Dr. Eng. Sudarmanto Budi Nugroho Translating Policy Research into Concrete Projects on Environmentally Sustainable Transport in Semarang City Workshop “Pengembangan Transportasi Public Rendah Emisi Karbon di Kota Semarang” , 9 January 2019 Dr. Eng. Sudarmanto Budi Nugroho Institute for Global Environmental Strategies-Japan

Outline IGES activities in Semarang City Policy Research and Practical Actions on Sustainable Transport Way Forward

Letter of Intent to Collaborate between IGES & Semarang City was signed on May 24th, 2016

Collaboration between IGES and Diponegoro University

IGES’s Activities in Semarang City Since 2016 Demand Side Supply Side IGES’s Activities in Semarang City Since 2016 Low Carbon City Scenario (AIM LCS Study) Co-Benefit Study on Transport Sector : BRT Macro/City Level (Multi sectors) Sectoral Level 1. Green Industry 2. Smart Building 3. Smart Device 4. Sustainable Transport (a). Energy Efficient vehicle & (b) Modal Shift 5. Green Energy Deployment of renewable Energy Implementation at Project Level Development of Low Carbon Infrastructure Through JCM FS Study Change the Behaviour Infrastructure Soft Measures Conversion of CNG Bus Mini Hydro Solar PV Awareness Raising to use BRT for Junior High School Students

Policy Research on Low Carbon City Scenarios (LCS): Baseline Data in 2015: Estimation of total CO2 emission: 5,282 ktCO2e or 3.3tCO2e/person The industry sector is the largest emitter Transport Sector is the second largest emitter. Sector Final Energy Consumption (ktoe) Total CO2 Emission (ktCO2e) Industry 731,6 2.524,5 Commercial 71,7 571,0 Residential 392,2 748,0 Passenger transport 457,7 1.350,7 Freight transport 29,6 87,3 Total 1.682,8 5.281,5 Source: AIM LCS Brochure

Future Energy Demand (ktoe) Future Development of City (2030): Population will increase 1.29 times & number of household increase 1.46 times Macro Economic Situation will increase 6 times compare to 2015 Future GRDP will still be dominated by Secondary Sector. Future Energy Demand (ktoe) Sector 2015 2030BaU 2030CM BaU/2015 CM/BaU Industry 731,6 4.139,9 3.483,6 5,66 0,84 Commercial 71,7 507,6 442,5 7,08 0,87 Residential 392,2 615,8 605,1 1,57 0,98 Passenger transport 457,7 709,2 421,0 1,55 0,59 Freight transport 29,6 177,2 138,8 5,99 0,78 Total 1.682,8 6.149,6 5.091,0 3,65 0,83 Source: AIM LCS Brochure In case of Business as Usual (BAU) total CO2 emission will increase more than 3 times in 2030

Low Carbon Society Scenario for Semarang City To Reduce CO2 Emission, Semarang City needs Counter Measures (CM) scenarios There are five LCS actions and projects could be Promoted by Semarang City which will reduce emission per capita from 10.9 tCO2e (BAU-2030) to 7.8 tCO2e (or around 28.44%) The action on “Sustainable Transport” by promoting energy efficient vehicles and modal shift could reduce 950 ktCO2e   Industry Commercial Residential Passenger Transport Freight Transport Total Action 1: Green Industry - Promotion of energy efficient equipment & fuel shift 2.552 Action 2: Smart Building - Diffusion of low-energy building (Materials, fuel shift) 215 33 248 Action 3: Smart Device - Promotion of energy efficient device/appliance 357 77 434 Action 4: Sustainable Transport - Energy efficient vehicle and modal shift 837 113 950 Action 5: Green Energy - deployment of renewable electricity 26 10 36 598 120 4.220 Source: AIM LCS Brochure

