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From Change to Change: Obama and the Tea Party in 2010 Presented by Terry Nelson November 30, 2010 International Democrat Union.

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Presentation on theme: "From Change to Change: Obama and the Tea Party in 2010 Presented by Terry Nelson November 30, 2010 International Democrat Union."— Presentation transcript:

1 From Change to Change: Obama and the Tea Party in 2010 Presented by Terry Nelson November 30, 2010 International Democrat Union

2 2010 Election Environment

3 2008 Map v. 2010 Map 2008 2010

4 4 GOP Routs Democrats 4 GOP gained more US House seats than any election since 1938 Democrats at lowest number of seats since 1946 GOP gains 7 Senate seats for the cycle GOP gains at least 680 seats in state legislatures, a record for any party. GOP controls both chambers in 26 states.

5 5 2010 In Summary 5 Negative Economic Sentiment created a difficult environment for Democrats Economic mood created highest wrong track in last five mid-term elections The election was nationalized around Obama Since 1994, highest percentage of voters casting vote against President (40%) Independents moved strongly to GOP GOP dominated important issues

6 A Return to High Negative Sentiment *based on Gallup Polling

7 Obama Job Approval Erosion *based on Gallup Polling

8 Party Image Is Negative for Parties *based on Gallup Polling

9 Republicans dominated the Issues Congressional ballot by respondent’s top TWO most important vote issues. Faith and Freedom Coalition National Survey, November 2, 2010

10 Conservatives largest voting group in 2010

11 Voters Opposed Obama Faith and Freedom Coalition National Survey, November 2, 2010

12 Independents = Check Obama/Not Pro-GOP Resurgent Republic/Democracy Corps, 2010 Post Election Survey, November 2-3, 2010

13 Voters want to repeal/replace Obama-care Resurgent Republic/Democracy Corps, 2010 Post Election Survey, November 2-3, 2010

14 A plurality of voters oppose Obama-care Resurgent Republic/Democracy Corps, 2010 Post Election Survey, November 2-3, 2010

15 Election was a Referendum on Democratic Governance Resurgent Republic/Democracy Corps, 2010 Post Election Survey, November 2-3, 2010

16 Independent Voters Drove GOP Victory – 26% Swing SOURCE: Exit Polls

17 TEA PARTY The Tea Party’s Impact on the 2010 Elections

18 Partisan/Ideological Makeup of Tea Party Supporters Based on Gallup surveys conducted March 26-28, May 24-25, and June 11-13, 2010

19 Tea Party Demography USA Today/Gallup March 26-28, 2010

20 Tea Party Demography USA Today/Gallup March 26-28, 2010

21 Tea Party Voters Overwhelmingly Backed GOP Candidates Faith and Freedom Coalition National Survey, November 2, 2010 +86%

22 Tea Partiers Sent a Message Opposing Obama A message SUPPORTING President Obama and his policies and programs. Not a message either way about President Obama or his policies and programs. “Would you say your vote for U.S. Congress in this year’s election was a vote to send…” Faith and Freedom Coalition National Survey, November 2, 2010

23 Your Relationship to Tea Party Movement *based on Gallup Polling

24 Christian Conservatives vs. Tea Partiers on Issues Resurgent Republic/Democracy Corps, 2010 Post Election Survey, November 2-3, 2010

25 2012 Election Environment

26 Approval Rating of Presidents in November of 2 nd Year Based on Gallup Polling, Presidential Approval Ratings.

27 Obama loses to Generic Republican Resurgent Republic/Democracy Corps, 2010 Post Election Survey, November 2-3, 2010

28 Party Impression *based on Gallup Polling

29 Better than 2:1 say Obama should find Common Ground with GOP Resurgent Republic/Democracy Corps, 2010 Post Election Survey, November 2-3, 2010

30 Majority Support of Parties to Move to Center Views Among Democratic Voters 1 st Statement: In order to win in the future the Republican Party/Democratic Party must move more to the center in order to win over independent voters. 2 nd Statement: In order to win in the future the Republican Party/Democratic Party needs to be more supportive of it’s core principles. Resurgent Republic/Democracy Corps, 2010 Post Election Survey, November 2-3, 2010

31 Country Split on Role of Government, But Independents are Not Resurgent Republic/Democracy Corps, 2010 Post Election Survey, November 2-3, 2010

32 Economic Confidence *based on Gallup Polling

33 Americans Interested in Third Party In your view, do Republican and Democratic Parties do an adequate job of Representing the American people o, or do they do such a poor job that a third major party is needed?

34 Since ’80, ‘satisfaction’ at least 39% Since ’56, job approval 53%+ = win, 46% or below=loss No significant nomination opponent No significant 3rd party candidate Keys to the Presidency

35 “When you get into a presidential electorate, it decidedly favors Democrats, and every year it’s going to decidedly favor them more and more. Demographics don’t do anything but get better for Democrats. Every election becomes less white.” James Carville, Politico, 11/18/10 Demographics vs. Electoral Votes 2012 Different than 2010

36 Will Obama Change Course? Economic Reaction vs. Ideological Reaction Will Obama and Republicans Work Together? Conventional Wisdom Constructive Engagement Framing GOP Presidential Primary Establishment vs. Anti-Establishment Ideological positioning Tea Party Impact The Economy is the most important predictor of Obama’s re-election Will Tea Party Continue to Support GOP Earmark Reform Debt Ceiling How will Obama address his liberal base? Senate Favors GOP gains House: Redistricting Year 2012: What to Watch

37

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