A MEGA-PARADIGM SHIFT FOR THE 21st CENTURY lecture by Walter Hays Uploading date: February 27, 2015 More lectures at Disasters Supercourse - http://www.pitt.edu/~super1/collections/collection52.htm PPT original - http://www.pitt.edu/~super7/53011-54001/53111.ppt URL: http://www.pitt.edu/~super1/lecture/lec53111/index.htm Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, Vienna, Virginia, USA 

THE GOAL: 7+ BILLION PEOPLE IN-VOLVED IN A MEGA-PARADIGM SHIFT

THE MEGA-PARADIGM SHIFT CHANGING HUMAN BEHAVIOR ABOUT DISASTER RISK REDUCTION AROUND THE GLOBE

DISASTER RISK REDUCTION NEEDS OF 21st CENTURY PROTECTING PEOPLE and their HABITATS HEALTH CARE, NEW MEDICINE, and WATER PRE- AND POST-DISASTER ASSESSMENTS RENEWING INFRASTRUCTURE GLOBAL WARMING

TOWARD A GLOBAL CHANGE IN HUMAN BEHAVIOR ABOUT DRR PERIOD OF IMPLEMENTATION PERIOD OF INTEGRATION WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY UNDER-STAND IDENT-IFY HEAR POLICIES AND PRACTICES PERSON-ALIZE

AN INCREMENTAL PROCESS USE EXISTING KNOWLEDGE AS A BASIS FOR INNOVATIVE, CONCERTED GLOBAL ACTION IMPROVE EDUCATION CLARIFY GOALS ELEMINATE INERTIAL BARRIERS INCREASE ODDS FOR SUCCESS VISUALIZE BENEFITS ALIGN THINKING & ACTION

POLICY OPTIONS YOUR COMMUNITY PREPAREDNESS PROTECTION EARLY WARNING NATURAL HAZARDS INVENTORY VULNERABILITY LOCATION RISK ASSESSMENT ACCEPTABLE RISK UNACCEPTABLE RISK RISK GOAL: DISASTER RISK REDUCTION YOUR COMMUNITY DATA BASES AND INFORMATION PREPAREDNESS PROTECTION EARLY WARNING EMERGENCY RESPONSE RECOVERY/RECONSTR. POLICY OPTIONS HAZARDS: GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN UP AFTERSHOCKS

FACT: EVERYONE WILL BENEFIT FROM A DISASTER-RISK REDUCTION DIVIDEND

FACT: SOME HUMANS, INSTITUTIONS, COMMUNITIES, AND NATIONS MAY NOT WANT TO CHANGE THEIR BEHAVIOR ABOUT DISASTER RISK REDUCTION

FIVE KEY STEPS MAKE THE GOAL CLEAR MAKE THE GOAL AND ITS BENEFITS AND INERTIAL BARRIERS EASY TO VISUALIZE MAKE THE GOAL POPULAR MARSHAL A GLOBAL POLITICAL MANDATE FOR THE GOAL IMPLEMENT– INNOVATE-- IMPLEMENT

CHANGING HUMAN BEHAVIOR STEP 1: PROVIDE CLEAR INFORMATION ABOUT THE GOAL, THE BENEFITS, AND THE INERTIAL BARRIERS TO SUCCESS.

GOAL: CHANGING HUMAN BEHAVIOR ABOUT DRR FLOODS IMPROVE ON PAST PERFORMANCE VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS EARTHQUAKES INCREASE SCIENTIFIC TECHNICAL AND POLITICAL CAPACITY TSUNAMIS IMPROVE ODDS FOR SUCCESS LANDSLIDES WILDFIRES HURRICANES TYPHOONS DROUGHTS GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE

CHANGING HUMAN BEHAVIOR ON DRR RELEVANT INCREASES PUBLIC AWARENESS WHAT ARE THE BENEFITS OF A MEGA-PARADIGM SHIFT ON DRR INCREASES UNDERSTANDING ENABLES POLICY ADOPTION INCREASES EQUITY

BENEFITS OF A MEGA-PARADIGM SHIFT ON DRR Increases the "World's Mutual Fund for Education," (i.e., every country has resources for education in their budget)

BENEFITS OF A MEGA-PARADIGM SHIFT ON DRR Increases disaster risk reduction in every community, including the Mega-city-- a special challenge all by itself

BENEFITS OF A MEGA-PARADIGM SHIFT ON DRR Integrates goals of communities of all sizes Focus all available resources on disaster-risk reduction Can minimize ignorance, apathy, political & disciplinary boundaries, and lack of political will about DRR

BENEFITS OF A MEGA-PARADIGM SHIFT ON DRR Equips, links, and engages legions of new and emerging professionals with mature professionals to work innovatively on each problem.

