1. Region and sector specific HFC scenarios and effects of MP proposals
(RIVM)
The Netherlands
Region and sector specific HFC scenarios and effects of MP proposals
Guus Velders (PhD) RIVM, NL
David Fahey (PhD) NOAA, USA
John Daniel (PhD) NOAA, USA
Stephen Andersen (PhD) IGSD, USA
Mack McFarland (PhD) Dupont/
Chemours, USA
Bangkok, OEWG35, April 22, 2015

2. Take home message New HFC scenarios: 11 regions, 13 sectors, 10 HFCs
Business-as-usual emissions GtCO2-eq/yr 2050
9-31% of increase in annual CO2 emissions from 2010 to 2050
Mainly in developing countries in refrigeration and stationary AC
Regulations in EU, USA and Japan reduce their national 2050 emissions by 45-75%
Montreal Protocol Amendment proposals reduce 2050 emissions by 50-90%
Global adoption of technologies required to meet national regulations are sufficient meet North American proposal by 50% or more for most countries by 2050
Guus Velders, April 22, 2015

3. New HFC scenarios Starting point: Need for consistent and robust data
Large growth rates in observed mixing ratios of most HFCs
Growth in HCFC consumption (UNEP)
HCFC phase-out in Montreal Protocol
Expected growth in demand for HFCs for refrigeration, AC, etc.
National regulation: EU, USA, Japan, etc.
Montreal Protocol amendment proposals
Need for consistent and robust data
Communicate in support of decision making process
Scenarios ( )
Business-as-usual scenarios
Effects of national regulations
Effects of proposed amendments
CO2-eq consumption and emissions, Radiative forcing
Montzka et al. (2015)
Guus Velders, April 22, 2015

4. Building blocks of the HFC scenarios
Guus Velders, April 22, 2015

5. Details of the business-as-usual scenarios
Historical consumption developed countries
UNFCCC/CRF: Emissions and stocks per country, sector, HFCs, year
 consumption data and emission factors
“Complete” for all refrigeration and air conditioning sectors
Limited information for foams, aerosols, fire extinguishing, solvents
Historical consumption developing countries
Published consumption data for China
All countries: Additional HFC consumption for mobile AC, domestic refrigeration
Historical HCFC consumption from UNEP
Replacement of HCFCs with HFCs and not-in-kind alternatives
Refrigeration and AC: HCFC-22  R-404A, R-410A, NIK (10%)
Foams: HCFC-141b  HFC-245fa/365mfc, NIK (50%)
HCFC-142b  HFC-134a, NIK (50%)
Guus Velders, April 22, 2015

6. Details of the business-as-usual scenarios (2)
Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)
Framework for assessing impacts, adaptation and mitigation of climate change
Forms the underlying layer of IPCC/RCP scenarios
Five storylines
Data for 32 regions
Developed countries: HFC demand grows with population
Developing countries: HFC demand grows with Gross Domestic Product GDP
Saturation of consumption
Per capita use in developing countries assumed to not exceed per capita use in USA
Applied per sector
Export of HFCs contained in equipment taken into account
Consumption constrained by observed mixing ratios
Global mean data of HFC-32, HFC-125, HFC-134a, HFC-143a
Used mainly for refrigeration and air conditioning
Guus Velders, April 22, 2015

7. Emissions inferred from observations
Robust information
Inferred from observed global mean mixing ratios
Bottom-up emission
Calculated from consumption data and emission factors
About 50% from reported UNFCCC data in developed countries
Significant contributions from developing countries in recent years
Consumption adjusted
In new scenarios the gap is closed by adjusting the consumption
Guus Velders, April 22, 2015

8. HFC scenarios: CO2-eq emissions
Main contributions from HCFC replacements
Projections of HFCs emissions in 2050:
~20% from historical HFCs in developed countries
~17% from historical HFCs in developing countries
~63% from replacements of HCFCs in developing countries
Guus Velders, April 22, 2015

