According to the UN, world population is expected to grow to 9.2 billion by the year What challenges do you see if this prediction proves accurate?

 Students should be able to predict future population trends.  Students will discuss consequences / challenges based upon future population trends.  Students will fully comprehend the 4 phases of the Demographic Transition Model.

 World Population Clock World Population Clock  2013 Pop. Map with 2050 projections 2013 Pop. Map with 2050 projections  World Population Milestones World Population Milestones  Note the time it took to add each additional billion after the first in 1827!

 RNI = Rate of Natural increase. It is found by taking the number of births and subtracting the number of deaths (does not account for migration into or out of a country).  TFR = Total Fertility Rate. This is a measure of the average # of children a woman will have in her child bearing years.  Youthfulness of a population is a measure of the % of the total population that is <15 yrs. Of age…it is vital to maintaining productive stability in a nation.

 China1.3 Billion  India1.2 B  USA313 Million  Indonesia246 M  Brazil203 M  Pakistan187 M  Bangladesh159 M  Nigeria155 M  Russia139 M  Japan126 M

 India 1.7 Billion  China 1.3 B  USA 403 Million  Nigeria 390 M  Indonesia 293 M  Pakistan275 M  Brazil223 M  Bangladesh194 M  Philippines155 M  Democratic Republic of the Congo149 M

 Phase #1 – Pre Industrial  High Birth Rates  High Death Rates  Slow Rate of Natural Increase (RNI)  Usually associated with poor public health measures like lack of sanitation.  AKA – Less Developed Countries, 3 rd World Countries

 Median Age – 18.1  Life expectancy at birth –  Total fertility Rate – 5.97 children / woman

 Phase #2 – Transitional  High Birth Rates  Death Rates Fall (Higher Life expectancies)  Rapid Rise in the RNI  Associated with improved economic and social conditions

 Median Age – 26.5 years  Life expectancy at birth – years  Total Fertility Rate – 2.58 children per woman

 Phase #3 – Transitional  Birth Rates Begin to Fall rapidly  Death Rates Fall slightly  RNI begins to level off  In an urbanized and industrial society people begin to see the benefits of smaller families.

 Phase #4 – Industrial  Low Birth Rates  Low Death Rates  RNI is relatively flat or even in slight decline  Usually associated with highly industrialized and highly urbanized countries.

 Median Age – 44.8  Life expectancy at birth –  Total fertility Rate – 1.21 children / woman

 PUSH FORCES: drive people from their homelands.  EXAMPLES: civil war or unrest; environmental disasters; unemployment; ?  PULL FORCES: things that attract migrant populations to certain locations.  EXAMPLES: better economic opportunity; better health services; better educational opportunities; personal & political freedom; ?

 Migration of people from rural areas to urban areas.  Growth of cities.  URBANIZED POPULATION = % of an area’s total population that lives in cities.  Currently about 50% of the world’s population lives in urban areas.  This number is increasing at a rapid rate throughout the entire world  URBAN PRIMACY – a city that is disproportionately large & dominates economic, political & cultural activities.

 When the urban population grows more quickly than support services such as housing, transportation, waste disposal and water supply  Fairly common in 3 rd World Countries

 Illegal developments of makeshift housing on land neither owned nor rented by the inhabitants.  Fairly common in many LDC’s or 3 rd World Countries