Why the UK needs a new hub airport for London Presentation to the West London Sub Regional Transport Panel 16 May 2013

The Problem Aviation is hugely important to the UK economy Hub airport capacity aggregates passengers and delivers global connectivity Heathrow, the UK's hub airport, is full and can't meet the UK's needs Demand is forecast to double by 2050 "Heathrow is poorly connected to emerging markets" Heathrow spokesperson Heathrow already accounts for 28% of people in Europe blighted by signficant disturbance from airports A 3rd runway at Heathrow is not a long-term solution The UK needs an alternative hub airport that provides greater connectivity without dire consequences for hundreds of thousands of people The issue is urgent: the Uk is already losing significant trade to European hub airports

Aviation connectivity is key Aviation connectivity has been and remains key to economic prosperity Vital for trade, inward investment A more multi-polar global economy means access to a wider range of destinations to secure that propserity An effective hub airport is essential for that aviation connectivity… Forecast annual traffic growth to/from Europe (%), 2011-31

Why is a hub important? A hub supports routes and frequencies that would otherwise not be viable BA flights from Heathrow-New York JFK: 7½ flights per day (in 2007) 39% of passengers are transferring at Heathrow – i.e. two planes' worth 39 routes out of Heathrow have >50% transfer traffic including Phoenix, Calgary, Mexico City, Hyderabad, Cape Town A hub airport requires sufficient catchment area population and economic profile  critical mass of flights Heathrow accounts for 40% of all UK scheduled traffic… …but 80% of all UK direct scheduled longhaul traffic

Heathrow is falling behind… Heathrow lacks the runway capacity Increased delays and very poor resilience in the face of disruption Severely constrains number of destinations served Every slot has an opportunity cost (>£1m) Established longhaul routes prioritised… …at expense of less developed routes – including to vital emerging markets Limited access for freighter services Hub Airport Runways Utilisation Destinations 1992 Destinations 2012 London Heathrow 2 98.5% 160 156 Paris CDG 4 73.5% 154 231 Frankfurt 74.5% 192 271 Amsterdam 6 70.0% 167 258

Failing connectivity: UK-China Weekly direct frequencies to Mainland China Weekly frequencies Paris CDG 69 Frankfurt 55 Amsterdam 44 London LHR 35 Munich 21 Helsinki 18 Destinations served 6 5 4 3 2 Shenyang 21 Frankfurt 21 Paris CDG 14 London LHR 14 Amsterdam 12 Munich 7 Helsinki 4 Frankfurt 14 London LHR Beijing Qingdao 4 Frankfurt 33 Paris CDG 28 Frankfurt 18 London LHR 12 Amsterdam 7 Munich 7 Helsinki 3 Frankfurt Nanjing 4 Amsterdam Chengdu Shanghai 18 London LHR Wuhan 3 Paris Hangzhou 4 Helsinki Chongqing 4 Amsterdam 12 Paris CDG 7 Amsterdam 3 London LHR Xiamen 3 London LHR Guangzhou 3 Amsterdam

The need for a new London hub The scale of the challenge – the Government’s Forecasts London Heathrow demand forecasts DfT 2011, ‘capacity unconstrained Passengers (mppa) Air traffic movements / yr Absolute maximum capacity of Heathrow Current throughput at Heathrow

The problems with Heathow Heathrow is unsuitable for further expansion Heathrow is located within a densely populated area and has flight paths over London. 28 per cent of all people in Europe affected by aircraft noise are those affected by Heathrow – more than 700,000 people After central London, Heathrow is the second major hot spot for poor air quality in London particularly with nitrogen dioxide Runways are operating at 99% of their capacity 60% of arriving aircraft are held in stacks, causing delays Flight times from Amsterdam and Paris CDG have increased by 50% Adverse weather e.g. snow causes delay and misery for thousands of passengers because of lack of spare capacity There is huge demand for long-haul flights to land in London between 4am and 6am However, this is when aircraft noise is most intrusive

Meeting the Uk's Aviation Challenge Heathrow expansion is not the answer A 3rd runway would not deliver the capacity needed to meet long term forecasts – the level of capacity needed cannot be provided at Heathrow The environmental impacts of further expansion at Heathrow would be unacceptable There would still be a need to develop a long term solution

Meeting the Uk's Aviation Challenge Options to be considered A new hub airport for London – either in a new location to the east of London or at an existing airport site (Stansted) If the necessary Government policy framework is put in place, a new airport could be delivered in a similar timescale to a third runway A new hub airport could be located and planned to minimise environmental impacts and enable the UK to fully meet its economic potential

Criteria for new airport capacity Economic Supporting growth and regeneration; area with necessary resource capacity Airport infrastructure Sufficient runway/terminal capacity; optimised airport facilities Airspace Meets operational and safety-related requirements Surface Access Fast, direct road and rail access to key locations: London & Southeast, UK, Europe Environmental Minimises local impacts: noise, air quality, communities, wildlife/biodiversity Deliverability Can address planning and construction risk; value for money

The Mayor's emerging view Stansted Outer Thames Estuary Inner Thames Estuary

What happens to Heathrow? Several options, including: Reduced size airport Full or partial re-development of the site Housing/more commercial land uses Mayor will carefully appraise the relative merits of these options This will be covered in more detail in our response to the Airports Commission in July Armageddon? No!

What to do with Heathrow? "Relocation"of Heathrow to where it can expand to meet the UK's hub demand and support London's growth potential. Long timescales to plan move and transitionary arrangements (done elsewhere, cycles of capital investment) London can pro-actively manage this change and is a job creation dynamo (35,000/year forecast) West London economy based on more than just access to Heathrow (labour and property markets). Rapid surface access to new airport from across London and significant improvement in PT modal shift as part of long term transport planning. Heathrow labour force mobile (45,000 in airlines) and already commute relatively long distances. In the medium term residential redevelopment of 1,200 ha site with c.80,000 homes would trigger 46,000 jobs aligned with skill sets of surrounding residents.

Potential for Strategic Infrastructure Planning Thames Gateway has 34% of the south east's total housing capacity on only 3% of the land. One third of London's housing capacity is in the Thames Gateway. If GDP and GVA match the Greater SE’s regional averages, this would add £12 billion to the local economy by 2020.

Key milestones Mayor of London A new airport for London: Part 1 The case for new capacity A new airport for London: Part 2 The economic benefits of a new hub airport Response to the DfT Draft Aviation Policy Framework DfT Airports Commission established under Sir Howard Davies Aviation Policy Framework published Airports Commission Interim report to be published [calls for evidence throughout 2013] Final report to be published Submission to Airports Commission January 2011 November 2011 October 2012 November 2012 March 2013 July 2013 Late 2013 2015

Next Steps 2013 July: Mayor to publish submission to Airports Commission October: further analysis of options 2014 Detailed presentation to sub regional transport panel On-going dialogue post Airports Commission interim report Dec 2013

Contacts Rhiannon Hill - Programme Manager: rhiannonhill@tfl.gov.uk Guy Lavis - Exetrnal Affairs Lead: guylavis@tfl.gov.uk Chris Mills – Transport Planning Manager: christophermills@tfl.gov.uk