9. HFC scenarios: CO2-eq emissions (2)
Main contributions from HCFC replacements
Projections of HFCs emissions in 2050:
~20% from historical HFCs in developed countries
~17% from historical HFCs in developing countries
~63% from replacements of HCFCs in developing countries
Saturation limits emissions past 2025
Consumption per capita in developing countries limited
Limits reduce A5 emissions from GtCO2-eq/yr to GtCO2-eq/yr in 2050
Non-A5 emissions are GtCO2-eq/yr in 2050
Total emissions GtCO2-eq/yr in 2050
Guus Velders, April 22, 2015

10. Business-as-usual emissions for each region
Major 2050 emissions from developing countries
Historical emissions mainly from USA and EU
China is projected to be largest emitter in 2020
Major regions in 2050
China (31%)
Other Asian countries (16%)
USA (11%), Middle East - N. Africa (11%)
Guus Velders, April 22, 2015

11. Business-as-usual consumption
Guus Velders, April 22, 2015

12. Business-as-usual emissions per region
CO2-eq emissions
Main non-A5 regions: USA, EU
Main A5 regions: China, other Asian countries
Main sectors:
ICR: Industrial and commercial refrigeration
SAC: Stationary AC
MAC: Mobile AC (only for non-A5)
Guus Velders, April 22, 2015

13. Comparison with other scenarios
Velders et al. (2009)
Differences in growth rates IPCC/SRES and SSPs
Now specific data for 32 regions
Region specific data yield earlier saturation in consumption for regions
RCP (2011)/IPCC scenarios
Business-as-usual and strong mitigation
Based on older information
HFC baseline vs CO2 RCP6-RCP8.5 scenarios
6-12% of annual CO2 emissions in 2050
9-31% of increase in annual CO2 emissions from
6-9% of CO2 RF in 2050
12-23% of increase in CO2 RF from
Guus Velders, April 22, 2015

14. National/regional regulations
Regulations in force or proposed
EU: Revised F-gas regulation + MAC directive
USA: Proposed changes to SNAP list
Japan: F-gas controls
Also discussion in Canada, Australia
Some assumption were made on how much HFC use in sector is covered by these regulations
Effects of the national regulation on the local emissions
National regulation will drive global technological changes
Effects of the national regulation on emissions in developed and developing countries
Guus Velders, April 22, 2015

15. Emissions from the EU Revised EU F-gas regulation + MAC directive
Bans on high-GWP HFC use for
Domestic and commercial refrigeration
Stationary AC
Mobile AC
Foams, aerosols
Phase-down to 21% of base level in 2030
Reductions in 2050 emissions:
17% from MAC
48% from bans in other sectors
10% from phasedown
Total 75% or GtCO2-eq/yr
Guus Velders, April 22, 2015

16. Emissions from the USA Proposed changes to SNAP list USA
Bans on high-GWP HFC use for:
Commercial refrigeration
Mobile AC
Foams, aerosols
Reductions in 2050 emissions:
20% from MAC
27% from other sectors
Total 47% or GtCO2-eq/yr
Guus Velders, April 22, 2015

17. Emissions from Japan F-gas controls Japan
Limits on average GWP of HFCs for:
Domestic and commercial refrigeration
Stationary AC
Mobile AC
Foams, aerosols
Reductions in 2050 emissions:
15% from MAC
38% from other sectors
Total 53% or 0.04 GtCO2-eq/yr
Guus Velders, April 22, 2015

18. Montreal Protocol amendment proposals
North American countries (2015)
Non-A5 parties: phasedown from 90% in 2019 to 15% of base level in 2036
A5 parties: freeze in 2021, phasedown to 15% of base level in 2046
India (2015)
Non-A5 parties: freeze in 2016, phasedown to 15% in 2035
A5 parties: freeze in 2031, phasedown to 15% in 2050
EU (2015)
Non-A5 parties: phasedown from 85% in 2019 to 15% of base level in 2034
A5 parties: production: freeze in 2019, phasedown to 15% of base level in 2045
consumption: freeze of the combined HFC + HCFC consumption as of 2019
Federated Stated of Micronesia (2014)
Non-A5 parties: phasedown from 85% in 2017 to 10% of base level in 2035
No base level and phasedown schedule defined for A5 parties
Assumption made here for base level: 100% of HCFCs , 100% of HCFC+HFCs
Assumption made here for phasedown: delay by 5, 10, 15 years relative to non-A5 parties
Guus Velders, April 22, 2015

