1. Elections and Voting
Chapter 13

2. We’ll Cover: Types of Elections, especially primaries
The Electoral College
Patterns in Voter Turn-out
Reasons why people don’t vote

3. Different Kinds of Elections
Primary Elections
Presidential
Tuesday’s Congressional primaries:
Howard Dean on Dems plans:
General Elections
Initiative, Referendum, Recall

4. Presidential Primary Elections
Determine:
Delegates for Presidential Candidates to the national conventions
How many delegates?
Types of primaries:
Proportional Representation (presidential – esp Democrats)
Party Caucus (presidential)
Winner Take All (most other elections, some presidential – esp. Republicans)

6. Washington State Presidential Primaries and Caucuses
We have both
Democrats
Will used only caucus numbers: 97 delegates: 78 pledged, 12 unpledged
Republicans
Some delegates based on caucuses: 18
Some on primaries: 19
Some unpledged: 3

7. Primary Elections Scheduling: Early vs Late
Frontloading more than ever in 2008

8. Figure 13.4- Front-loading

9. Senate, House and most other Primary Elections
Determine:
The party nominee for the general election
Types of primaries:
Mostly: Winner Take All

10. Washington State’s Primaries
Blanket Primary system
Top Two Primary Initiative
Open Primary (aka pick-a-party) 2006
History
Closed Primary: define (we do not have in WA)

11. Electoral College Used for the Presidential General Election
A compromise (Similar to the “Great Compromise”)
Number of Electors per state = Reps in House + Senators
Washington: 9 Reps + 2 Senators = 11 Electoral votes
California 52 Reps + 2 Senators = 54 Electoral votes.

12. Figure 13.5- Electoral College
Back

13. Electoral College
There are a total of 538 electoral votes (535 members of Congress and 3 for the District of Columbia)
Each state’s votes counted separately
Winner takes ALL in each state (by big or small margin) except 2
“Electors” from that state that vote in December
A majority of 270 wins the presidency.

14. What if no candidate gets 270?
12th Amendment:
decision goes to House of Representatives
Each state gets one vote
1824 election:
Other disputed elections

15. Electoral College
A candidate can win a majority of electoral votes with a minority of popular votes and still be elected to the office:
George W. Bush in 2000
Benjamin Harrison in 1888
Rutherford Hayes in 1876
“Faithless” Electors can and do occasionally vote against their state’s wishes,
Rare, especially in recent times
Electors are chosen for party loyalty

16. Presidential Election 2000
Al Gore (D)
50,996,116 votes
48%
21 States Won
266 Electoral Votes
George Bush (R)
50,456,169 votes
48%
30 States Won
271 Electoral Votes

17. Presidential Election 2004
John Kerry (D)
59,028,109 votes
48%
20 States Won
252 Electoral Votes
George Bush (R)
62,040,606 votes
51%
31 States Won
286 Electoral Votes

18. 2008 results
NY Times map:

21. Congressional Districts
Washington State:
First district:
Gerrymandering

22. Figure 13.4

24. Congressional Elections
Incumbancy Advantages
Countervailing Forces
Redistricting
Scandals
Presidential coattails
Midterm elections: mixed
Usually losses for president’s party

25. Table 13.3- Congressional Elections

26. Voting Behavior Voter Participation
~40% of eligible population votes regularly
~ 25% vote occasionally
~ 35% rarely or never vote
Italy, Australia,Sweden: 80% +

27. AV- Turnout of Eligible Voters

28. Figure 13.3- Registered Voters

29. Presidential elections
2000: 51%
2004: 60%
White: slightly over 60%
Black: mid 50%
Hispanics: 38%

30. Who turns out? How do you explain these patterns?
Education: Those with a college education more likely to vote
Income: higher incomes vote more
Age: aged most likely to vote
Fewer than 50% of yr olds are registered
Gender: women and men nearly even
Race: whites tend to vote more
Region: North votes more than South
Interest: politically interested and active, vote

31. Figure 13.2- Why People Don’t Vote

32. Is turnout important?
How can we improve it?
Who would benefit?

33. Patterns in Voting Choice
Voters use:
Retrospective judgment
Prospective judgment
Who benefited from each in the last presidential race?

34. Party identification A citizen’s personal affinity for
And tendency to vote for
Half of states require party declaration when registering to vote
Influences in party ID:
Parents: most important
Also: hot issues, charismatic candidates, class

35. Patterns in Party Choice: D or R?
Geography
Gender
Race and Ethnicity
Age
Social and Economic factors
Religion
Marital Status
Ideology
Education
(Ch 12: ) See charts on p 451-2

36. Patterns in Vote Choice
Party: Democrats largely vote for Democrats.
Ticket-splitting has increased.
Race: minorities largely vote for Democrats.
Gender: women more likely to vote for Democrats.
Income: poor largely vote for Democrats.
Ideology: liberals largely vote for Democrats

37. Independents 2004: 38 % identified selves as Independent
Many of these are “leaning”

38. How do you decide how to vote?
What resources can you use?