1. 2012 Elections In Maryland Dan Nataf, Ph.D. Director, Center for the Study of Local Issues Anne Arundel Community College www2.aacc.edu/csli

2. National Results Popular VoteElectoral College Obama50332 Romney48206

3. National Results 200820122012-2008 Obama % 53 50-3 Popular vote 69,456,897 61,713,086-7,743,811 Electoral College 365 332-33 McCain/Romney%46 48 +2 Popular vote 59,934,814 58,510,150-1,424,664 Electoral College173 206 +33

4. How did the pollsters do? Gallup Tracking Poll – Sept. – Nov. 4 Oct 3 Oct 11 Registered voters – add 3+/- to Romney for likely voters

5. Washington Post/ABC Daily Tracking Poll (Likely voters)

6. Map of Battleground States Nev. Col o. Iowa Wis Ohio Va. NH Fl. NC

7. Battleground Vote Estimates 11-1 Colorado ObamaRomney Votamatic Drew Linzer votamatic.org/ 51 49 Nate Silver fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/a uthor/nate-silver/ 50.148.9 RCP www.realclearpolitics.com/ 48.647.7 Average 49.948.5 Actual results 5147 Florida Votamatic 50 Silver 49.450.1 RCP 47.949.1 Average 49.149.7 Actual results5049 Iowa Votamatic 51.7 48.3 Silver 5148 RCP 48.246.2 Average 50.347.5 Actual results5246 Nevada Votamatic 52 48 Silver 51.347.8 RCP 5047.3 Average 51.147.7 Actual results5246 New Hampshire Votamatic 51.7 48.3 Silver 5148.2 RCP 48.847.5 Average 50.548 Actual results5246 ObamaRomney North Carolina Votamatic 4951 Silver 48.4 51 RCP 4649.8 Average 47.850.6 Actual results 4851 Ohio Votamatic 51.648.4 Silver 50.7 48.1 RCP 48.946.6 Average 50.447.7 Actual results 5048 Virginia Votamatic 51 49 Silver 50.149.2 RCP 47.947.4 Average 49.748.5 Actual results5148 Wisconsin Votamatic 52.447.6 Silver 51.6 47.6 RCP 5045 Average 51.346.7 Actual results5346 Total Votamatic noneNone Silver 50.5 48.6 RCP 47.447.3 Average 4948 5048 Electoral College Votamatic (and actual results) 332206 Silver 300237 RCP 290248 Average 307230

8. Dem Margins: EC vs. PV (1952-2012)

9. Popular Vote: 1952-2012

10. Electoral College Percentages: 1952-2012

11. Exit Poll: Demographics TraitObamaRomney Men (47% ) 4552 Women (53%) 5544 18-29 (19%) 6037 30-44 (27%) 5245 45-64 (38%) 4751 65+ (16%) 4456 Urban (32%) 6236 Suburban (47%) 4850 Rural (21%) 3959 White (72%) 3959 Black (13%) 937 Latino (10%) 7127 Trait ObamaRomney Liberal (25%) 8614 Moderate (41%) 5641 Conservative (35% ) 1782 Republican (32%) 793 Independent (29%) 4550 Democrat (38% ) 928 <$100k (72%) 5444 >$100 (28%) 4454 Protestant (53%) 4257 Catholic (25%) 50 48 None (12%) 70 26 http://reporting.sunlightfoundation.com/2012/return_on_investment/

12. Exit Poll: Issues TraitObamaRomney Abortion legal (59 )6731 Abortion illegal (36 )2277 Health Care (18%)7524 Housing market (8%) 6332 Foreign Policy (5%)5633 Unemployment (38%) 5444 Taxes (14%)3266 Deficit (15%)3266 Economy (59%)4751 Rising Prices (37%)49 Trait ObamaRomney Don’t repeal HC reform (44%) 8713 Repeal (49%)1583 Increase taxes for all (13%) 5244 Increase taxes for rich (47%) 7029 No tax increase (35%) 2375 Most illegal immigrants should be offered legal status (65%) 6137 Deport (28%)2473 More in touch - Obama/Romney (53%)/(43%) 9198

13. National Demographic Lessons Solid Democratic voters: Liberals, African- Americans, Latinos, seculars, single, under 30 Lean Democratic: moderates, 30-44, women, Uncertain: Suburban, Catholics Lean Republican: unaffiliated/indep., white, Protestants, married, males, 45-64, 65+ Solid Republican: Conservatives, rural

14. Senate: Dem WinsRep Wins 238 7 open3 open 3 (or4) party change 1 party change + 2 indep. Maine/Ver mont Margin (%)0-56-1011-1515+ Dem47214 Rep2006 Dems: 55 (with 2 independents) Reps: 45

15. National Results: Election findings Presidential races lean Democratic but without clear hegemony Senate races lean Democratic, but depends on local candidates House – resists Democratic trend due to Republican gerrymandering (based on 2010 state legislative election results) Shifting coalitions – “new emerging Democratic majority” underlies trend Elections close enough – perfect ground game needed to win

