corn Exports Source: USDA, FAS

15. Department of Economics Advance Export Sales Source: USDA, FAS

16. Department of Economics 2009 U.S. Corn Export Advance Sales Source: USDA, FAS

17. Department of Economics Crude Oil Futures Prices Source: NYMEX

18. Department of Economics Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS) Crop Year Billion Bushels 20083.57 20094.11 20104.43

19. Department of Economics Ethanol Margins Source: ISU, CARD

20. Department of Economics Outside Influences (Jan. 2007 = 1)

21. Department of Economics Outside Influences (Jan. 2009 = 1)

22. Department of Economics U.S. Stocks-to-Use Ratios

23. Department of Economics World Stocks-to-Use Ratios

24. Department of Economics Corn 1990 - 2006

25. Department of Economics Corn

26. Department of Economics Seasonal Pricing Patterns Source: USDA, NASS, Monthly Price Data 1980-2008

27. Department of Economics Iowa Crop Basis

28. Department of Economics Corn Futures Source: CBOT, 8/14/09 2009 Rev. Ins. Price $4.04

29. Department of Economics Ratio: Nov. 2010 Soy/Dec. 2010 Corn Source: CBOT

30. Department of Economics Input Costs Source: USDA, Agricultural Prices, July 31, 2009

31. Department of Economics Thoughts for 2009 and Beyond  General economic conditions  Recession concerns still hold significant power in the markets  Projected economic recovery is a major key for crop prices for the 2009 crop year  Most important ag. statistics: Crop yield estimates, livestock numbers  USDA is indicating 2009 season-average prices in the neighborhood of $3.50 for corn  Current futures Friday: ’09 Corn $3.09 ’10 Corn $3.54

32. Department of Economics Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: http://www.econ.iastate.edu/faculty/hart/ Iowa Farm Outlook: http://www.econ.iastate.edu/outreach/agriculture/periodicals/ifo/ Ag Decision Maker: http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/