1. Overview of Recent Elections, 2010 By Dan Nataf, Ph.D. Director, Center for the Study of Local Issues Anne Arundel Community College November 18, 2010

2. National Politics: Exit Poll re: House Vote Party identification in 2010 : Dem/Rep at 35%, 29 % Ind. (vs. 39/32/29% in 2008) Defection slightly higher among Dems 7% vs 5% Reps Indep. vote sided strongly with Reps 56% not Dems 37% (vs. 41/52% in ‘08) Women equally split ( 48 D ; 49% R ) (vs. 56, 43% in 2008 ) Whites strongly Rep ( 60% ) not Dem (37%) ( vs. 55, 43% in 2008) Only those with little ( 57% ) or postgrad ed ( 53% ) favored Dems Demographics of National House of Representatives Vote (vs. ‘08 Obama – National Exit Polls

3. National Politics: Exit Poll re: House Vote Demographics of National House of Representatives Vote (vs. ‘08 Obama – National Exit Polls Vote by Age (08/10)Dem ’08Dem ‘10Rep 18-29 18/12 665542 30-44 29/24 524650 45-64 37/43 504553 65 and Older 16/21 453859 Older voters worried about Medicare/Health care reform?

4. National Politics: House Vote Libs and Moderates favored Dems ( 90, 55%) but were too small ( 20, 38% ) a part of electorate vs Cons. (42%) who massively favored Reps ( 84 ) ( 2008: Lib 22; Moderate 44; Cons. 34%) Lost job – no effect (30%)? Yes ( 50 Dem ; 46% Rep ) No ( 45, 54% ) Union member (17%): Yes ( 61 Dem; 37% Rep) No ( 43, 54% ) 2008 Presidential Vote : Obama ( 45% ) 84,14%; McCain ( 45% ) 7,91%, Other (4%) 33, 58% Is vote support for Obama ? Yes ( 23 %) 96 Dem ; 3% Rep; No ( 37 %) 6, 92%, Not factor ( 38 %), 52, 44%

5. National Politics: House Vote How Congress is Handling its Job Democrat Republican Strongly Approve (4%)8216 Somewhat Approve (20%)7820 Somewhat Disapprove (26%)5741 Strongly Disapprove (48%)1977 What is your opinion of… Democrat Republican Democrats - favorable (44%)918 Republicans - favorable (41%)1188 Too many people strongly disapprove of the job Congress is doing… But unfavorable opinions are spread to both Dems and Reps

6. National Politics: House Vote Opinion of Federal Government Democrat Republican Enthusiastic (3%)926 Satisfied (21%)7918 Dissatisfied (48%)4155 Angry (25%)1483 Govt should do more ?DemRep Yes, do more (38%) vs 51% in ’087721 No, do less (56%) vs. 43% in ‘082076 Govt. perceived as over-reaching… With too many dissatisfied with federal govt.

7. National Politics: House Vote How worried about economic conds.?DemRep Very Worried (49%)3068 Somewhat Worried (37%)5243 Not Too Worried (10%) 8118 Reversal of 2008 when those worried lined up behind Dems Economic anxieties favor Reps.. Worried That Economic Crisis Will Hurt Your Family DemRep Very Worried (48%)6236 Somewhat Worried (33%)5247 Not Too Worried (13%)3363 Not Worried At All (5%)4056

8. National Politics: House Vote Stimulus Policy hasDemRep Helped (32%)8613 Hurt (34%)1087 Made No Difference (31%)3957 Stimulus not perceived as having done enough… While blaming Wall Street or Bush just wasn’t enough… Who Do You Blame for Economic Problems? DemRep Wall Street (35%)4157 George W. Bush (29%)8315 Barack Obama (24%)691

9. National Politics: House Vote What Should Congress Do With New Health Care Law? DemRep Expand It (31%)8415 Leave It As Is (16%)6334 Repeal It (48%)1186 And probably viewed as a distraction from the prime concerns of most citizens… Most Important Issue Facing Country Today Democrat Republican Economy (63%)4354 Health Care (18%)5147 Illegal Immigration (8%2668 War in Afghanistan (7%)5840 Health care reform was polarizing and insufficiently popular

10. National Politics: House Vote Bush-Era Tax Cuts Should Be Continued For... DemRep All Americans (40%)1484 Families Under $250,000 (36%)6432 No One (15%)7522 Highest Priority for Next CongressDemRep Cutting Taxes (18%)2671 Reducing Deficit (40%)3265 Spending to Create Jobs (37%)6830 Republicans face contradictory pressures – reduce deficit vs. cutting taxes Now policy direction lacks consensus…and is polarizing

