Modelling Long Term Hydrofluorocarbon Emissions Contribution to India's Global Warming Impact Mohit Sharma Junior Research Associate Council on Energy, Environment and Water Climate Day: Negotiating the Climate Cliff: India’s Climate Policy and INDCs New Delhi, 03 Feb 2015 © Council on Energy, Environment and Water, 2015

| CEEW: One of India’s Leading Think-tanks 1

| Historical HFC Emissions From Select Countries ( ) 2SOURCE: EDGAR- Emission database for global atmospheric research, CEEW analysis Transition to HFCs in Developed Countries (estimated share) US 39% China 24% EU 14% Japan 8% India 2%

| Key Research Questions What is the role of future HFC emissions from India in the global warming footprint of Indian emissions and global HFC emissions? What is the potential and cost of HFC emission reductions from various end use sectors, if India moves towards HFCs? How can a cost based strategy to inform a policy of leap-frogging away from high GWP HFCs? 3

| Modelling Framework: First of Its Kind Comprehensive Modelling Analysis from India 4 Combination of Top-down and Bottom-up Analysis Global and Indian Energy Supply Top Down GCAM-IIM Framework Economic and Demographic Drivers Indian Building Sector Energy Service Demands COOKING HEATING COOLINGLIGHTING APPLIANCES Bottom Up HFC Calculation Module EQUIPMENT STOCK End of Life Recollection Leakage Rates HFC EMISSIONS

| BAU Scenario: If India transitions towards HFCs following the ‘HCFC Phase-out Management Plan’ 5

| End-use HFC Emissions under BAU Scenario 6SOURCE: CEEW Analysis Transport Residential Buildings Commercial Buildings Total contribution of HFCs to India’s global warming impact in 2050 would be 5% HFC emissions from end-use sectors will grow significantly: by 130 times from current level to 438 million tonne CO 2 e in

| Emissions from Energy Consumption versus HFC Emissions 7SOURCE: CEEW Analysis 35% Share of HFC in total greenhouse gas emissions is especially high (50%) for commercial refrigeration Residential AC greenhouse gas emissions: approx. 0.5 billion tonne CO 2 e in 2050 Major HFC Emitting Sectors 36% 20% 50% 3.4% Operational leakages are important variable

| Key Policy Discussions 8 Moving to low-GWP refrigerants can reduce global warming impact of the sector by % in 2050 Sustainable growth can further reduce the impact to 45% of emissions under BAU Alternatives are available, with their energy efficiency and climate benefit Business case for AC industry to leapfrog away from high GWP HFCs Several companies are experimenting with or marketing products with alternative refrigerants Adoption rate for room-AC alternatives is too low Are there any proprietary or IPR issues related to alternatives? Can propane use be extended to capacity segment where it is viable (< 1.5 TR) Policy packages for commercially proven alternatives Potential phase-down pathways, key concerns for industry and policy-makers: Cost and flexibility offered by phase-down schedule Advancement of HPMP deadline for sectors where alternatives are not available What can we learn from HFC best practices? Relative importance of HFC mitigation efforts for GHG emissions reduction Comparing mitigation cost for HFC abatement to other mitigation options Cost of alternative phasedown arrangements

| 9 THANK YOU

|