Associate Professor/Crop Marketing Specialist Ag Trade June 19, 2017 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Crop Marketing Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911 1 1

Source: USDA-FAS

Source: USDA-FAS

Source: USDA-FAS

U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Area Planted (mil. acres) 95.4 90.6 88.0 94.0 90.0 Yield (bu./acre) 158.1 171.0 168.4 174.6 170.7 Production (mil. bu.) 13,829 14,216 13,602 15,148 14,065 Beg. Stocks 821 1,232 1,731 1,737 2,295 Imports 36 32 67 55 50 Total Supply 14,686 15,479 15,401 16,940 16,410 Feed & Residual 5,040 5,280 5,120 5,500 5,425 Ethanol 5,124 5,200 5,224 5,450 Food, Seed, & Other 1,369 1,401 1,422 1,470 1,500 Exports 1,920 1,867 1,898 2,225 1,875 Total Use 13,454 13,748 13,664 14,645 14,300 Ending Stocks 2,110 Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 4.46 3.70 3.61 3.35 3.40 Source: USDA-WAOB 5 5

U.S. Soybean Supply and Use 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Area Planted (mil. acres) 76.8 83.3 82.7 83.4 89.5 Yield (bu./acre) 44.0 47.5 48.0 52.1 Production (mil. bu.) 3,358 3,927 3,926 4,307 4,255 Beg. Stocks 141 92 191 197 450 Imports 72 33 24 25 Total Supply 3,570 4,052 4,140 4,528 4,730 Crush 1,734 1,873 1,886 1,910 1,950 Seed & Residual 107 146 122 118 135 Exports 1,638 1,842 1,936 2,050 2,150 Total Use 3,478 3,862 3,944 4,078 4,235 Ending Stocks 495 Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 13.00 10.10 8.95 9.55 9.30 Source: USDA-WAOB 6 6

Soybean Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS

Change in Corn Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS

Change in Soybean Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS

U.S. Meat Production & Prices Source: USDA-WAOB 10 10

U.S. Meat Trade Million pounds Source: USDA-WAOB 11 11

U.S. Pork Exports, Jan-Mar 2017 (Carcass Wt Basis) Mar-17/Feb-17 Mar-17/Mar-16 Year-to-Date Country Percent 1,000 lbs Japan 18% 4% 22,702 8% Mexico 7% 40% 116,448 33% Canada 61% 6% 28 0% South Korea 38% 37,960 32% China (Mainland) 14% -22% -10,354 -9% Hong Kong 25% -29% -8,297 Australia -17% 15,250 34% Philippines 50% 719 5% China (Taiwan) 123% 46% 699 16% Colombia -15% 95% 21,612 98% Honduras -8% 13% 2,053 11% Dominican Republic -2% 12% 5,033 28% Guatemala -20% -16% -1,007 -10% Chile 74% 44% 5,475 75% Other Countries 15% 658 2% Total 208,977 17% WASDE U.S.: 2015: 5,009 mil lbs 2016: 5,233 (+4%) 2017: 5,670 (+8%) Source: USDA/ERS

U.S. Beef Exports, Jan-Mar 2017 (Carcass Weight Basis) Mar-17/Feb-17 Mar-17/Mar-16 Year-to-Date Country Percent 1,000 lbs Mexico 16% 17,261 22% Japan 17% 43% 60,632 44% Canada 2% 23% 12,591 19% South Korea 10% 30% 22,917 28% Hong Kong 20% -1% -12,947 -16% China (Taiwan) 13% 25% 5,816 24% Vietnam 6% 178% 2,384 78% Netherlands 55% 3,179 Philippines 9% 86% 2,788 56% Bahamas 8% -27% -345 -13% United Arab Emirates 51% -18% -357 -8% Chile -10% 111 Dominican Republic -4% 565 Indonesia 1329% -42% -1,589 -53% Italy 32% 1,218 46% Other Countries 12% 2,653 Total 14% 116,877 WASDE U.S.: 2015: 2,265 mil lbs 2016: 2.550 (+13%) 2017: 2,725 (+7%) Source: USDA/ERS

U.S. Beef Imports, Jan-Mar 2017 (Carcass Weight Basis) Mar-17/Feb-17 Mar-17/Mar-16 Year-to-Date Country Percent 1,000 lbs Australia 78% -29% -95,455 -40% Canada 23% -2% -14,532 -9% New Zealand 14% -5% -29,744 -15% Brazil 176% 64% 4,462 17% Uruguay 79% -13% -4,210 -16% Mexico 33% 38,696 36% Nicaragua 55% 49% 6,969 28% Costa Rica 123% 68% 308 4% Other Countries 21% 9% -344 -12% Total 35% -1% -93,851 WASDE U.S.: 2015: 3,371 mil lbs 2016: 3,016 (-11%) 2017: 2,745 (-9%) Source: USDA/ERS

Value of Ag Trade Source: USDA-FAS

U.S. Ag Exports Source: USDA-FAS

Agricultural Trade with Canada NAFTA Two-way trade up 393% since NAFTA Source: US Census Bureau, Foreign Trade Statistics, FATUS export aggregations

Agricultural Trade with Mexico NAFTA Two-way trade up 517% since NAFTA Source: US Census Bureau, Foreign Trade Statistics, FATUS export aggregations

Iowa’s state export rankings, 2015 # 2 Soybeans $2.516 billion # 1 Pork $1.988 billion # 1 Feeds $1.506 billion # 1 Corn $1.398 billion # 2 Soybean meal $639 million # 2 Vegetable oils $392 million # 4 Beef $356 million # 2 Hides $293 million # 12 Dairy $122 million Source: USDA Economic Research Service, “State Export Data”

Iowa’s top 10 manufactured exports, 2015 1. Tractors $764 million 2. Herbicides 405 million 3. Aircraft engines/parts 264 million 4. Harvesting machinery 259 million 5. Aluminum alloy plates 250 million 6. Front-end loaders 179 million 7. Special purpose vehicles 152 million 8. Excavators 119 million 9. Ag/Hort/Forestry mach. 116 million 10. Medical instruments 105 million Source: http://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/statistics/state/data/ia.html

World Corn Markets Source: USDA 21 21

Arable Land

Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www2. econ Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: http://www2.econ.iastate.edu/faculty/hart/ Iowa Farm Outlook: http://www2.econ.iastate.edu/ifo/ Ag Decision Maker: http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/