11. National Politics: House Vote U.S. War in AfghanistanDemRep Approve (40%)2475 Disapprove (54%)6136 Should Same-Sex Marriages Be Legally Recognized? DemRep Yes (41%)6730 No (53%)2770 Dems disapprove of war in Afghanistan – losing the base? While same sex marriage still troubled waters for Dems

12. Polling Results for AA County Remarkable stability in right/wrong direction…

13. AA County Polling Results: Most Important Problem Fall '04 to Fall '10

14. AA County Polling Results: Percentage saying “excellent” or “good” also stable since March 2009

15. AA County compared to USA – County looks around 35% better

16. AA County Polling Results: Mostly stable findings in % saying a condition ‘applies’ Some costs have gone down

17. The economy: what else applies? Minor improvement in readiness to spend

18. Statewide Races – AAC Results ‘06/’10 Very little change in Governor or Comptroller outcomes Mikulski improves

19. Gubernatorial Races – Anne Arundel County Anne Arundel Consistently supports Rep. Gubernatorial Candidates O’Malley on low end of typical Dem vote deficit

20. Statewide Races: O’Malley vs. Ehrlich for Governor 2006-2010 Nov. 2006March 2010October 11-14, 2010Oct. 26-27 Nov. 2 Candidate Actual Vote All Categories Exclude some All categories Exclude some Exclude all except voters Exit Poll Actual Vote O’Malley 4235432932424643 Ehrlich 56.947574045595154 Gap 14.91214111319511 Other --3 2 3 Undecided -- 2224-- Neither --5 1 Unsure --10--5 Total 100 99101 100 Polls are in range, but with internal variation

21. State Senate in AAC (Districts 30,31,32,33) Dems experience lower percentages in all districts

22. Delegate Races in Districts 30,31,32,33: Dem-Rep Gap Big Dem loss in 31 33b uncontested 33a only 1 Dem cand. Loses in 32 – what’s the future for Dems there? Race gets very close in 30

23. Senate and Delegate Minimum Winning Totals in Districts 30,31,32,33 Minimum winning voteSeats District SenateDelegates SenateDelegate 302525322535DemD=1/R=2 312572322436RepD=0/R=3 322476218786DemD=3/R=0 33(a)43466 uncontested 18603RepD=0/R=2 33buncontested14623D=0/R=1

24. District 33 – McConkey wins again! Vitale sweeps up Severna Park; McConkey a solid second place. BrennanMcConkeyMc-BrVitale Odenton/Millersville 27.034.4+7.438.3 Severna Park 23.729.7+646.3 Crofton/Crownsville 27.933.2+5.338.6 Overall % 25.732.3+6.641.7 Raw vote1479218603 +381124033

25. District 30 – Dems lose a seat BuschClagettGeorge 200620102010- 2006 200620102010- 2006 200620102010- 2006 Broadneck 15.0715.64+.5714.8813.36-1.52 18.2822.14 +3.86 Annapolis 20.9121.60+.719.8617.76-2.1 13.4416.43 +2.99 South County 15.0614.65-.4117.2714.91-2.36 17.5021.18 +3.68 Totals 17.0618.01+.9516.9715.87-1.116.5519.25+2.65 Busch improves over 2006; Clagett drops across the board; George romps Totals% Ron George 2561019.25 Mike Busch 2396418.01 Herb McMillan 2253516.94 V. Clagett 2111815.87 Seth Howard 2006415.08 Judd Legum 1964714.77

26. County Elections: Slots at Arundel Mills Opponents to the introduction of slot machines at Arundel Mills Mall are circulating a petition to put the county council’s decision to grant zoning needed for slots to referendum in November, potentially reversing the decision. Do you support or oppose this petition effort? PositionMarch ’10 Oct. ‘10 Exit Poll Actual Vote Support45 426055.6 Oppose45 423944.4 Gap0 02111.2 Unsure7 16-- No answer2 --1 Total99100 Will you be voting for or against Question A on the November ballot? A "for" vote would approve the County Council's zoning decision permitting slots in the county, including at Arundel Mills and Laurel. An 'against' vote would leave the county without slots zoning at any location. What happened to shift voter sentiment at last minute?

