1. Two Different Approaches to Deep Decarbonisation Subash Dhar Priyadarshi R Shukla Minal Pathak Towards an equitable low carbon development: a science policy dialog for COP21 June 15-16, 2015; Paris 1

2. Key Challenges for Energy Sector  Energy Security (Risk)  Energy Access (SE4ALL)  Environmental Pollution (SDG)  High CO 2 Intensity of energy  Common goal : – To achieve SDG targets – To achieve a 2 deg C vision 2

3. Two Alternative Paradigms 3

4. Macroeconomic Drivers 2010 Conventional 2030 Sustainable 2030 Conventional 2050 Sustainable 2050 Population (million)1206 1476 1434 16201509 Urbansiation30.9%39.5%40.7%50.3%54.0% Households247 365 356 502473 GDP (Billion US $)1397 6489 6002 2566423007 GDP per capita (US $) 1158 4397 4186 15842 15247 4

5. Demand : Industry 5

6. Demand: Passenger Transport 6

7. Supply Side - Electricity 7 20102020203020402050 Conventional0.770.640.310.120.06 Sustainable0.770.550.250.100.05 CO 2 Intensity of Electricity Generation (Kg CO 2 /KWH) 20302050 ConventionalSustainableConventionalSustainable Power Generation6.77.5473.6409.5 Carbon sequestered by CCS (Million Ton CO 2 )

8. Primary Energy & CO2 Emissions 2010 2030 Con. 2030 Sus. 2050 Con. 2050 Sus. Total CO 2 (Million Tons) 14972810213831572108 Primary Energy Supply (EJ) 25.95445 101.1 69.4 Energy Intensity (TJ/M$) 136.55.93.12.5 CO 2 intensity (tCO2/TJ) 82.7 66.760.139.9 36.1 CO 2 per capita (tCO 2 /capita) 1.241.91.491.951.4 8

9. Co-Benefits: Air Pollution 9 Source: http://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/india-s- cities-more-polluted-than-china-but-there-is-still-hope/article1- 1355013.aspx http://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/india-s- cities-more-polluted-than-china-but-there-is-still-hope/article1- 1355013.aspx

10. Co-benefits: Social Value of Carbon 2020203020402050 CO 2 saved (Million tCO2)370.6671.8918.91049.4 Revenue from CO 2 saved (Bn US $ 2010) 16.645.182.3152.9 Revenue as % of GDP0.6%0.8% 0.7% 10 Revenues from carbon saved in Sustainable Scenario Value Carbon

11. Investments in Electricity Generation 11

12. Conclusions  Both pathways have a positive impact on SDG's though a sustainable pathways ranks higher  Renewables will be a major part of electricity cleaning in both pathways  Implementation will require substantial financing and transformational changes in energy supply  Social value of carbon is significantly lower as compared to a global carbon price 12

13. Acknowledgements Deep Decarbonisation Project 13