1. THE GLOBAL DISASTER LABORATORY MODEL PART 20A: AN INTEGRATED FRAMEWORK FOR GLOBAL VOLCANO DISASTER RESILIENCE
lecture by Walter Hays Uploading date: August 15, 2014
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Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, Vienna, Virginia, USA 

2. FRAMEWORK 1 A COMPREHENSIVE, INTER-DISCIPLINARY DIALOGUE ON GLOBAL DISASTERS AND DISASTER RESILIENCE

3. 1. SCOPE FROM VULNERABLE CONTINUUMS TO A DISASTER TO
DISASTER RESILIENT COMMUNITIES
THROUGH IMPLEMENTATION OF
“THE BEST POLICIES AND BEST PRACTICES” OF DISASTER RESILIENCE

4. A DISASTER is ---
--- the set of failures that occur when the continuums of: 1)  people, 2) community (i.e., a set of habitats, livelihoods, and social constructs), and 3) recurring events (e.g., volcanic eruptions, floods, ...,) intersect at a point in space and time, when and where the community is not ready.    

5. THREE DYNAMIC CONTINUUMS
PEOPLE (7+ Billion and counting)
COMMUNITIES
RECURRING EVENTS (AKA Natural Hazards, which are proof of a DYNAMIC EARTH)

6. PEOPLE = INNOVATION SUB-SAHARA AFRICA CARIBBEAN BASIN EUROPE
200 NATIONS AND 7+
BILLION PEOPLE
NORTH
AMERICA
MEDITER-
RANEAN
SOUTH
AMERICA
ISLAND
NATIONS
ASIA

7. INTERSECTION OF THESE CONTINUUMS IS INEVITABLE
SOME INTERSECTIONS WILL CAUSE A DISASTER,
AND SOME WON’T

8. THE PEOPLE CONTINUUM
7 + BILLION (DISTRIBUTED THROUGHOUT THE WORLD)

9. LIKE AN INFINITE SERIES: a continuum OF INNOVATION NEVER ENDS

10. LIKE A CHAIN: a continuum HAs WEAK LINKS TO IMPROVE

11. FOUR UNIVERSAL WEAK-LINKS
IGNORANCE
APATHY
DISCIPLINARY BOUNDARIES
LACK OF POLITICAL WILL

12. THE COMMUNITY CONTINUUM: (SOCIAL CONSTRUCTS TO BENEFIT THE PEOPLE)
GOVERNMENT
DWELLINGS
SCHOOLS
HEALTH CARE FACILITIES
BUSINESSES
INFRA-STRUCTURE
ETC

13. EACH COMMUNITY MUST BE READY FOR THE INEVITABLE INTERSECTION THAT WILL CHALLENGE ITS STATE-OF-RESILIENCE

14. THE RECURRING - EVENTS CONTINUUM
FLOODS
SEVERE WINDSTORMS
EARTHQUAKES
DROUGHTS
VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS
ETC.

15. RECURRING VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS

16. RECURRING EARTHQUAKES

17. RECURRING TROPICAL STORMS TYPHOONS, HURRICANES, AND CYCLONES

18. RECURRING FLOODS

19. RECURRING DROUGHT EPISODES

20. CURRENT KNOWLEDGE IS DEFINED BY ANECTDOTAL, EMPIRICAL, LINEAR, NON-LINEAR, STATISTICAL, FUZZY, PROBABILISTIC, AND THEORETICAL MODELS HAVING DIVIDES, GAPS, AND UNCERTAINTIES

21. FRAMEWORK 2 A COMPREHENSIVE, INTER-DISCIPLINARY INTEGRATION OF KNOWLEDGE FOR THE END GAME OF DISASTER RESILIENCE IN THE 21ST CENTURY

22. POLICIES AND PRACTICES FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE
Anticipatory Preparedness
Adoption and Implementation of Realistic Building Codes & Standards
Timely Early Warning and Evacuation
Timely Emergency Response (including Evacuation and Emergency Medical Services)
Cost-Effective Recovery/Reconstruction

23. YOUR COMMUNITY BEST PRACTICES A DISASTER DISASTER RESILIENCE FLOODS
SEVERE WIND STORMS
EARTHQUAKES …ETC
A DISASTER
FAILURES IN POLICIES
FAILURES IN PRACTICES
CAUSES
COUNTER MEASURES
YOUR COMMUNITY
DATA BASES AND INFORMATION
BEST POLICIES
BEST PRACTICES
DISASTER RESILIENCE
HAZARDS: GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN UP AFTERSHOCKS

