1. Congressional Elections
November 2, 2017

2. Congress is Really unpopular

3. People say that most members of Congress deserve defeat
Throw the bums out!

4. But not my congressman
People like their own representative better than most members of Congress, but the “like” percentage is dropping. Will that impact 2014 election results?

5. Incumbents usually win
The overwhelming majority of House incumbents seeking reelection win. In 2016, for example, the reelection rate for House incumbents was 97 percent.

6. Incumbency advantages
Incumbents are better known than most challengers
Incumbents can usually raise more money than their opponents.
* Incumbents have money for trips home
* Incumbents have staff to generate press releases
* Incumbents can take credit for bringing spending projects to the district

7. House races are local races
House incumbents benefit from the tendency of voters to regard House races as local contests. House members running for reelection stress personal qualities and the services they provide their districts. Even though polls show that a majority of Americans often disapprove of the job that Congress as a whole is doing, many incumbent members of Congress enjoy strong approval ratings in their districts.
Who is this?
U.S. Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee

8. Safe districts and Swing Districts
Most districts are safe for one party on the other because of districting or because of residential patterns. Relatively few districts can be described as swing districts. A swing district can potentially be won by either political party.

9. Safe Districts
Most congressional districts are safe for one party or the other. Consider the 18th congressional district in Texas, which is represented by Sheila Jackson Lee. Representative Lee was reelected in 2016 with 74 percent of the vote. The 18th is a safe Democratic district.

10. The cartoon refers to the 2010 midterm election, a Republican sweep.
Midterm elections
Historically, the political party holding the White House loses seats in the House of Representatives in midterm elections. On average, the president’s party loses 30 House seats in the midterm. In 2010, Democrats lost 63 seats, the most since 1938.
Democrats.
Which party would you expect to gain seats in the House in 2016 and why?
The cartoon refers to the 2010 midterm election, a Republican sweep.

11. Just say no
Many voters participating in the election wanted to send a message to President Obama and for most of them the message was negative. Only a fourth told polltakers that they were voting to support the president compared with 37 percent who said they were voting to oppose him.

12. Senate elections are more competitive
Senate constituencies are more diverse than House districts
Incumbent senators typically face stronger challengers than House members
Research has found that voters tend to perceive Senate races as national election contests.

13. What You Have Learned
* Why are incumbent members of Congress running for reelection usually successful? * Are most congressional districts competitive between the parties or safe for one party or the other? * Why does the president’s party usually lose seats in a midterm election? * How are Senate elections different from House elections?