Emission reduction (ktCO2e) Low Carbon Society Scenario on Transport Sector Promoting energy-efficient vehicles (car, motorbikes and trucks) give largest reduction due to intensive use of those modes. Expansion of Frequencies and Routes of public transport (BRT) and development of public transport will also give substantial reduction of CO2 emission. Eco Driving and Fuel Switch will also reduce emission, but only small reduction No　 Project Emission reduction (ktCO2e) 1 Promotion of eco-driving with digital tachographs 7.2 2 Wide-range traffic control 28.8 3 Expansion of frequencies and routes of bus and BRT 96.2 4 Development of public transportation like railway and MRT 98.6 5 Shift to CNG bus 6.1 6 Introduction of electric motorbikes 61.5 7 Promotion of energy-efficient vehicles (cars for passenger) 452.3 8 Promotion of energy-efficient vehicles (motorbikes) 86.7 9 Promotion of energy-efficient vehicles (trucks) 112.8 Total 950.1 Source: AIM LCS Brochure

Co-Benefit Study on Transport in Semarang City 2016 2017 Co-Benefit Study on Transport in Semarang City Step 1: Emission Inventory Tools: IVE Collaborative partner: Diponegoro University ; Asian Institute of Technology Step 2: Prioritizing Priority Actions Tools: AHP Diponegoro University & Local Experts (44 People) Step 3: Quantifying impact of Priority Policies Step 4: Consensus Building Tools: Stakeholder Dialogue Diponegoro University Semarang Improvement of BRT System Awareness Campaign to Promote the modal shift from Motorcycle to BRT among High School Students Semarang

1. Identify Problem : Barrier to Use Public Transport & Non-Motorize Transport (based on interview survey to 671 private vehicle users and 44 experts in 2016)

1. Identify Problem : - Modal Shift to Private Vehicles Based on Interview to 671 private vehicle users in 2016 About 37.4% of private vehicles users use public transport in the past They started to shift to Private Vehicles (especially motorcycle) at 21.04 years old  affordable to own motorcycle Reason Percentage (N=671) Travel Time 24.9% Flexibility 21.0% Comfortable 14.5% Cost 11.3% Have access to private vehicles 16.1% Traffic Safety 1.7% Travel Security 0.2% Others 10.3% 39% of Private Vehicle users had experiences to use Trans Semarang

Identify Problem : Modal Shift of Public Transport in Semarang City Based on Interview to 300 Angkot User and 300 user of Trans Semarang in 2017 Angkot MC BRT Bus Walk 86 76 52 66 32 79 25 19 Pick-up/ Drop Off Ojek 21 56 39 15 14 Cycling Becak 72 30 13 Modal shift from previous modes to current modes Alternative modes if current modes is not available

2. Prioritizing Actions a. Baseline Emission from Road Transport in 2015 (estimation by IVE Model)

2. Prioritizing Actions a. Prioritizing Actions to Improve BRT based on experts opinion

3. Quantifying the Impacts a. Modal Shifts (from Corridors 5,6,7,8)  emission reduction 3-14 % b. Eco Driving of existing Trans Semarang  0.13-0.78 % of total emission from Bus c. Low Emission buses for Trans Semarang  0.5 - 1 % of total emission from Bus

4. Practical Actions : Change People Behaviour Awareness Raising Campaign on Road Safety and promoting to use Trans Semarang for Junior High School students in SMP 1; SMP 7 and SMP 31 in 2017 a. Materials for Campaign b. Onsite Program on Awareness Raising c. Monitoring the impacts – Post Training Program Modal Shift – Behaviour Intention Knowledge about Trans Semarang

4. Practical Actions : Introduction of Low Carbon Technology Feasibility Study of CNG Bus for Trans Semarang under Joint Crediting Mechanism Program under the city to city cooperation between Toyama and Semarang The government of Indonesian is actively promote the “oil-to-gas program” for public transport sector There are several merits : cost efficiency and improvement of fuel efficiency of Engine and reduce emissions. Diesel CNG CNG with JCM Distance Year Conversion cost

Conclusions Transformative Process from policy oriented research activities to practical actions and project developments on Transport Sector brought multiple benefits to the City The evidence based and science based policy process should be applied and it will be more feasible and possible by cooperation between city government and local organization, university/research Institutes and also international organizations. The case on transport sector, especially in case of Trans Semarang, could be expanded to other issues on transport such as: promoting non-motorized transport (NMT) and other policies. It also could be promoted to other sectors in order to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) target of Semarang city

Example reference to other cities (NMT) Pedestrian Improvement Program and its impact on willingness to increase walking distance in Bandung City and Bogor City

Thank you for your attention nugroho@iges.or.jp http://www.iges.or.jp/