24. THE END GAME CHALLENGE BEST POLICIES AND BEST PRACTICES
INNIVATIVE ACTIONS: CREATE, ADJUST, AND REALIGN PROGRAMS, PARTNERS AND PEOPLE UNTIL YOU HAVE CREATED THE PARA-DIGM SHIFTS THAT ARE NEEDED FOR MOVING TOWARDS DISASTER RESILIENCE

25. BEST POLICIES AND BEST PRACTICES WILL IDENTIFY/CLOSE KNOWLEDGE DIVIDES AND GAPS, AND IDENTIFY/FIX WEAK LINKS IN THE PEOPLE/COMMUNITY CONTINUUMS

26. BEST POLICIES AND BEST PRACTICES WILL CALL FOR INNOVATIVE USE OF TECHNOLOGY AND STRATEGIC PLANNING

27. THE STATE-OF-RESILIENCE WILL INCREASE EXPONEBTIALLY AS ---
a) The CAPACITY of the PEOPLE is increased, b) Physical and organizational VULNERABILITIES in the COMMUNITY are eliminated, and c) Each people-community-hazard INTERSECTION is met successfully.

28. VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS

30. INNOVATIVE PREPAREDNESS USE GLOBAL VOLCANIC ERUPTION DISASTER LABORATORIES AS A BASIS FOR PREPARING FROM “A” (Emergency Response) TO “Z” (Recovery and Reconstruction)

31. EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES FOR VOLCANO DISASTER RESILIENCE

32. EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES FOR VOLCANO DISASTER RESILIENCE
DATABASES FOR EACH VOLCANO
COMPUTER MODELS OF VOLCANOES
MAPS
DISASTER SCENARIOS
HAZARD ASSESSMENT
RISK ASSESSMENT
FORECASTS OF ERUPTIONS
MONITORING TECHNOLOGIES (E.G., DEFORMATION, SEISMICITY, GAS EMISSIONS, REMOTE SENSING, WINDS)
WARNING SYSTEMS

33. MONITORING TECHNOLOGIES.

34. DISASTER RESILIENCE STRATEGIES FOR VOLCANOES

35. DISASTER RESILIENCE STRATEGIES FOR VOLCANOES
PURPOSE
PROTECTION
CONTROL
AVIATION SAFETY
TECHNIQUE
DESIGN ROOFS FOR WET ASH
LAVA AND/OR LAHAR DIVERSION CHANNELS
MODELS OF ASH DISTRIBUTION

36. PROTECTION: DESIGN ROOFS FOR WET ASH
A LOAD OF WET ASH ON A ROOF IS TEN TIMES HEAVIER THAN A LOAD OF WET SNOW.

37. AVIATION SAFETY:MODELS TO AVOID VOLCANIC ASH
JET AIRCRAFT ARE SUSCEPTIBLE TO ENGINE FAILURE AND FREE FALL WHEN FLYING THROUGH AN ASH CLOUD.

38. LAVA DIVERSION CHANNELS: CONTROL
LAVA FLOWS CAN NOT BE PRE-VENTED FROM OCCURRING, BUT THEY CAN BE DIVERTED AWAY FROM URBAN CENTERS INTO THE OCEAN

39. DISASTER RESILIENCE STRATEGIES FOR VOLCANOES
PURPOSE
COMPUTER MODELS OF A SPECIFIC VOL-CANO, OR A SPECIFIC HAZARD (E.G., ASH DISTRIBUTION)
TECHNIQUE
REAL TIME MONITORING
ERUPTION HISTORY OF A VOLCANO

40. EXAMPLE: COMPUTER MODELS OF SELECTED ACTIVE VOLCANOES
PRECURSORS TO EXPECT
LIKELY EXPLOSIVENESS
LIKELY SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL DISTRIBUTION OF PHYSICAL EFFECTS

41. COMPUTER MODELS: MOUNT RAINIER: LAHAR SIMULATION

42. LAHAR DIVERSION CHANNELS: CONTROL
LAHARS CAN NOT BE PREVENTED FROM OCCUR-RING, BUT THEY CAN BE DIVERTED AWAY FROM URBAN CENTERS.

43. DISASTER RESILIENCE STRATEGIES FOR VOLCANOES
PURPOSE
URBAN PLANNING
EVACUATION
TECHNIQUE
MAPS: LAVA AND/OR LAHAR FLOW PATHS
COMMUNITY EVACUATION PLAN

44. EXAMPLE: MOUNT MERAPI EVACUATION PLAN
11,000 from three districts were evacuated to schools and other designated emergency shelters.

45. MANY CHOSE TO EVACUATE
Many citizens chose to evacuate, as was ordered.
Many villagers remembered the 1994 disaster and did not want to repeat it.

46. MANY CHOOSE NOT TO EVACUATE
Many citizens chose not to evacuate because shelters are boring and they needed to provide for livestock and tend crops.