2014 Elections in Maryland Dan Nataf Director, Center for the Study of Local Issues, Anne Arundel Community College www2.aacc.edu/csli Nov. 13/20, 2014

Governor’s Race: Primary showed early divisions among Democrats – anti-incumbent sentiment Democrats%Republicans% Brown51Hogan43 Gansler24Craig29 Mizeur22Lollar16 George12 Turnout24%

Governor’s Race: General elections shows that Hogan win still the exception statewide General Gov. %VoteHogan - Dem Brown ,890 Hogan51884,400+65,510 Franchot62.7%1,061, ,867 Frosh55.8%935,846-51,446

Maryland General Assembly: 2010 vs *Democratic hegemony eroded but intact Democrats Republicans House of Delegates 98 (69.5%) 93 (66%) House of Delegates 43 (30.5%) 48 (34%) Senate35 (74.5%) 33 (70%) Senate12 (26.5%) 14 (30%)

District 33 House of Delegates

House of Delegates – 30, 31, 32

Senate – 30, 31, 32 Astle sneaks by Quinn in D30DeGrange sweeps in D32

AA County: Council Districts Smith narrow win in D1

Council: Early vs Election Day DistrictEV Gap (D-R)ED Gap (D-R)Loss ED 115.6% (18.4%)* -2.7%18.2% 2-3.1% (21.7%)* -12.8%9.7% % (15.7%)* -48.7%13.0% 417.5% (23%)* 13.2%4.3% 51.1% (24%)* -9.1%10.2% 613.9% (25%)* -1.9%15.9% EV as percentage of total vote

Maryland House of Delegates: 2010 vs Contested, Solid and Uncontested Seats by Party 58/79% of Rep seats were/are solid or uncontested 81/83% of Dem seats were/are solid or uncontested - 74% of all seats in 2014 were solid or contested counting both parties

Maryland Senate: 2010 vs /89% of Dem seats were/are solid or uncontested - 89% of all seats in 2014 were solid or contested counting both parties 92/93% of Rep seats were/are solid or uncontested

Trends in Registered Voters

Turnout by County/Lean:

Trends in Turnout by Party:

Trends in Voting: Governor’s Races (Raw Vote)

Trends in Voting: Governor’s Races Vote by Party

Trends in Voting: Governor’s Races Party Change

Change in Dem Vote by County Baltimore County and Mont. County accounted for biggest Dem losses.

Change in Dem Vote by County Losses are largest in Republican areas.

Franchot, Frosh, Brown by County

Counties Where a Dem Won Statewide

Poll Results: Level of Interest in Gov. Race by Party (CSLI survey) 10 point advantage to Republicans; unaffiliated with lowest interest

How informed about issues in race (Exit Poll) Hogan sympathetic groups with double digit lead over most Brown sympathetic groups

Political Leanings: Exit Poll Dems somewhat more inclined to be independent

Political Leanings: Vote for Governor Democrats much more likely to defect than Republicans; independents lean to Hogan

Defections by Party: Exit Poll Virtually NO Rep. defection; nearly quarter of all Dems defect

Defections by Leaning: Governor’s Race (CSLI survey)

Issues Overall (Exit Poll) Most salient issues leaned favorably to Hogan/Reps. Education is the big exception.

Issues by Candidate Quality of life and equal opportunity issues for Dems

Issues by Political Lean

Issues and Democrats for Brown/Hogan and Republicans for Hogan: Exit Poll

Anne Arundel Results: – Governor’s Race

AA County – Predicts Minimum Democratic Vote Needed for Statewide Win – 38%

Including Shay GAP 39573

Governor’s Race Predicts CE Outcomes: Republicans

Governor’s Race Predicts CE Outcomes: Dems

County Executive Voters – Johnson Vote Johnson losses heightened both due to Dem defections but very low score among centrist groups

County Executive Voters – How informed? As with the Governor’s race, Republican leaning categories were more informed.

County Executive Issues Dems still favor quality of life and equal oppty issues Reps still favor taxes, fiscal and economic issues

County Executive – Reaching Voters FactorOverallJohnsonSchuh Cases% % of total Endorsed by some person or group I respect Newspaper stories about candidate Information from the Internet Endorsed by a newspaper like the Capital, Washington Post or the Sun Literature received in the mail The candidate or a representative came to my door to introduce him/herself Paid ads on TV Paid ads in the newspapers Total

Other Local Races: Adams/Leitess Partisan polarization more predictable for this race.

County Council 5: Vote mostly for or against your candidate – Armstrong Voters Race is determined mostly by Peroutka – love or hate!

Other observations about local races County Council: Dem/Rep district pattern holds (1, 4, 6 Dem; 3, 5, 7 Rep – with 2 swing) State Senate – No change 3 Dem/2 Rep – although margin in District 30 very small House of Delegates – Democrats gain in 31a – otherwise all incumbents return; Sid Saab and Megan Simonaire are new faces for Reps; Mark Chang for Dems Incumbents returned for all other positions. Only Democratic countywide seat now is Sheriff.

Demographics: Gender Gender gap – Dems least supported by men, not compensated by strong support from women.

Demographics: Age by Dem Cands. Older groups support Reps. Dems support varies among younger groups

Demographics: Race Whites favor Reps nearly 2-1 Blacks nearly unanimous in support of Dems

Demographics: Education Higher ed favors Dems

Conclusions Election Environment: Hostile to Democrats /Obama – losses inevitable, damage control. But impact on Brown much greater than on other Dems running statewide and in MGA. Party registration creates overconfidence, false sense of inevitability among Democrats. Turnout differences compensate. Candidate – Invites comparisons to Obama – race, rollout of health exchange Web site, tied to O’Malley, curse of Lt. Govr…Johnson unable to distinguish himself from Brown – gets predicted low vote Campaign: Campaign message matters – Democrats create targeted appeals, lack broader vision or economic message – focus on core Democratic issues – which don’t have much saliency to swing voters Turnout: Ground game matters – Methods become diffused, important in close elections – shape turnout in a low turnout environment. Precedent? An African-American running mate prerequisite for Gov. Republican upswing?– Schuh, Pantelides, Hogan – gains in MGA?