16. Maryland: Presidential Results In percent200820122012-2008 Obama61.961.3-.6 McCain/Ro mney 36.536.6+.1 In votes200820122012-2008 Obama1,629,4671,547,359-82108 McCain/Ro mney 959,862923,684-36178

17. Presidential Vote by County, % Supporting

18. CountyObamaRomney Allegany County32 65 Anne Arundel County48 49 Baltimore City 87 11 Baltimore County 57 41 Calvert County45 53 Caroline County37 61 Carroll County32 65 Cecil County39 59 Charles County 65 34 Dorchester County46 53 Frederick County47 51 Garrett County23 75 Harford County39 58 Howard County 59 38 Kent County 49 Montgomery County 71 27 Prince George's County 90 9 Queen Anne's County34 64 St. Mary's County41 57 Somerset County48 51 Talbot County43 56 Washington County40 58 Wicomico County46 52 Worcester County40 58 Presidential Vote by County, 2012

19. Dream Act by County, % Supporting

20. Redistricting by County, % Supporting

21. Same Sex Marriage, % Supporting

22. All Votes by County, % Supporting (ranked by “overall”) Percentages Dream (Q4) Redistricting (Q5)SSM (Q6) Casinos (Q7)ObamaOverall Standard Deviation Majorities in821612611 Garrett County 36462742233510 Carroll County 3746434532416 Allegany County 39 51 34 59 324312 Caroline County 40 59 374637439 Queen Anne's County 40 54 444734447 Washington County 395038 57 40458 Harford County 41 58 444739467 Cecil County 43 65 4443394710 Talbot County 47 56 484243476 Dorchester County 47 62 385046499 Kent County 49 56 494249 5 Anne Arundel County 49 5452 4648 50 3 Worcester County 47 67 42 54 405011 Calvert County 46 62 45 57 45 51 8 Frederick County 49 565152 47 51 3 St. Mary's County 47 64 44 58 41 51 10 Somerset County 5267 34 54 48 51 12 Wicomico County 5171 39 54 46 52 12 Baltimore County 525951 49 5754 4 Howard County 616559 47 5958 6 Charles County 6073 45 616561 10 Montgomery County 7265 557166 7 Baltimore City 707357538768 14 Prince George's County 7578 49 609070 16 Overall 58/4264/3652/48 6351

23. Lessons for State Elections Democratic hegemony remains unchanging Solid Democratic jurisdictions – Montgomery, PG, Charles, Baltimore City Lean Democratic - Howard, Baltimore County Battleground Counties: Anne Arundel, Kent, Somerset, Wicomico, Dorchester

24. Anne Arundel County: Presidential Vote: 2008 vs. 2012 DistrictObama 08 McCain 08 Obama 12 Romney 12 Obama 12-08 McCain- Romney 15147.751.645.4+.6-2.3 249.949.4 47.1-.5-2.3 336.563.53562-1.5 458.540.956.740.6-1.8-.3 543.355.940.756.6-2.6+.7 657.841.653.344.3-4.5+2.7 74455.541.755.9-2.3+.4 Absentee/Early / Provisional 5247.358.440.3+6.4-7 Total48.25048.349.2+.1-.8 Libertarian: ‘08 =.5 ‘12 = 1.4 Green: ’08 =.7 ‘12 =.7 Total: 1.2/2.1

25. Anne Arundel County: Presidential Vote: 2008 vs. 2012

26. AA County: Early Vote - 2012 ObamaRomney Early Vote Center Election Day Early/Provsional/ Absentee Obama Early-Election Day Obama Early – Romney Early 1 51.670.927.7 19.343.2 2 49.460.937.8 11.523.1 3 3545.253.3 10.2-8.1 4 56.766.532 9.834.5 5 40.745.753.1 5-7.4 Overall 48.349.2 -.9

27. AA County Lessons County has purple qualities – support some Democratic initiatives (SSM, redistricting) but less so others (Dream, Casinos) Maximum turnout election still results in Democratic electoral minority for top of ticket Local Democratic candidates still need to be cautious about distancing themselves from national and statewide candidates Council districts seem evenly split: Dem: 1, 4, 6; Rep: 3,5, 7. Battleground district is 2

28. AAC: Obama Vote by Demographics

29. Dream Act by Demographic Variables

30. Same Sex Marriage by Demographics

31. Dream Act by Demographic Variables

32. AAC: Demographic Lessons Solid Democratic voters: Liberals, Blacks (except SSM), Jews, $0-50k, seculars, single, under 30 Lean Democratic: moderates, 31-40, women, $150-250k Uncertain: some college, BA, PostGrad work, 61- 70 Lean Republican: unaffiliated, HS Diploma, $50- 150k, >$250k, white, Protestants, Catholic, married, males, 41-60, 71+ Solid Republican: Conservatives, 2 year degree, Other Christians, White Evangelicals