EUROPEAN COMMISSION Monthly Food Security & Nutrition Brief SSS FSRD Meeting April 9, 2008 Nairobi, Kenya Food Security Analysis Unit (FSAU) - Somalia

Emergency Food Security and Nutrition Update

Updated Somalia IPC Map and Population Numbers Rapidly Deteriorating Situation in South & Central Somalia Main Contributing Factors: 1. Extremely Harsh ‘Jilaal’ Dry Season – Throughout Somalia Abnormally high temperatures Unusual dry hot winds  High evaporation of surface water  Accelerated deterioration of pasture and browse 2. Increased Open Conflict and Insecurity – Throughout South and Central Increased number and location of ‘Insecurity Epicenters’  Increasing population displacement (Mogadishu, Hiran)  Further Trade and Economic Disruptions, Decreased Access 3. Continuing High Rates of Inflation in Last Three Months March ‘08 cereal prices are 215% to 475% of March ‘07 Abnormally high increases (up to 80% ) between Jan. – March ’08 IMPACT: Severity differs depending on pre-season conditions MOST SEVERLY IMPACTED: Central regions, Hiran, Bakool, Coastal Shabelle, Pockets in Sool, Nugal and Hawd regions in the Northern regions

Climate Extremely Harsh ‘Jilaal’ Dry Season – Throughout Somalia Poor cattle body condition in Jalalaqsi/Hiran. Huge fodder sales in Beletweyn, Hiran region, copping mechanism for riverine. Figure 1: Rainfall Anomalies (mm) March 1 – April 2, 2008

CIVIL INSECURITY  Increased number and location of ‘Insecurity Epicenters’ - Throughout South Central

Markets Continuing High Rates of Inflation in Last Three Months Central Region Cereal Prices (SoSh)

Hiran Region (Belet Weyne) Cereal Prices (SSh) Markets Continuing High Rates of Inflation in Last Three Months

Shabelle Valley Cereal Prices (SoSh) Markets Continuing High Rates of Inflation in Last Three Months

Acute Watery Diarrhea (AWD) – WHO Somalia, Mar 12’08, bulletin Between Feb 16- Mar 9, 2008, 477 cases of AWD were reported from Beletweyn including 4 related deaths (CFR=0.84%). Overall, 49% of the cases (234/477) were reported from the MSF-CH hospital, 31% from Kooshin East IMC MCH, 10% from Buunda Weyne IMC MCH and 10% from Buunda Weyne SRCS MCH/OPD. 88% of the cases were children aged <five years Distribution of AWD cases, Beletweyn District Feb16 – Mar 8, 2008 Nutrition Acute Water Diarrhea Outbreak – Hiran Region

Updated Somalia IPC Map (April ‘08) January to June 2008 Comparison of January ‘08 and Revised April ’08 IPC Map Map 1: Post Deyr ’07/08 Projection, January Through June ’08, (Jan. ’08) Map 2: Updated Post Deyr ’07/08 Projection, January Through June ‘08, (April ’08)

Updated Somalia IPC Table (April ‘08) Populations in AFLC & HE, January – June ‘08, Revised April ‘08 Affected Regions UNDP 2005 Total Population 1 Assessed and Contingency Population in AFLC and HE Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC) Humanitarian Emergency (HE) Total in AFLC or HE as % of Region population North2,341, Central Galgaduud330,05755,00070,00038 Mudug350,09925,00030,00016 Sub-Total (Central)680,15680,000100,00026 South Bakool310,62785,00020,00034 Bay620,56220,0005,0004 Gedo328,37835,00010,00014 Hiraan329,81160,00035,00029 Juba Dhexe (Middle)238,87720,00008 Juba Hoose (Lower)385,79060,00015,00019 Shabelle Dhexe (Middle)514,90140,00085,00024 Shabelle Hoose (Lower)850,65185,000155,00028 Sub-Total (South)3,579,597405,000325,00020 Banadir901, GRAND TOTAL7,502,654485,000425,00012 Assessed Rural population in AFLC or HE 910,00012 Estimated number of new IDPs updated April ,00010 Estimated number of old IDPs 275,0004 Estimated total population in crisis 1,930,00026

Updated Somalia IPC Map (April ‘08) January to June 2008 Overall Summary Deterioration in Severity of Crisis: From AFLC to HE (Central, Bakool and Hiran Regions) Increased Levels of Warning: Moderate Risks to Further Deterioration in Shabelle Regions, Northern Parts of Hawd, Sool and Nugal Regions and High Risk in Hiran and Bakool Regions Total Number of Food Insecure is Increasing Increased in number in HE from 315,000 to 425,000 Increased total number in HE and AFLC from 850,000 to 910,00 Increased number of IDPs from 705,000 to 745,000 Increase in TOTAL POPULATION in Crisis: 1.83 to 1.93 million Missing Estimates for Populations in Crisis: o Number of newly displaced people from Belet Weyne (Hiran) o Number of Urban poor in AFLC or HE NOTE: FSAU Rapid Emergency Urban Assessment in selected main urban centers and settlements is ongoing throughout Somalia

Updated Somalia IPC Map (April ‘08) January to June 2008 Overall Summary Risk Factors: Gu Seasonal Rains (start mid-April to June) Inflation – Cereal, Essential Staple & Non-Staple Commodities, Fuel Civil Insecurity and Conflict Implications: Contingency Planning for Increased Needs for Livelihood & Humanitarian Response: 1. Central Regions – Significant increase in needs of rural AFLC & HE, Urban food insecure, IDPS and Host Communities 2.Hiran Region – Significant increase in needs of rural AFLC & HE, Urban food insecure, IDPS and Host Communities 3.Bakool Region – Significant increase in needs of rural AFLC & HE, Urban food insecure 4.Shabelle Region - Increase in needs of rural AFLC & HE, Urban food insecure, IDPS and Host Communities 5.Northern Gedo - Increase in needs of rural AFLC & HE and Urban food insecure 6.North Parts of Hawd, Sool, Nugal Livelihood Zones – New livelihood support needs for rural in AFLC 7.Poor Food Insecure Urban Populations - New livelihood support needs for rural in AFLC

Other Food Security and Nutrition Updates

Malaria prevalence 25 studies on malaria prevalence (P. falciparum) were conducted in Somalia in 2007, using RDT. The studies were conducted concurrently with the FSAU led nutrition surveys, with support from the Global Fund. Data collected has also been in the Global Malaria mapping project. The highest prevalence was recorded in pastoral (20.8%) and the lowest in riverine zones (4%). The overall reported use of nets in the night prior to the survey was 14.4%, though it was higher in the riverine zone (21.4%). Overall infection prevalence was lower in net users (8.1%) compared to non-net users 16.6% - however some nets are in poor condition and require replacement (See photo) Additional studies planned for 2008 Children sleep under a mosquito net, which unfortunately is perforated, FSAU Huddur’07 Nutrition