BENEFITS OF A MEGA-PARADIGM SHIFT ON DRR Intensifies efforts in the well-known high-risk locations that often will lag far behind other communities

BENEFITS OF A MEGA-PARADIGM SHIFT ON DRR Transfers ownership of existing knowledge and technology to communities where capacity may be insufficient to solve DRR problems.

INERTIAL BARRIERS TO SUCCESS INERTIAL BARRIERS ARE UNIVERSAL; THEY CAN BE FOUND IN EVERY INSTITUTION, COMMUNITY, AND NATION

INERTIAL BARRIERS ARE ALWAYS BETWEEN YOU AND THE GOAL IGNORANCE APATHY

INERTIAL BARRIERS ARE ALWAYS BETWEEN YOU AND THE GOAL HORIZONTAL AND VERTICAL DISCIPLINARY AND POLITICAL BOUNDARIES LACK OF POLITICAL WILL

CHANGING HUMAN BEHAVIOR STEP 2: PUBLICIZE THE SUCCESS STORIES FOR EACH NATION AS THE HUMAN, INSTITUTIONAL, AND COMMUNITY INERTIAL BARRIERS TO CHANGE IN DRR ARE MINIMIZED

CHANGING HUMAN BEHAVIOR STEP 3: PROMOTE CONFORMITY OF THINKING AND ACTION BECAUSE PEOPLE, INSTITUTIONS, AND COMMUNITIES WILL WANT TO DO WHAT OTHERS ARE DOING IF THEY THINK THEIR PARADIGM WILL LEAD TO SUCCESS

A PROCESS THAT BUILDS EQUITY AND MINIMIZES BARRIERS PROMOTING CONFORMITY A PROCESS THAT BUILDS EQUITY AND MINIMIZES BARRIERS THE KNOWLEDGE BASE CAPACITY BUILDING CONTINUING EDUCATION Risk and Loss Assessments Increased Understanding Hazard Characterization Vulnerability Assessments Real & Near Real Time Information Flow Data Acquisition Interface with Multiple Networks Cause & Effect Relationships Emergency Managers Policy Makers Practitioners Intelligent Emergency Management Tailored to Community Needs Up Close, Virtual, and Distance Learning Update Knowledge Bases After Each Disaster Disaster Scenarios Training Information Technology

MAKING OTHERS WANT TO DO WHAT YOU ARE DOING USE EXISTING KNOWLEDGE AND TECHNOLOGY INNOVATIVELY INITIATE INMOVATIVE, CON-CERTED ACTIONS DESIGNED TO BENEFIT YOUR COMMUNITY AND GLOBAL “SISTER COMMUNITIES”

“DISASTER LABORATORIES” HAPPEN EVERY YEAR CYCLONE NARGIS NEW KNOWLEDGE FOR REDUCING COMMUNITY DISASTER RISK WENCHUAN EARTHQUAKE FLOODING: MIDWESTERN USA NEW KNOWLEDGE FOR CHANGING HUMAN BEHAVIOR TROPICAL STORMS AND HURRICANES WILDFIRES IN CALIFORNIA ERUPTION OF VOLCANO CHAITEN GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE

TURNING POINTS IN A SUCCESSFUL MEGA-PARADIGM SHIFT EDUCATION: PENETRATES SOCIETY IGNORANCE TO ENLIGHTENMENT BUILDING EQUITY AND TRANS-FORMING BARRIERS INTO OPPORTUNITIES APATHY TO EMPOWERMENT BOUNDARIES TO NETWORKS ENABLEMENT OF POLITICAL WILL

CHANGING HUMAN BEHAVIOR STEP 4: MAKE THE GOAL—CHANGING GLOBAL HUMAN BEHAVIOR ABOUT DRR-- A POLITICAL MANDATE IN EVERY COUNTRY. [NOTE: DRR SHOULD BE ON THE AGENDAS OF G-8 and G-20 NATIONS]

CHANGING HUMAN BEHAVIOR STEP 5: IMPLEMENT POLICIES AND PRACTICES TO CHANGE HUMAN BEHAVIOR ON DRR INNOVATIVELY, USING GLOBAL PARTNERS AND LABORATORIES TO INCREASE THE ODDS FOR SUCCESS.

