1. Crop Outlook Farm Management In-Service Ames, Iowa Oct. 11, 2010
Chad Hart
Assistant Professor/Grain Markets Specialist 1

2. U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2007 2008 2009 2010 Area Planted (mil. acres)
93.5
86.0
86.5
88.3
Yield
(bu./acre)
150.7
153.9
164.7
155.8
Production
(mil. bu.)
13,038
12,092
13,110
12,664
Beg. Stocks
1,304
1,624
1,673
1,708
Imports 20 14 8 10
Total Supply
14,362
13,729
14,791
14,382
Feed & Residual
5,913
5,182
5,167
5,400
Ethanol
3,049
3,709
4,560
4,700
Food, Seed, & Other
1,338
1,316
1,370
1,380
Exports
2,437
1,849
1,987
2,000
Total Use
12,737
12,056
13,084
13,480
Ending Stocks
902
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
4.20
4.06
3.55
5.00
Source: USDA 2 2

3. Source: USDA-NASS

4. Source: USDA-NASS

5. Source: USDA-NASS

6. Translates to a yield in the 170-175 bu. range
Translates to a yield around 160 bu.
Source: USDA-NASS

7. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use
2007
2008
2009
2010
Area Planted
(mil. acres)
64.7
75.7
77.5
77.7
Yield
(bu./acre)
41.7
39.7
44.0
44.4
Production
(mil. bu.)
2,677
2,967
3,359
3,408
Beg. Stocks
574
205
138
151
Imports 10 13 15
Total Supply
3,261
3,185
3,512
3,569
Crush
1,803
1,662
1,752
1,665
Seed & Residual 93
106
111
140
Exports
1,159
1,279
1,498
1,520
Total Use
3,056
3,047
3,361
3,305
Ending Stocks
265
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
10.10
9.97
9.59
10.75
Source: USDA 7 7

8. Source: USDA-NASS 8 8

9. Source: USDA-NASS 9 9

10. Within a bushel of each other
Source: USDA-NASS 10 10

11. World Corn Production
Source: USDA 11 11

12. Corn – Argentina & Brazil
Source: USDA 12 12

13. World Soybean Production
Source: USDA 13 13

14. Soybeans – Argentina & Brazil
Source: USDA 14 14

15. La Niña Winter
Source: NOAA 15 15

16. Clearing Old Stocks
The current stocks set-up is reminiscent of the transition between the 2006 and 2007 crops.
Source: USDA 16 16

17. Historical Export Levels
Week 5 of marketing year
Source: USDA, FAS

18. Corn Export Shifts
Source: USDA, FAS

19. Soy Export Shifts
Source: USDA, FAS

20. Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS)
Crop
Year
Billion Bushels
2009
4.11
2010
4.43
2011
4.64
2012
4.86 20 20

21. Ethanol Blending Advantage

22. Projected 2010 Season-Average Corn Price

23. Projected 2010 Season-Average Soy Price

24. Projected 2011 Season-Average Corn Price

25. Projected 2011 Season-Average Soy Price

26. Iowa Corn Prices vs. Costs
Right now, futures are in $5 range for 2010 and 2011 corn

27. Iowa Soybean Prices vs. Costs
Futures are nearly $11 for 2010 and 2011 beans

28. This Year
Corn $4.70
Soy $10.51

29. Thoughts for 2010 and Beyond
General economic conditions
Continued economic recovery is a major key for crop prices
Long-term oil price remain in the $90 range
Supply/demand concerns
Yield and production effects of Midwestern moisture and temperature
Stocks: 2009 vs crop
South America: La Niña impacts
Biofuels: E10, E12, or E15; Do the tax credits get extended/renewed?
Will supply be able to keep pace with demand?
2010/11: USDA: Corn $5.00, Soy $10.75
Futures: Corn $5.01, Soy $10.96
2011/12: Futures: Corn $4.93, Soy $10.88

30. Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www. econ
Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: Iowa Farm Outlook: Ag Decision Maker: