2. Committee on Climate Change
Adrian Gault
Chief Economist,
Committee on Climate Change

3. The climate change challenge for freight

4. Meeting Carbon Budgets: the climate change challenge for freight
Adrian Gault, Chief Economist
13 May 2015

5. Structure of Presentation
The Climate Change Act
Performance against existing targets
The challenge for transport and freight
Next steps

6. The Climate Change Act The Climate Change Act 2008
A statutory 2050 target for emissions reduction
Legally-binding 5-year ‘carbon budgets’
Requirement to develop policies and proposals to meet budgets
Establishes the CCC as independent advisor
The Committee on Climate Change
How fast? Level of 2050 target and carbon budgets
How? Sectoral contributions, technologies and policy options
Progress? Monitoring: are we on track to meet budgets? Annual progress report to Parliament
Who? Advice for UK as well as specific consideration of Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland – including reporting to their governments and carrying out work specific to them
Adaptation Sub-Committee
Process: Committee of eminent economists and scientists weighs the evidence

7. Structure of Presentation
The Climate Change Act
Performance against existing targets
The challenge for transport and freight
Next steps

8. The 2050 Challenge 628 MtCO2e International aviation & shipping*
UK non-CO2 GHGs
Other CO2
Industry (heat & industrial processes)
Residential & Commercial heat
Domestic transport
Electricity Generation
* bunker fuels basis
75% cut
(= 80% vs. 1990)
160 MtCO2e
2010 emissions
2050 objective

9. Cost effective path to 2027 has been agreed in line with 2050 target
(includes aviation and shipping)
Greenhouse gas emissions

10. Further action likely to be needed to meet 4th Carbon budget, and 2050 target
Today
4th carbon budget
Climate Change Act:
“It is the duty of the Secretary of State to ensure that the net UK carbon account for the year 2050 is at least 80% lower than then 1990 baseline.”
Note: figure is non-traded sector only, statutory duty covers trade and non-traded. DEC central scenario based on CCC modelling of DECC evidence, uncertainty around CCC scenario based on DECC uncertainty analysis.

11. Structure of Presentation
The Climate Change Act
Performance against existing targets
The challenge for transport and freight
Next steps

12. 4th Carbon Budget scenario for the transport sector
Central scenario in 2030
Cars
New car efficiency = 80gCO2/km.
EVs = 60% of new cars (c.30% of stock).
Smarter Choices reduce car km by 5%.
Vans
New van efficiency = 120gCO2/km.
EVs = 60% of new vans (c.25% of stock).
HGVs
New HGV efficiency improvement of c.30%.
Improved logistics and eco-driving to reduce fuel consumption.
Buses
Conventional new bus efficiency improvement of c.25%.
Hydrogen = 50% of new buses in 2030.
Bio-fuels
Limited use of sustainable biofuels – c.8% in 2020.

13. Freight demand-side measures in the 4th Carbon Budget
By 2030, a 6.5% reduction in vehicle-kms from:
More efficient routing / use of consolidation and distribution centres.
Better vehicle utilisation / improved lading / reduction of empty running.
Double-deck / high cube trailers.
Off-peak travel to avoid congestion.
A shift to less carbon-intensive travel modes such as rail.
Also a fuel saving of 4% due to eco-driving.
We have commissioned a new research project with Centre for Sustainable Road Freight to improve the evidence base in this area and make policy recommendations.

14. CfSRF project methodology
Department for Transport Road Freight Statistics used to establish a baseline:
Mix of vehicle types and sectors
Kilometres travelled
Industry consultation, workshops and literature review to establish uptake of efficiency measures:
Vehicle fuel efficiency
Current uptake of measures (logistics measures and technology solutions)
Future potential uptake of measures
Future emissions reduction modelled by considering:
Commercial decision making and payback period (capital costs vs fuel savings)
Low, medium and high uptake scenarios
Non-financial barriers to uptake within the sector

15. Emerging recommendations – Key themes
The project is ongoing and recommendations are yet to be finalised, but a few key themes have emerged:
Data: Improving the availability of logistics relevant data should help to facilitate collaboration and improved planning
Competition law: It would be helpful to clarify permissible forms of collaboration in the context of competition law
Longer, heavier vehicles: Use of longer, heavier vehicles would help to reduce emissions but concerns over safety need to be fully addressed
Land use: Land use planning policy should have some consideration of the benefits of urban consolidation centres
This list is not exhaustive and specific recommendations have not been finalised.

16. Structure of Presentation
The Climate Change Act
Performance against existing targets
The challenge for transport and freight
Next steps

17. Key statutory reports from the Committee in 2015
Statutory Progress to Parliament (end June):
progress made to meet the existing carbon budgets and the target
what further progress is needed
Fifth Carbon Budget advice (by end December):
Recommended level of 5th carbon budget ( )
Extensive engagement and analysis ongoing: direct links into industry, workshops (business, science, power, scenarios), call for evidence, commissioned research, peer review, engagement with Departments
Publications in Autumn leading up to final advice
June 2016: deadline for legislation on 5th Carbon budget

18. Logistics Carbon Reduction Conference 2015