1. 2013 Crop Market Outlook OK State Extension Webcast Apr. 15, 2013
Chad Hart
Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist 1 1

2. U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Area Planted
(mil. acres)
86.4
88.2
91.9
97.2
97.3
Yield
(bu./acre)
164.7
152.8
147.2
123.4
163.6
Production
(mil. bu.)
13,092
12,447
12,360
10,780
14,642
Beg. Stocks
1,673
1,708
1,128
989
757
Imports 8 28 29
125 25
Total Supply
14,774
14,182
13,516
11,894
15,424
Feed & Residual
5,125
4,795
4,545
4,400
5,400
Ethanol
4,591
5,019
5,011
4,550
4,675
Food, Seed, & Other
1,370
1,407
1,428
1,387
1,435
Exports
1,980
1,834
1,543
800
1,500
Total Use
13,066
13,055
12,527
11,137
13,010
Ending Stocks
2,414
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
3.55
5.18
6.22
6.90
4.80
Source: USDA-WAOB, for 2 2

3. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Area Planted
(mil. acres)
77.5
77.4
75.0
77.2
77.1
Yield
(bu./acre)
44.0
43.5
41.9
39.6
44.5
Production
(mil. bu.)
3,359
3,329
3,094
3,015
3,387
Beg. Stocks
138
151
215
169
125
Imports 15 14 16 20
Total Supply
3,512
3,495
3,325
3,204
3,527
Crush
1,752
1,648
1,703
1,635
1,660
Seed & Residual
110
130 90 95
135
Exports
1,499
1,501
1,362
1,350
1,500
Total Use
3,361
3,280
3,155
3,080
3,295
Ending Stocks
232
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
9.59
11.30
12.50
14.30
10.50
Source: USDA-WAOB, for 3 3

4. Trade Expectations = 5 billion bushels
March 1 Corn Stocks
Trade Expectations = 5 billion bushels

5. Trade Expectations = 935 million bushels
March 1 Soy Stocks
Trade Expectations = 935 million bushels

6. Corn Intended Acreage Top: 2013 intended acres
Bottom: Change from 2012
Units: 1,000 acres

7. Soybean Intended Acreage
Top: 2013 intended acres
Bottom: Change from 2012
Units: 1,000 acres

8. Total Intended Acreage
Top: 2013 intended acres
Bottom: Change from 2012
Units: 1,000 acres

9. World Corn Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 9 9

10. World Soybean Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 10 10

11. Hog Crush Margin
The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs.
Carcass weight: 200 pounds Pig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futures
Corn: 10 bushels per pig Soybean meal: 150 pounds per pig
Source: ISU Extension

12. Cattle Crush Margin
The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs.
Live weight: pounds Feeder weight: 750 pounds
Corn: 50 bushels per head
Source: ISU Extension

13. U.S. Meat Production & Prices
Source: USDA-WAOB 13 13

14. Corn Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

15. Soy Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

16. Advance Corn Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

17. Advance Soybean Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

18. Corn Grind for Ethanol

19. Ethanol Stocks

20. Current Corn Futures
5.11
5.08
Source: CME Group, 4/11/2013

21. Current Soybean Futures
11.67
11.57
Source: CME Group, 4/11/2013

22. Corn Prices vs. Costs

23. Soy Prices vs. Costs

25. 3 Month Outlook - Precip

26. 3 Month Outlook - Temps

27. Thoughts for 2013 and Beyond
Supply/demand concerns
Soil moisture issues
Wetter, but warmer, spring
Corn demand has yet to rebound (but ethanol is starting to)
Worldwide response to drought-induced pricing
2012/13
USDA
2013/14
Futures
(4/11/13)
Corn
$6.90
$5.11
Soybeans
$14.30
$11.67

28. Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www. econ
Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: Iowa Farm Outlook: Ag Decision Maker: