1. Tuesday, 03 October 2017
The UK’s Climate Change Act: Driving the transition to a low-carbon economy
Owen Bellamy

2. Driving change & the Climate Change Act
2050 Emissions Target
A goal 1
Carbon Budgets
A pathway 2
Requirement that Government brings forward policies
A toolkit 3
Committee on Climate Change to monitor progress and suggest changes
A monitoring
framework 4

3. 1. The 2050 target: A change in the terms of the debate in the UK
Before the Climate Change Act a question was: should the UK reduce emissions?
Evidence:
World warming from man-made emissions
Cheaper to reduce emissions than face damages
Needs 50% global reduction in emissions for 2°C: 2 tCO2e per capita in 2050
Achievable globally and in UK based on known technologies
Now the UK has a statutory target of at least an 80% reduction in UK emissions by relative to The question is how should the UK reduce emissions?

4. The scale of the 2050 challenge
67% below 2016
80% below 1990
Power
Industry
Buildings
Transport
Agriculture & LULUCF
Waste
F-gases
IAS*
*International aviation and shipping

5. We expect different sectors to progress at different rates
Scenarios identify low-cost ways to cut emissions and key options that need development

6. Some key takeaways from 2050 scenarios in light of uncertainties
Decarbonised electricity
Strategic priority
Don’t build new coal
Avoiding lock-in
CCS, bioenergy, electric vehicles
Developing options
Industry, agriculture, aviation, CO2 removal
Research questions
Develop options, not wait-and-see
Approach to uncertainty

7. Driving change & the Climate Change Act
2050 Emissions Target
A goal 1
Carbon Budgets
A pathway 2
Requirement that Government brings forward policies
A toolkit 3
Committee on Climate Change to monitor progress and suggest changes
A monitoring
framework 4

8. 2. Carbon budgets are stepping stones to 2050 target
Carbon budgets and the cost-effective path to the 2050 target

9. Flexibility in carbon budgets
Technology neutral
5-years, not 1
Carbon credits
Can be changed if (and only if) circumstances change

10. The Act requires the Committee to balance a range of factors, and for Gvmt to legislate the budget

11. The Committee draws on a wide range of evidence in developing its advice

12. Strong evidence-based underpinning…
Sectors: scenarios, costs, required policy
Power
Buildings
Industry
Transport
Agriculture
Waste &
F-gases
Climate science
International & EU
2050 Target
Carbon Budgets
Security
of supply
Fuel poverty
Competi
-tiveness
Fiscal
impacts
Economic
Air quality & health
Budget impacts

13. …that is transparent to all stakeholders…

14. …and has led to widespread business support

15. Driving change & the Climate Change Act
2050 Emissions Target
A goal 1
Carbon Budgets
A pathway 2
Requirement that Government brings forward policies
A toolkit 3
Committee on Climate Change to monitor progress and suggest changes
A monitoring
framework 4

16. 3. Policies have been introduced across the economy to meet carbon budgets
“if you believe in markets you have to believe in market failures”
Reduce emissions
Break down barriers
Avoid lock-in & prepare for the future
EU ETS cap and UK carbon price floor
EU car CO2 standards
No coal post-2025 & renewables support
New market for low-carbon generation
Products standards
Funding for Electric Vehicles
Landfill Tax
Renewable Heat Incentive

17. Driving change & the Climate Change Act
2050 Emissions Target
A goal 1
Carbon Budgets
A pathway 2
Requirement that Government brings forward policies
A toolkit 3
Committee on Climate Change to monitor progress and suggest changes
A monitoring
framework 4

18. 4. CCC appointed to recommend targets and monitor progress
Lord Deben
Baroness Brown
Professor Sir Brian Hoskins
Professor Jim Skea
Professor Nick Chater
Professor Corinne Le Quéré
Paul Johnson
Dr Rebecca Heaton
Plus ~25 full-time
secretariat

19. The role of the CCC Statutory advice on 2050 target & carbon budgets
Recommend targets
Towards targets & in key indicators to meet them
Track progress
Advice on National Adaptation Programme
Adaptation
Technical experts, not interest groups
Own research budget
Independent & evidence-based
Reports & analysis made public
Engage NGOs, business, academics, experts
Transparent and open

20. The UK has succeeded in cutting emissions while growing the economy

21. UK GHG emissions by sector (1990-2016)
Recent progress dominated by power sector but 5CB requires reductions across all sectors
UK GHG emissions by sector ( )
average
Power -16%
Waste -9%
Rest -1%

22. Policy gap to fifth carbon budget
Our assessment is that the policy gap is 100 MtCO2e – around half the reduction required in 2030
Policy gap to fifth carbon budget
Range for Government projections
New policies needed to meet carbon budgets

23. What is in the policy gap?
2016 to 2030
37% reduction in total UK emissions
Power
-61%
Transport
-44%
Buildings
-23%
Industry
-20%
Other
-37%
2020 renewables
Coal closure
Offshore wind
Hinkley
Biofuels
gCO2/km to 2020
EV support
Boiler Regs
Building Regs
Products Policy
ECO
RHI
EU ETS, CCL
Afforestation
Waste policy
F-gas regulation
+100 TWh low-C
Flexibility
CCS strategy
g/km after 2020
HGVs
Demand-side
Aviation
New homes
Energy Efficiency
2020s low-C heat
H2 strategy
Roadmaps->Action
Agriculture F
Low-risk policies
At-risk policies
Policy gap

24. The policy gap must be closed whatever the outcome of Brexit negotiations

25. Policy impact as an academic?
Ask the right question
Where are the (policy) knowledge gaps?
Get the right level of detail
80/20 rule
Get the comms right
Focus on key points
Make it available & accessible!

26. www.theccc.org.uk | @theCCCuk
Thank you!
| @theCCCuk

27. Some closing observations
Government policies needed to drive change from businesses and consumers
Legislative framework should aim to reduce policy risk
Need to balance certainty with flexibility
Transparent approach based on analysis and evidence key to CCC success
Effective policy tackles multiple market failures; needs regular review and updating