27. Question A: Election Day vs. Early Voting by Council District Early voted at West County Early voting a good predictor of election day votes

28. 2716 23987 6151 3920 12425 Including Shay - 1930 GAP Only a few thousand votes separate Dem/Rep candidates

29. 2010 County Exec Race Over Time Nov. 2006 June 2010 Online Poll Sept. 2010 Online Poll October 11-14, 2010Oct. 26-27 Nov. 2 Candidate Actual Vote All Categories All categories Exclude some Exclude all except voters Exit Poll Actual Vote Johnson/ Conti 49 30 (Owens) 23 (Conti) 282124373944.0 Leopold 5152/54543438595050.5 Gap 222/3126131422116.5 Other --15/161023-- 5.4 Undecided -- 3235-- Neither --4/792-- 3 Unsure -- 10-- Total101/100101100101100 Unlike Governor’s race, CE race much harder to predict –much tightening at the end…

30. County Executive Vote – Composition of Vote by Party Oct. 11-14 telephone survey 1 st ) vs. exit poll (2 nd ) Conti gains among unaffiliated and Dem voters Leopold taps Reps and crossover Dems Unaffiliated split votes Telephone Poll

31. Vote Composition: Exit Poll Conti lags among Dem voters but gains a bit among unaffiliated

32. Voter Composition continued: Exit Poll Conti lags among Dems, but gains among Reps

33. Vote by Ideology Conti lags among liberals but does a bit better with conservatives

34. County Exec.: How informed were voters? Voters seem informed by election Leopold voters started and remained more informed

35. County executive choice: Whose stands do you favor? Sorted by Undecided/Don’t know (Oct. 11-14) On this issue are you more favorable to Conti, Leopold or Shay? Issue ContiLeopold L-C Shay UndecidedDon’t know enough Undec.+ don’t know enough Allowing slots at Arundel Mills mall 1017 7 12746 73 Improving transportation 1320 7 12145 66 Protecting the needs of vulnerable populations in the county budget 1618 2 12144 65 Maintaining high ethical standards 17 0 32439 63 Improving public schools 1324 11 11943 62 Keeping neighborhoods safe 1324 11 12141 62 Making County government more efficient 122917 22137 58 Preserving the environment 15216 71839 57 Managing growth 132916 21838 56 Having the right experience for the job 113221 1 35 56 Keeping taxes low 143016 11936 55 Encouraging economic development 133118 1 37 55

36. ContiLeopoldL-CShayUndecided Don’t know enough U Undecided/Don’t know enough Having the right experience for the job 1132211 3556 Encouraging economic development1331181 3755 Making County government more efficient 1229172213758 Managing growth1329162183856 Keeping taxes low1430161193655 Improving public schools1324111194362 Keeping neighborhoods safe1324111214162 Allowing slots at Arundel Mills mall101771274673 Improving transportation132071214566 Preserving the environment1521 6 7183957 Protecting the needs of vulnerable populations in the county budget 1618 2 1214465 Maintaining high ethical standards17 0 3243963 County executive choice: Whose stands do you favor? Sorted by those favoring Leopold over Conti (Oct. 11-14)

37. Issue Stands/Traits Most Shaping Choice for County Exec. (Exit Poll) Issue/traitOverallContiLeopoldL-C Balance budget302144 23 Taxes211034 24 Right experience221532 17 Cost of living14723 16 Strong leader161124 13 Economy333143 12 Crime14920 11 Growth/devel.151218 6 Familiar name417 6 Slots10812 4 Constituent serv.9811 3 Environment151711 -6 Schools212619 -7 Honesty13218 -13 Right moral outlook16249 -15 Party affiliation283822 -16 Conti bets on character and party Leopold bets on experience and issues

38. Weathersbee vs. Bateman Council District Weathersbee ‘06 Weathersbee ‘10 Weathersbee ‘10-’06 Bateman ‘10 W-B 1 57.354.3-360.4-6.1 2 55.352.8-2.559.8 -7.0 3 48.843.6-5.255.5 -11.9 4 58.256.4-1.861.9 -5.5 5 49.246.7-2.555.1 -8.4 6 62.058.6-3.461.5 -2.9 7 51.845.7-6.150.7 -5.0 Total 54.751.2-3.5 57.8 (up from 54% in ‘06) -6.7 Weathersbee has large losses in districts 3 and 7 in 2010 and no gains in any district Bateman increases votes from ‘06 and wins majority in all districts in 2010

39. Council Districts Party Registration 36% D, 41%R, 19%U 48%D, 31%R, 18%U 53%D, 29%R, 18%U 49%D, 32%R, 18%U 42%D, 39%R, 19%U 37%D, 44%R, 20%U 47%D, 31%R, 18%U

40. Democratic Candidates by Council District

41. ObamaOMalleyContiDemCCMeanParty RegMean-Reg. CC149.245.847.452.548.751.7-3 CC248.542.846.245.545.748.1-2.4 CC335.730.8354135.641.7-6.1 CC457.151.953.859.555.647.18.5 CC542.837.138.73638.636.62.1 CC65851.748.153.152.746.16.6 CC743.839.839.936.44037.62.4 District 3 underperforms! Districts 4 and 6 overperform

42. Legislative Districts

43. : National Issues: Presidential job approval