# Population, Resources, and Sustainability

## Presentation on theme: "Population, Resources, and Sustainability"— Presentation transcript:

Population, Resources, and Sustainability
Chapter 10 Population, Resources, and Sustainability

Key Questions How is population size affected by the number of males and females at each age level? How can population growth be slowed? What success have India and China had in slowing population growth? How can global population growth be reduced?

How is Population Size Affected by Birth and Death Rates?
Population size depends on: births, deaths, and migration Population change = (births + immigration) – (deaths + emigration) When births and immigration are more than deaths and emigration, population is growing When deaths and emigration are more than births and immigration, population is declining

How Do We Find Birth and Death Rates?
Crude birth rate: number of live births per 1,000 people in a population in a year Crude death rate: number of deaths per 1,000 people in a population in a year

World 21 9 All developed countries 11 10 All developing 24 8
Average crude birth rate Average crude death rate World All developed countries All developing Developing (w/o China) 21 9 11 10 24 8 29 © 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning

Some Facts Every time your heart beats, 2.3 more babies are added to the world’s population More births are occurring than deaths We share the earth’s resources with 216,000 more people each day Equivalent of filling up a jumbo jet with 400 new passengers every 2.7 minutes!

Calculate the World’s Annual Population Change
Annual rate of population change (%) = birth rate – death rate x 100 1,000 people = birth rate – death rate 10

<1% 1-1.9% 2-2.9% 3+% Data not available Annual world
population growth <1% 1-1.9% 2-2.9% 3+% Data not available

Map An exponential growth rate of 1.28% may seem small, but it adds about 79 million people per year to the world’s population! Equivalent to adding a New York City every month!

Population in billions
2.5 10 2.0 8 1.5 6 Population in billions Growth rate (percent) 1.0 4 0.5 2 0.0 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Year Less developed countries More developed countries

World’s 10 Most Populous Countries
China and India together make up 37% of the world’s population The US has the 3rd largest population, but only 4.6% of the world’s people

© 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning
China © 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning 1.28 billion 1.5 billion India 1 billion 1.4 billion USA 288 million 346 million Indonesia 217 million 282 million Brazil 174 million 219 million Pakistan 144 million 242 million Russia 144 million 129 million Bangladesh 134 million 178 million Japan 127 million 121 million Nigeria 130 million 205 million 2002 2025

How have Global Fertility Rates Changed?
1. Replacement fertility: number of children a couple must have to replace themselves Slightly higher than 2 in developed countries and 2.5 in most developing countries Reason? Some female children die before reproductive years

How have Global Fertility Rates Changed?
2. Total Fertility Rate: estimate of the average number of children a female will have during her childbearing years TFRs have sharply dropped since 1950

© 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning
World 5 children per women 2.8 Developed countries 2.5 1.6 © 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning Developing countries 6.5 3.1 Africa 6.6 5.2 Latin America 5.9 2.7 Asia 5.9 2.6 Oceania 3.8 2.5 North America 3.5 2.1 Europe 2.6 1.4 1950 2002

Births per thousand population
32 30 28 26 24 Births per thousand population 22 20 18 End of World War II 16 Demographic transition 14 Depression Baby boom Baby bust Echo baby boom 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Year

U.S. Birth Rates Fell Sharply because…
Demographic transition: Industrialization and urbanization Educated women working outside home THEN, Baby Boom Period: after WW1 Echo Boom Period: people born during baby boom started having children

What Factors Affect Birth Rates?
Importance of children as part of labor force Urbanization Cost of raising children Employment opportunities for women Infant mortality rate Average age at marriage Availability of abortions Availability of birth control Religious beliefs, traditions, and cultural norms

What Factors Affect Death Rates?
Food supply and distribution Nutrition Improvements in medical technology Improvements in sanitization and personal hygiene Safer water supplies

Life Expectancy Average number of years a newborn infant can be expected to live In the world’s poorest countries, life expectancy is 55 years or less. High infant mortality rate = not enough food, malnutrition, or high infectious diseases

© 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning
United States Mexico Canada © 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning 288 million Population (2002) 102 million 31 million Projected population (2025) 346 million 132 million 36 million Infant mortality rate 6.6 25 5.3 77 years Life expectancy 75 years 79 years 2.1 Total fertility rate (TFR) 2.9 1.5 21% % population under age 15 33% 19% 13% % population over age 65 5% 13% \$34,110 Per capita GNI PPP \$8,790 \$27,170

Infant Mortality and Birth Rates
U.S. has the highest teen pregnancy rate of any developed country. Each year, 872,000 teenage girls become pregnant and 253,000 have abortions Babies born to teenage mothers usually have low birth weight which causes infant mortality.

What Are Age Structure Diagrams?
Age structure: the proportion of the population at each age level Plot percentages of males and females in the population in each of 3 categories: Prereproductive: ages 0-14 Reproductive: ages 15-44 Postreproductive: ages 45 and up

© 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning
Male Female Male Female Rapid Growth Guatemala Nigeria Saudi Arabia Slow Growth United States Australia Canada Ages 0-14 Ages 15-44 Ages © 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning

© 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning
Male Female Male Female Zero Growth Spain Austria Greece Negative Growth Germany Bulgaria Sweden Ages 0-14 Ages 15-44 Ages © 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning

Population (millions) © 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning
Developed Countries 85+ 80-85 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 Male Female Age 300 200 100 100 200 300 Population (millions) © 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning

Population (millions) © 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning
Developing Countries 85+ 80-85 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 Male Female Age 300 200 100 100 200 300 Population (millions) © 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning

Population (2002) Population projected (2025) Infant mortality rate
United States (highly developed) 288 million 174 million Brazil (moderately developed) 130 million Nigeria (less developed) Population projected (2025) 346 million 219 million 205 million Infant mortality rate 6.8 33 75 Life expectancy 77 years 69 years 52 years Fertility rate (TFR) 2.1 2.2 5.8 %Population under age 15 21% 33% 44% % Population over age 65 13% 5% 3% Per capita GNI PPP (2000) \$34,100 \$7,300 \$800 © 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning

What Are Some Effects of Population Decline from Reduced Fertility?
As the % of people over 60 increases, more countries will experience population declines By 2020, 1 billion people will be 60 or older. Rapid population decline can lead to serious economic and social problems Example: older people consume a large part of medical care, Social Security, and other services funded by taxpayers labor shortages

What Are Some Effects of Population Decline from Rise in Death Rates?
Sharp drop in life expectancy Loss of most productive young adult workers Sharp rise in number of orphans We need to: Reduce the spread of HIV Provide debt relief and financial assistance Send volunteer teachers and social workers

Is the World Overpopulated?
Is it already overpopulated? What should we do to stop population growth? What is the optimum sustainable population? No one knows!

One Viewpoint The world can support billions more people
People are the world’s most valuable resource for solving problems and stimulating economic growth by being consumers Population regulation is a violation of personal freedom

An Opposing Viewpoint We already fail to provide the basic necessities to 1 out of 5 people today If we do not take measures to drop the birth rate, we are increasing the death rate We greatly increase environmental harm

Stages of Development in Countries
Preindustrial: very little population growth due to harsh living conditions Transitional: industrialization begins; food production rises and health care improves; population grows rapidly Industrial: birth rate drops; population growth slows Postindustrial: birth rate declines; zero population growth

How Do We Cut Global Population Growth?
Family planning Empowering women: women have fewer and healthier children when they have access to education and paying jobs AND when they live in societies with rights Reduce poverty