GOAL: CHANGE HUMAN BEHAVIOR PARADIGM SHIFTS INNOVATION GOAL: CHANGE HUMAN BEHAVIOR FUNCTIONAL NETWORKING CHANNELS INFORMATION NETWORKING CHANNELS PARADIGM SHIFTS ORGANIZATION NETWORKING CHANNELS PRIVATE SECTOR PUBLIC SECTOR COMMUNITY STAKEHOLDERS ACADEMIA Stratec Consulting

INCREASE THE ODDS FOR SUCCESS INNOVATION THAT FACILITATES WORKING TOGETHER AND WORKING TOGETHER IN WAYS THAT FACILITATES INNOVATION

EXAMPLES OF INNOVATION 1 + 1 >> 1 Political + Science >> either Science or Political alone

EXAMPLES OF INNOVATION 1 + 1 + 1 + …+ 1 = G-8 8 Nations win 1 + 1 + 1 + . . . + 1 = G-20 20 Nations win 1 + 1 + 1 +. . . + 1 = 200 Everyone wins

PROTECTING PEOPLE and their HABITATS

PROTECTING PEOPLE and their HABITATS THE CHALLENGE: How do you make people, habitats, buildings, and essential and critical infrastructure disaster resilient in communities that are at risk from floods, severe windstorms, earthquakes, landslides, tsunamis, volcanic eruptions, and wildfires?

INCREASING THE ODDS FOR SUCCESS USE THE “GLOBAL DISASTER LABORATORIES” TO FORM POLICY AND BEST PRACTICES

INADEQUATE RESISTANCE TO HORIZONTAL GROUND SHAKING CAUSES OF DAMAGE INADEQUATE RESISTANCE TO HORIZONTAL GROUND SHAKING SOIL AMPLIFICATION PERMANENT DISPLACEMENT (SURFACE FAULTING & GROUND FAILURE) IRREGULARITIES IN ELEVATION AND PLAN EARTHQUAKES “DISASTER LABORATORIES” TSUNAMI WAVE RUNUP POOR DETAILING AND WEAK CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS FRAGILITY OF NON-STRUCTURAL ELEMENTS

HIGH VELOCITY IMPACT OF INCOMING WAVES CAUSES OF DAMAGE HIGH VELOCITY IMPACT OF INCOMING WAVES INLAND DISTANCE OF WAVE RUNUP VERTICAL HEIGHT OF WAVE RUNUP TSUNAMIS INADEQUATE RESISTANCE OF BUILDINGS FLOODING “DISASTER LABORATORIES” INADEQUATE HORIZONTAL AND VERTICAL EVACUATION PROXIMITY TO SOURCE OF TSUNAMI

FLOODS CAUSES OF RISK LOSS OF FUNCTION OF STRUCTURES IN FLOODPLAIN INUNDATION INTERACTION WITH HAZARDOUS MATERIALS STRUCTURE & CONTENTS: DAMAGE FROM WATER FLOODS WATER BORNE DISEASES (HEALTH PROBLEMS) DISASTER LABORATORIES EROSION AND MUDFLOWS CONTAMINATION OF GROUND WATER

WIND PENETRATING BUILDING ENVELOPE CAUSES OF DAMAGE WIND PENETRATING BUILDING ENVELOPE UPLIFT OF ROOF SYSTEM FLYING DEBRIS SEVERE WINDSTORMS STORM SURGE IRREGULARITIES IN ELEVATION AND PLAN “DISASTER LABORATORIES” SITING PROBLEMS FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES

DISASTER LABORATORIES CAUSES OF RISK LATERAL BLAST PYROCLASTIC FLOWS FLYING DEBRIS VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS VOLCANIC ASH LAVA FLOWS DISASTER LABORATORIES LAHARS TOXIC GASES

SITING AND BUILDING ON UNSTABLE SLOPES CAUSES OF DAMAGE SITING AND BUILDING ON UNSTABLE SLOPES SOIL AND ROCK SUCEPTIBLE TO FALLS SOIL AND ROCK SUCEPTIBLE TO TOPPLES LANDSLIDES SOIL AND ROCK SUCEPTIBLE TO SPREADS SOIL AND ROCK SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLOWS DISASTER LABORATORIES PRECIPITATION THAT TRIGGERS SLOPE FAILURE SHAKING GROUND SHAKING THAT TRIGGERS SLOPE FAILURE

