1. 1 Keeping Government on track: Aviation and the Committee on Climate Change Ben Combes 6 May 2009

2. Committee on Climate Change (CCC) Overview 2 Climate Change Act Creates an independent Committee on Climate Change Sets a legally binding target for emissions in 2050 Creates a greenhouse gas budgeting system, capping emissions over 5-year periods starting 2008 Became law on 26 th November 2008 Climate Change Act Creates an independent Committee on Climate Change Sets a legally binding target for emissions in 2050 Creates a greenhouse gas budgeting system, capping emissions over 5-year periods starting 2008 Became law on 26 th November 2008 Climate Change Act has support from all three major parties: The Climate Change Bill passed in the House of Commons by 463 votes to 4. Climate Change Act has support from all three major parties: The Climate Change Bill passed in the House of Commons by 463 votes to 4.

3. Competitiveness Security of supply Fuel poverty Fiscal revenues Scotland, Wales and N. Ireland Ancillary environmental effects Forthcoming reports on Identify implications of proposed budgets for CCC Duties 3 2050 target: 60%, 80%, or other First 3 budgets: ̶Where in 2018-22 (26%+) ̶Trajectory from today How much buy-in of credits allowed Should international aviation & shipping be included CO 2 budgets or all GHGs Recommend in 1 st Report (2008) Annual progress against budgets 4 th Budget period etc Special requests e.g. Aviation

4. The Scale of the Challenge 4 Source: UK National Atmospheric Emissions Inventory (2008).

5. A path to 2050 5 Source: NAEI (2008). IA&S: remain 5% below the avg 2004-06 emissions to 2050 Non-CO 2 : fall by 70% relative to 1990 levels UK Domestic CO 2 would have to be cut by 89% relative to 1990 to achieve overall 80% GHG reduction IA&S: remain 5% below the avg 2004-06 emissions to 2050 Non-CO 2 : fall by 70% relative to 1990 levels UK Domestic CO 2 would have to be cut by 89% relative to 1990 to achieve overall 80% GHG reduction

6. 1 st Report – Aviation Recommendations 6 If unchecked, global aviation could reach 2.4 GtCO 2 in 2050 (15- 20% of all CO 2 permitted). International aviation (IA) needs to be covered by an international agreement. Global EU UK In the absence of a global deal the planned inclusion of aviation (domestic and international) in the EU ETS makes sense and there are few disadvantages to European unilateral action. Ideally, IA included in UK budgets for completeness, but complexities relating to EU ETS admin and bunker fuels. Therefore, explicit inclusion not recommended. As aviation is in EU 20% and 30% targets, UK budgets implicitly take into account international aviation emissions. Propose that the CCC reports annually on UK trends in international aviation emissions, their climate impact, developments in, and the success of, abatement efforts and appropriate policy levers.

7. 7 Global unconstrained demand growth 4-5% pa to 2050. Efficiency QinetiQs analysis showed that aircraft in 2025 could be 40-50% more fuel efficient compared to a 2006 aircraft. This improvement includes evolutionary airframe and engine technologies as well as better operations. Consistent with a 1.5% pa fleet efficiency improvement. Global Demand growth Biofuels/modal shift Non-CO 2 climate effects Our analysis noted the potential for biofuels in reducing life- cycle emissions, but did not quantify the potential. The scope of our analysis did not include the potential for modal shift from air to rail. The report noted the importance of non-CO 2 effects and that these should be accounted for in some way. However, a scientific understanding of these processes is still developing and there is currently no agreement on the appropriate policy metric. 1 st Report – Aviation Results

8. In light of the Governments decision to set a UK target to reduce aviation carbon emissions in 2050 below the level of 2005, the Government has invited the Committee: Reporting to the Secretaries of State for Transport and for Energy and Climate Change by December 2009. to assess UK trends in international aviation emissions (using a range of appropriate methodologies); to advise the Government on the basis for measurement for the UK target for aviation emissions in 2050; to assess the scope for reductions, including from improvements in technology and the effect of appropriate policy levers; and the implications of further aviation expansion beyond 2020. In addition, to advise the Government on an appropriate structure and/or international target regime to support a global deal. to assess UK trends in international aviation emissions (using a range of appropriate methodologies); to advise the Government on the basis for measurement for the UK target for aviation emissions in 2050; to assess the scope for reductions, including from improvements in technology and the effect of appropriate policy levers; and the implications of further aviation expansion beyond 2020. In addition, to advise the Government on an appropriate structure and/or international target regime to support a global deal. Aviation Report – Terms of Reference 8

9. UK Aviation Emissions – DfT forecast 9 Source: DfT (2009).

10. UK Aviation Emissions - Sustainable Aviation Roadmap 10 Source: Sustainable Aviation (2008).

11. Aviation Report – work programme The work programme will comprise four parts: 1.Developing scenarios for UK aviation demand and emissions. 2.Analysing potential for improvements in carbon efficiency while continuing to use fossil fuel based aviation kerosene. 3. Assessing scope for the use of biofuels and hydrogen in aviation. 4.Considering high-level aspects of a global framework for aviation. 11

12. 12 Aviation Report – main consultancy projects 2. Modal shift from air to rail 1. Aviation demand and emissions 3. Aviation biofuels MVA Consultancy (Project started 30 th March) MVA Consultancy (Project started 30 th March) Steer Davies Gleave (Project started 21 st April) Steer Davies Gleave (Project started 21 st April) E4tech (Project started 1 st May) E4tech (Project started 1 st May)

13. Technology Considerations 13 Technology Readiness In-service provision Fleet Rollover 1 1 2 2 3 3 Time % reduction in CO 2 per pkm Deploy technology into new aircraft across seat classes How quickly technology is deployed, older aircraft retired

14. Contact Details 14 Thank you ben.combes@theccc.gsi.gov.uk Please see new section of the CCC website: http://www.theccc.org.uk/reports/aviation-report Please see new section of the CCC website: http://www.theccc.org.uk/reports/aviation-report