19. Emission reductions following MP proposals
Amendment proposals reduce 2050 emissions by 50-90%
All HFCs in a sector scaled down; replaced by substance/technology with GWP of 10
Proposals have similar effects for non-A5 parties
Differences in proposals for A5 parties:
Controls not formulated for all proposals
Assumptions made in the scenarios
Guus Velders, April 22, 2015

20. Emission reductions following MP proposals
Amendment proposals reduce 2050 emissions by 50-90%
All HFCs in a sector scaled down; replaced by substance/technology with GWP of 10
Proposals have similar effects for non-A5 parties
Differences in proposals for A5 parties:
Controls not formulated for all proposals
Assumptions made in the scenarios
Radiative forcing projected to decrease after 2035, or after 2050
Guus Velders, April 22, 2015

21. Regional impacts of regulations vs MP proposals
Reductions in national emissions bridge the gap in part
EU: Regulations sufficient to reduce emissions to MP targets
USA: Proposed SNAP change reduces emissions to about half the MP proposals
No limits for stationary AC
Japan: Regulations reduce emissions by about two-thirds of the MP proposals
Guus Velders, April 22, 2015

22. Global impacts of national regulations
New technologies being developed to meet national regulations
Global adoption of technologies required to meet national regulations is likely
Developing countries assumed to follow developed countries after 5 years
Comparison with North American MP amendment proposal
Consumption and emissions more or less stabilize
Radiative forcing continues to increase
Guus Velders, April 22, 2015

23. Proposals to MP met in part by regulations
Global effects of technologies
National regulations applied globally (5 years later for A5 parties)
Effects on reductions in cumulative consumption ( ) relative to North American proposal
Reductions meet North American proposal by 50% or more for most countries by 2050
Following current/proposed regulations alone
Differences between countries due to differences in HFC use in sectors and regulations
Guus Velders, April 22, 2015

24. Conclusions New HFC scenarios for 11 regions, 13 sectors, 10 HFCs
Business-as-usual emissions GtCO2-eq/yr 2050
9-31% of annual increases in CO2 emissions from 2010 to 2050
Main regions: China (31%), rest of Asia (23%) in 2050, USA (11%)
Main sectors: refrigeration (36-59%), stationary AC (21-35%)
Regulations in EU, USA and Japan reduce national 2050 emissions by 45-75%
Montreal Protocol Amendment proposals reduce 2050 emissions by 50-90%
Global adoption of technologies required to meet national regulations are sufficient meet NA proposal by 50% or more for most countries by 2050
Guus Velders, April 22, 2015

25. Thank you Questions or request? Status of this work: “to be published”
The effects of other regulations and Montreal Protocol proposals can be estimated
Thank you
Guus Velders, April 22, 2015

26. Business-as-usual emissions: non-A5 countries
CO2-eq emissions
Small increases due to HCFC phase-out
Past 2020 growth following population
Main regions: USA, EU
Main sectors:
ICR: Industrial and commercial refrigeration
SAC: Stationary AC; MAC: Mobile AC
Guus Velders, April 22, 2015

27. Business-as-usual emissions: A5 countries
CO2-eq emissions
Growth proportional to GDP
Differences between regions:
Economic growth (GDP)
Saturation for some sectors
Main regions: China, other Asian countries
Main sectors: ICR, stationary AC
Guus Velders, April 22, 2015

28. Business-as-usual consumption: non-A5 countries
CO2-eq consumption
Guus Velders, April 22, 2015

29. Business-as-usual consumption: A5 countries
CO2-eq consumption
Guus Velders, April 22, 2015