2013/14 Crop Market Outlook Coleman Research Group Presentation Sept. 4, 2013 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911 1 1
U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Area Planted (mil. acres) 86.4 88.2 91.9 97.2 97.4 Yield (bu./acre) 164.7 152.8 147.2 123.4 154.4 Production (mil. bu.) 13,092 12,447 12,360 10,780 13,763 Beg. Stocks 1,673 1,708 1,128 989 719 Imports 8 28 29 165 30 Total Supply 14,774 14,182 13,517 11,934 14,512 Feed & Residual 5,125 4,795 4,546 4,450 5,100 Ethanol 4,591 5,019 5,011 4,650 4,900 Food, Seed, & Other 1,370 1,407 1,428 1,400 1,450 Exports 1,980 1,834 1,543 715 1,225 Total Use 13,066 13,055 12,528 11,215 12,675 Ending Stocks 1,837 Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 3.55 5.18 6.22 6.95 4.90 Source: USDA-WAOB 2 2
U.S. Soybean Supply and Use 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Area Planted (mil. acres) 77.5 77.4 75.0 77.2 Yield (bu./acre) 44.0 43.5 41.9 39.6 42.6 Production (mil. bu.) 3,359 3,329 3,094 3,015 3,255 Beg. Stocks 138 151 215 169 125 Imports 15 14 16 35 Total Supply 3,512 3,495 3,325 3,219 3,396 Crush 1,752 1,648 1,703 1,685 1,675 Seed & Residual 110 130 88 95 116 Exports 1,499 1,501 1,365 1,315 1,385 Total Use 3,361 3,280 3,155 3,176 Ending Stocks 220 Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 9.59 11.30 12.50 14.40 11.35 Source: USDA-WAOB 3 3
U.S. Wheat Supply and Use 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Area Planted (mil. acres) 59.2 53.6 54.4 55.7 56.5 Yield (bu./acre) 44.5 46.3 43.7 46.2 Production (mil. bu.) 2,218 2,207 1,999 2,269 2,114 Beg. Stocks 657 976 862 743 718 Imports 119 97 112 123 130 Total Supply 2,993 3,279 2,974 3,134 2,962 Food 919 926 941 945 958 Seed 69 71 76 73 Feed & Residual 150 132 162 390 280 Exports 879 1,289 1,051 1,007 1,100 Total Use 2,018 2,417 2,231 2,416 2,411 Ending Stocks 551 Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 4.87 5.70 7.24 7.77 7.00 Source: USDA-WAOB 4 4
Corn Crop Rating
Objective Yield Data Source: USDA-NASS
Projected Corn Yields Top: 2013 Projected Yield Bottom: Change from 2012 Units: Bushels/acre Source: USDA-NASS
Soybean Crop Rating
Projected Soybean Yields Top: 2013 Projected Yield Bottom: Change from 2012 Units: Bushels/acre Source: USDA-NASS
Projected Winter Wheat Yields Top: 2013 Projected Yield Bottom: Change from last month Units: Bushels/acre Source: USDA-NASS
Projected Spring Wheat Yields Top: 2013 Projected Yield Bottom: Change from last month Units: Bushels/acre Source: USDA-NASS
National Wheat Projections
World Corn Production Source: USDA-WAOB 13 13
World Soybean Production Source: USDA-WAOB 14 14
World Wheat Production Source: USDA-WAOB 15 15
Hog Crush Margin The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs. Carcass weight: 200 pounds Pig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futures Corn: 10 bushels per pig Soybean meal: 150 pounds per pig Source: ISU Extension
Cattle Crush Margin The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs. Live weight: 1250 pounds Feeder weight: 750 pounds Corn: 50 bushels per head Source: ISU Extension
U.S. Meat Production & Prices Source: USDA-WAOB 18 18
Corn Advance Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS
Corn Advance Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS
Soybean Advance Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS
Soybean Advance Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS
Wheat Export Pace Source: USDA-FAS
Wheat Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS
Corn Grind for Ethanol
Current Corn Futures 4.73 4.67 4.47 Source: CME Group, 9/3/2013
Current Soybean Futures 12.96 11.43 10.83 Source: CME Group, 9/3/2013
Current Wheat Futures 6.74 6.58 6.59 Source: CME Group, 9/3/2013
3 Month Outlook - Temps
3 Month Outlook - Precip
Crop Acreage Source: USDA-NASS
Crop Shifts Source: USDA-NASS
Thoughts for 2013 and Beyond Supply/demand concerns Lack of moisture before harvest, possibility of too much during harvest Export strength/weakness, China’s moves in the corn & wheat markets 2012/13 USDA 2013/14 Futures (9/3/13) Corn $6.95 $4.90 $4.47 Soybeans $14.40 $11.35 $12.96 Wheat $7.77 $7.00 $6.74
Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www. econ Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: http://www.econ.iastate.edu/~chart/ Iowa Farm Outlook: http://www.econ.iastate.edu/ifo/ Ag Decision Maker: http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/