1. IIM Ahmedabad Climate Policy Modeling: Some Insights for India Presentation by P.R. Shukla Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad COP 8 Side-event (October 25 - 15:00 to 17:00 hours) Asia-Pacific Forum for Collaborative Modeling of Climate Policy Assessment October 25, 2002, Hotel Grand Inter-Continental, New Delhi

2. IIM Ahmedabad Integrated Framework for Climate Change

3. IIM Ahmedabad AIM Model System Land use Temperature Precipitation Sunshine Water resource Crop Productivity Socio-economic indicator Impact on food demand Adaptation strategy AIM/Ecosystem /Water/Impact A set of ecosystem models, including a vegetation dynamics model, a water resource model, an agricultural productivity model and a health impact model A reduced-form model to project future socio- economic trends and environmental change for all 42 countries Future economic trend Future environmental trend India Thailand Korea Japan China AIM/Trend Industry Green Purchase Environ- mental Burden Environment Fund Environmental Industry (waste management, recycle) Wastes Environmental Burden Recycle Technology needs Technology assessment Environmental Industry Environmental burden Consumer Research on new technologies AIM/Material A environment- economy integrated model with material balance and recycling process modules AIM/Energy /Technology/Country A bottom-up technology selection model of energy use and emissions at country and local level AIM/Bottom-up A bottom-up technology & land use model for Asia-Pacific region AIM/Top-down A general-equilibrium- type world economic model AIM Family

4. IIM Ahmedabad Model System for India’s Emissions Policy Analysis Models Top-down Models AIM/Material SGM GEMA ERB AIM/Trend Local Models AIM/Emissions GIS Inventory Assessment Health Impact Assessment Model Bottom-up Models ANSWER – MARKAL Stochastic MARKAL Demand Projection AIM/End-use Power Sector LP

5. IIM Ahmedabad Soft-linked Models Framework

6. IIM Ahmedabad Insights from Integrated Climate Change Assessment

7. IIM Ahmedabad Few Key Questions for Emissions Policies What is the cost-effective emissions pathways to achieve a specific “GHG concentration stabilization” level? What will be the future trends of emissions and intensities? How the local and GHG emissions control policies linked? What is mitigation supply curve for India? How can regional cooperation help in climate change issues? What would be the implications of stabilization regime, e.g. 550 ppmv, on India’s energy system during the century Is it worth to fund supply-side push of clean technologies like solar PV for GHG mitigation?

8. IIM Ahmedabad The Framework Convention On Climate Change (UNFCCC) Objective:...stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. (p.5)

9. IIM Ahmedabad Emissions and Concentrations IS92a

10. IIM Ahmedabad Energy ConsumptionCarbon Emissions 0 200 400 600 800 19952005201520252035 Year Carbon (MT) Energy and Carbon Emissions for India: AIM/ENDUSE Model 0 10 20 30 40 50 19952005201520252035 Year Exa Joules Coal Oil Gas Hydro Nuclear Renewables Biomass

11. IIM Ahmedabad Energy, Carbon, Electricity and GDP (History and Projections for Reference Scenario)

12. IIM Ahmedabad GDP intensities of Energy, Electricity and Carbon (Reference Scenario)

13. IIM Ahmedabad SO 2 Emission AIM/Emission Model 20002030

14. IIM Ahmedabad GHG versus Local Emissions in India Carbon EmissionsSO 2 Emissions 0 200 400 600 800 19952005201520252035 Year Carbon (MT) Year Million Tonnes 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 19952005201520252035 7

15. IIM Ahmedabad Carbon Mitigation Supply Curve (2005-2035) 6 billion tons of mitigation below $25/ ton of carbon 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 1234567 Carbon abatement (billion ton) Cost ($/Ton of Carbon)

16. IIM Ahmedabad Carbon Mitigation (under different Post-Kyoto Scenarios) (in Million Ton)

17. IIM Ahmedabad Indian Energy System Transformation Under 550 ppmv Stabilization Base Case Energy SystemEnergy Changes: 550 ppmv Case MTC 550 ppmv

18. IIM Ahmedabad Technological Change in India to Stabilize CO 2 at 550 ppmv 550 PPMV Non-Fossil Energy Contribution to GHG Mitigation 40 0 80 0 1200 2000 1600

19. IIM Ahmedabad Regional Energy Market Development

20. IIM Ahmedabad Impact of Regional Energy Market Developments in South-Asia Carbon SOX 0.0 1.5 3.0 4.5 6.0 7.5 9.0 10.5 Reduction (%) Year Emissions Reduction (2015 ) Grid Integration Grid Integration + Regional Co-operation

21. IIM Ahmedabad Advanced Technology: Competitive Paradox 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 199020002010202020302040 2050 Base Hi-Solar $25 Tax Med-Solar + $25 Tax 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% High Solar$25 TaxMed Sol+ $25 Tax Solar PV Penetration Carbon Mitigation

22. IIM Ahmedabad Conclusions There is no “silver bullet” for mitigation or adaptation Local and global emissions mitigation policies are disjointed Regional cooperation can reduce the climate mitigation and impacts costs significantly Strong mitigation regime, e.g. 550 ppmv, can alter the regional energy system significantly Global cost-effectiveness requires substantial mitigation (and adaptation) in developing countries Supply-push of few clean technologies is inadequate for mitigation Climate Change impacts is complicated due to “winners and losers” rather than absolute impacts burden Integrated policy assessment is vital for linking climate change and sustainable development