Associate Professor/Crop Marketing Specialist Ag Outlook Nov. 2, 2017 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Crop Marketing Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911 1 1

U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Area Planted (mil. acres) 95.4 90.6 88.0 94.0 90.4 Yield (bu./acre) 158.1 171.0 168.4 174.6 171.8 Production (mil. bu.) 13,829 14,216 13,602 15,148 14,280 Beg. Stocks 821 1,232 1,731 1,737 2,295 Imports 36 32 67 57 50 Total Supply 14,686 15,479 15,401 16,942 16,625 Feed & Residual 5,040 5,280 5,120 5,464 5,500 Ethanol 5,124 5,200 5,224 5,438 5,475 Food, Seed, & Other 1,369 1,401 1,422 1,452 1,460 Exports 1,920 1,867 1,898 2,293 1,850 Total Use 13,454 13,748 13,664 14,647 14,285 Ending Stocks 2,340 Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 4.46 3.70 3.61 3.36 3.20 Source: USDA-WAOB 2 2

U.S. Soybean Supply and Use 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Area Planted (mil. acres) 76.8 83.3 82.7 83.4 90.2 Yield (bu./acre) 44.0 47.5 48.0 52.0 49.5 Production (mil. bu.) 3,358 3,927 3,926 4,296 4,431 Beg. Stocks 141 92 191 197 301 Imports 72 33 24 22 25 Total Supply 3,570 4,052 4,140 4,515 4,757 Crush 1,734 1,873 1,886 1,899 1,940 Seed & Residual 107 146 122 136 Exports 1,638 1,842 1,936 2,174 2,250 Total Use 3,478 3,862 3,944 4,214 4,326 Ending Stocks 430 Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 13.00 10.10 8.95 9.47 9.20 Source: USDA-WAOB 3 3

Projected Corn Yields Top: 2017 Yield Estimate Bottom: Change from last month Units: Bushels/acre Source: USDA-NASS 4 4

Projected Soybean Yields Top: 2017 Yield Estimate Bottom: Change from last month Units: Bushels/acre Source: USDA-NASS 5 5

World Corn Production Source: USDA-WAOB 6 6

World Soybean Production Source: USDA-WAOB 7 7

U.S. Meat Production & Prices Source: USDA-WAOB 8 8

U.S. Meat Trade Million pounds Source: USDA-WAOB 9 9

Key factors for 2017 and beyond Crops/Feedstuffs – BULLISH for livestock sector. Supply – Growing and competing animal protein supplies. Domestic Demand – Increasingly competitive environment, battle for market share. Trade – Stabilizing factor. Strong exports and declining imports. Producers resiliently charging ahead.

+8.1% (‘15 vs ‘14) +2.4% (‘16 vs ‘15) +3.2% (’17YTD vs ’16YTD) Source: USDA/AMS. * Steve Meyer, EMI.

Source: Steve Meyer. Published in National Hog Farmer Magazine, July 27, 2017.

Pork Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

LMIC Pork Production Quarterly Forecasts (10/2/17) Sources: USDA/NASS; USDA/AMS Livestock Market News; Projections and Forecasts by LMIC

Year-over-Year Prices: Lean Hogs

Data Source: USDA-NASS; Forecasts by LMIC

Data Source: USDA-NASS, Forecasts by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center

Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled and Forecasts by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center

Beef Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

Data Source: USDA & LMIC, Compiled by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center

Year-over-Year Prices: Live Cattle

Corn Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS

Corn Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

Soybean Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS

Soybean Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

Ethanol Production Sources: EIA, my projection for 2017

Ethanol Exports Source: EIA

Current Corn Futures 3.94 3.55 Source: CME Group, 11/1/2017

Current Soybean Futures 9.88 9.75 Source: CME Group, 11/1/2017

2017/18 Crop Margins

2017/18 Margins @ Actual Yields

Margins @ Actual Yields and Basis

2018/19 Margins w/ 2017 Costs

Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www2. econ Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: http://www2.econ.iastate.edu/faculty/hart/ Iowa Farm Outlook: http://www2.econ.iastate.edu/ifo/ Ag Decision Maker: http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/