Committee on Climate Change Adrian Gault Chief Economist, Committee on Climate Change

The climate change challenge for freight

Meeting Carbon Budgets: the climate change challenge for freight Adrian Gault, Chief Economist (adrian.gault@theccc.gsi.gov.uk) 13 May 2015

Structure of Presentation The Climate Change Act Performance against existing targets The challenge for transport and freight Next steps

The Climate Change Act The Climate Change Act 2008 A statutory 2050 target for emissions reduction Legally-binding 5-year ‘carbon budgets’ Requirement to develop policies and proposals to meet budgets Establishes the CCC as independent advisor The Committee on Climate Change How fast? Level of 2050 target and carbon budgets How? Sectoral contributions, technologies and policy options Progress? Monitoring: are we on track to meet budgets? Annual progress report to Parliament Who? Advice for UK as well as specific consideration of Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland – including reporting to their governments and carrying out work specific to them Adaptation Sub-Committee Process: Committee of eminent economists and scientists weighs the evidence

Structure of Presentation The Climate Change Act Performance against existing targets The challenge for transport and freight Next steps

The 2050 Challenge 628 MtCO2e International aviation & shipping* UK non-CO2 GHGs Other CO2 Industry (heat & industrial processes) Residential & Commercial heat Domestic transport Electricity Generation * bunker fuels basis 75% cut (= 80% vs. 1990) 160 MtCO2e 2010 emissions 2050 objective

Cost effective path to 2027 has been agreed in line with 2050 target (includes aviation and shipping) Greenhouse gas emissions

Further action likely to be needed to meet 4th Carbon budget, and 2050 target Today 4th carbon budget Climate Change Act: “It is the duty of the Secretary of State to ensure that the net UK carbon account for the year 2050 is at least 80% lower than then 1990 baseline.” Note: figure is non-traded sector only, statutory duty covers trade and non-traded. DEC central scenario based on CCC modelling of DECC evidence, uncertainty around CCC scenario based on DECC uncertainty analysis.

Structure of Presentation The Climate Change Act Performance against existing targets The challenge for transport and freight Next steps

4th Carbon Budget scenario for the transport sector Central scenario in 2030 Cars New car efficiency = 80gCO2/km. EVs = 60% of new cars (c.30% of stock). Smarter Choices reduce car km by 5%. Vans New van efficiency = 120gCO2/km. EVs = 60% of new vans (c.25% of stock). HGVs New HGV efficiency improvement of c.30%. Improved logistics and eco-driving to reduce fuel consumption. Buses Conventional new bus efficiency improvement of c.25%. Hydrogen = 50% of new buses in 2030. Bio-fuels Limited use of sustainable biofuels – c.8% in 2020.

Freight demand-side measures in the 4th Carbon Budget By 2030, a 6.5% reduction in vehicle-kms from: More efficient routing / use of consolidation and distribution centres. Better vehicle utilisation / improved lading / reduction of empty running. Double-deck / high cube trailers. Off-peak travel to avoid congestion. A shift to less carbon-intensive travel modes such as rail. Also a fuel saving of 4% due to eco-driving. We have commissioned a new research project with Centre for Sustainable Road Freight to improve the evidence base in this area and make policy recommendations.

CfSRF project methodology Department for Transport Road Freight Statistics used to establish a baseline: Mix of vehicle types and sectors Kilometres travelled Industry consultation, workshops and literature review to establish uptake of efficiency measures: Vehicle fuel efficiency Current uptake of measures (logistics measures and technology solutions) Future potential uptake of measures Future emissions reduction modelled by considering: Commercial decision making and payback period (capital costs vs fuel savings) Low, medium and high uptake scenarios Non-financial barriers to uptake within the sector

Emerging recommendations – Key themes The project is ongoing and recommendations are yet to be finalised, but a few key themes have emerged: Data: Improving the availability of logistics relevant data should help to facilitate collaboration and improved planning Competition law: It would be helpful to clarify permissible forms of collaboration in the context of competition law Longer, heavier vehicles: Use of longer, heavier vehicles would help to reduce emissions but concerns over safety need to be fully addressed Land use: Land use planning policy should have some consideration of the benefits of urban consolidation centres This list is not exhaustive and specific recommendations have not been finalised.

Structure of Presentation The Climate Change Act Performance against existing targets The challenge for transport and freight Next steps

Key statutory reports from the Committee in 2015 Statutory Progress to Parliament (end June): progress made to meet the existing carbon budgets and the 2050 target what further progress is needed Fifth Carbon Budget advice (by end December): Recommended level of 5th carbon budget (2028-32) Extensive engagement and analysis ongoing: direct links into industry, workshops (business, science, power, scenarios), call for evidence, commissioned research, peer review, engagement with Departments Publications in Autumn leading up to final advice June 2016: deadline for legislation on 5th Carbon budget

Logistics Carbon Reduction Conference 2015