1. Adaptive Airport Strategic Planning J.H. Kwakkel, W.E. Walker, V.A.W.J. Marchau 15 October 2008

2. 2 Outline Traditional airport strategic planning Problems with traditional airport strategic planning A synthesized approach for adaptive airport strategic planning (AASP) An illustration of AASP based on Schiphol Conclusions

3. 3 Problems with traditional airport strategic planning why Master Planning fails The default approach to airport strategic planning is Master Planning: – Forecast aviation demand – Assess whether the airport can accommodate this demand – Design capacity expansions if necessary Problems: – Often only a single or few forecasts used – Based only on aviation demand – The resulting Master Plan is static Results: – Airport design is not adequate to accommodate actual demand – Plan is unable to be implemented – Response to unanticipated events is made in an ad-hoc manner

4. 4 Problems with traditional airport strategic planning criteria for a new planning approach The planning approach should consider many different types of uncertainties, in addition to demand uncertainties The planning approach should consider many different plausible futures The resulting plan should be robust across the different futures The resulting plan should be flexible.

5. 5 Adaptive Airport Strategic Planning a synthesized approach Key ideas found in literature – Real options – Adaptive planning process and framework – Proactive planning Synthesized approach is based on: – Determining a set of goals – Assembling a basic policy and identifying conditions for success – Identifying the policys vulnerabilities and opportunities, and ways of protecting or improving it – Monitoring progress towards the goals – Adapting the policy as conditions change

6. 6 Adaptive Airport Strategic Planning an illustration based on Schiphol Schiphol has grown rapidly over the past 15 years Now: Major hub in Europe But: – Significant uncertainties in aviation industry – KLM-Air France merger – Competition among airports in Europe – Severe noise complaints – Accessibility is decreasing Planning for Schiphols long-term development is a challenge

7. 7 Adaptive Airport Strategic Planning step I and step II: stage setting and the basic policy Stage Setting: – Objective: accommodate growth and minimize the negative effects of aviation in the region – Policy options: new runway or terminal, move part of operations elsewhere, change usage of the existing runways, add noise insulation Basic Policy: – Immediately implement plans to improve the efficiency of runway usage and reduce noise impacts – Immediately add noise insulation to surrounding residences – Develop plans for a new runway and new terminal, but dont implement the plans now

8. 8 Adaptive Airport Strategic Planning step I and step II: stage setting and the basic policy Success conditions: – Demand should continue to grow – Population affected by noise and the number of noise complaints should not increase – Schiphols landside accessibility should not deteriorate

9. 9 Adaptive Airport Strategic Planning step III: actions taken immediately to protect the basic policy Vulnerability 1: Demand should continue to grow – Shaping action: advertise for flying from Schiphol – Mitigating action: prepare plan to move charter operations to Lelystad Vulnerability 2: Population affected by noise and noise complaints should not increase – Hedging action: test noise abatement procedures outside peak periods – Shaping action: change the publics perception by branding Schiphol as an environmentally friendly airport Vulnerability 3: Landside accessibility should not deteriorate – Mitigating action: develop an early check-in and baggage handling system at rail stations – Shaping Action: invest in R&D into the accessibility of the Schiphol area

10. 10 Adaptive Airport Strategic Planning step IV: future actions to protect the basic policy Monitoring Action 1: Monitor demand in terms of aircraft, passengers, and cargo, and the transfer rate – Demand increases faster than expected: Capitalizing Action: implement capacity expansions – Demand increases slower than expected Defensive action: diversify the carriers that fly from Schiphol Corrective Action: cancel capacity expansions – Demand breaks down or explodes Reassess (no protection possible)

11. 11 Adaptive Airport Strategic Planning step IV: future actions to protect the basic policy Monitoring Action 2: Monitor developments in the Schiphol region in terms of noise complaints and population affected by noise – More noise complaints or population affected by noise than expected: Defensive action: increase branding, increase insulation program Corrective Action: limit the available slots – Fewer noise complaints or population affected than expected: Capitalizing action: increase the number of available slots

12. 12 Adaptive Airport Strategic Planning step V: implementation Implement the basic policy and mitigating, hedging, seizing, and shaping actions Implement a monitoring system and start collecting signpost data In case of a trigger event, take prespecified action (defensive, corrective, capitalizing, or reassessment): – e.g., in case of faster growth in demand than expected, move charter operations to Lelystad – e.g., in case of increasing noise complaints, reduce slots, expand branding and marketing

13. 13 Conclusions Airport Master Planning is inadequate for dealing with the many uncertainties airports are facing – Limited number of uncertainties are considered – For each uncertainty, only a small range is considered – Master Plan is static Adaptive Airport Strategic Planning (AASP) synthesizes several innovative ideas for the treatment of uncertainty – Many diverse uncertainties are considered – For each uncertainty, a wide range can be considered – AASP results in a flexible plan In particular, AASP prepares airports better for the unknown future