PROXIMITY OF URBAN AREA TO WILDLANDS INTERFACE CAUSES OF DAMAGE LIGHTNING STRIKES MANMADE FIRES PROXIMITY OF URBAN AREA TO WILDLANDS INTERFACE WILDFIRES WIND DIRECTION (DAY AND NIGHT) DRYNESS DISASTER LABORATORIES HIGH TEMPERATURES FUEL SUPPLY

PROLONGED LACK OF PRECIPITATION CAUSES OF DAMAGE PROLONGED LACK OF PRECIPITATION LOSS OF SOIL MOSTURE LOSS OF AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY DROUGHTS DEPLETION/POLLUTION OF GROUND WATER LOSS OF VEGETATION DISASTER LABORATORIES INSECT INFESTATION LOSS OF LAND FROM DESERTIFICATION

PRE- AND POST-DISASTER ASSESSMENTS THE CHALLENGE: How do you use computers and information technology to create realistic pre-event disaster scenarios and post-disaster assessments for use in education and as a basis for policies and best practices for disaster risk reduction?

RENEWING COMMUNITY INFRASTRUCTURE THE CHALLENGE: How do you renew aging community infrastructure that is becoming increasingly vulnerable each year to the disaster risks posed by natural hazards?

HEALTH CARE NEW MEDICINES CLEAN WATER QUALITY OF LIFE CONCERNS

HEALTH CARE THE CHALLENGE: How do you identify the specific factors behind wellness and illness and follow through on them to realize the promise of global health care as an integral part of the quality of life ?

NEW MEDICINES THE CHALLENGE: How do you find new treatments for age-old scourges such as malaria as well as the emerging diseases such as Alzheimer's and the deadly Ebola virus?

CLEAN WATER THE CHALLENGE: How do you increase the precious and relatively short supply of clean water for personal use, irrigation, and industrial use in all areas of the world?

GLOBAL WARMING: CONCERN OF THE CENTURY THE QUESTION: Are Planet Earth’s solar-atmospheric-oceanic-litho-spheric and human- inter-actions causing irreversible global warming?

GLOBAL WARMING: AN EMERGING THREAT THE CHALLENGE: How do you monitor and adapt to the complex, long-term physical interactions that may be causing small changes in the physical parameters that control long-term increases in air, land, and water temperatures?

SOLAR INPUT: THE STARTING POINT After reaching Earth's upper atmosphere, about one - third of the solar spectrum is reflected back into space.

SOLAR INPUT (continued) Two-thirds gets through the upper atmos-phere, reaching the land masses and oceans—the engines for Earth's weather.

GREENHOUSE GASES OCCUR NATURALLY IN THE ATMOSPHERE The greenhouse gases include water vapor, carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide.

KEY PHYSICAL INTERACTIONS Absorption, storage, and re-radiation of the fraction of light and EM waves that enter the Earth’s atmosphere (causes the “natural” greenhouse effect). Absorption of heat by the greenhouse gases in the atmosphere (causes the “un-natural” greenhouse effect).

“NATURAL”GREENHOUSE EFFECT Greenhouse gases trap heat inside the atmosphere.

NET EFFECT OF THESE INTERACTIONS THE “NATURAL” GREENHOUSE EFFECT KEEPS THE EARTH WARM AT ABOUT 57.9 DEGREES, BUT THE “UN-NATURAL”GREENHOUSE EFFECT TRAPS TOO MUCH HEAT IN THE ATMOSPHERE, CAUSING A GLOBAL INCREASE IN THE TEMPERATURE OF THE LAND MASSES AND OCEANS.

“UN-NATURAL”GREENHOUSE EFFECT Too much trapped heat increases temperatures in the atmosphere first, and on the land and ocean surfaces, second. Causing global warming.

WHAT CAN WE DO ABOUT GLOBAL WARMING? The “TIPPING SCENARIO” is the big unknown that creates today’s dilemma! Question: Is it already too late to reverse the un-natural (i.e., partly man-caused) causes of global warming?

WE HAVE TO CHANGE HUMAN BEHAVIOR ABOUT ALL ASPECTS OF DISASTER RISK REDUCTION FOR EVERYONE TO WIN!