1. Reducing emissions in Scotland
2017 progress report to Parliament
Professor Jim Skea and Adrian Gault

2. Aim of the report The progress report assesses:
The progress that Scotland has made against the targets set out in the Climate Change (Scotland) Act
The draft Climate Change Plan, published by the Scottish Government in 2017

3. Progress in reducing emissions
Annual targets have been met and Scotland is on track to meet the target:
The 2015 net target was met, despite a 2% increase in Net emissions were 41% below 1990 emissions
Actual emissions fell by 3% in and were 38% below 1990 emissions, compared with a reduction of 35% for the UK as a whole
Scotland is on track to meet the interim target for at least a 42% reduction in net emissions by 2020

4. Emission reductions are driven by the power sector
Emissions reductions were largely driven by decarbonisation of the power sector
following the closure of the last coal plant in Scotland, Longannet, emissions will have fallen again sharply for 2016
Further reduction potential in electricity generation will be limited
More effort is needed in sectors other than power, especially in sectors such as transport, agriculture and heat for non-residential buildings

5. Key messages - sector performance
Good performance in a number of key areas
Renewable electricity
Community Energy targets
Reducing energy consumption across all sectors
Energy efficiency
Infrastructure for electric vehicles is improving
Challenges remain in other areas
Increasing emissions in buildings, transport and industry sectors
Fuel poverty: progress, but target not met
No real progress in agriculture, focus on voluntary targets
Insufficient progress in meeting waste recycling and composting targets

6. The draft Climate Change Plan (dCCP)
The final CCP needs to be strong enough to put Scotland on a credible path to meeting targets
We assess dCCP both against whether it puts Scotland on a credible path to meet the current legislated target as well as the new proposed more ambitious targets (90% reduction on 1990 actual emissions)

7. Balance of effort across sectors
The dCCP has a different balance of emissions reductions across sectors to that in the CCC’s High Ambition scenario
Transport and forestry sector emissions are considerably higher than in the CCC scenario
This imposes a greater burden upon other sectors, especially buildings
We recommend the balance between sectors is reconsidered in the final plan
Note on negative emissions in power sector:
The draft Plan has emissions in the power sector going negative from the late 2020s, as a result of combining bio-methane grid injection with gas CCS power plants. The plan refers to this as ‘bioenergy production and CCS’, which is slightly different from ‘bioenergy with CCS’. They don’t plan to have bioenergy power stations fitted with CCS, they plan to inject bio-methane into the grid and separately have CCS on gas power plants.  
The CCC scenarios don’t differ in this – we also include bio-methane injections, but we allocate the bio-methane to the buildings and industry sectors, resulting in positive overall power sector emissions, as a result of small residual emissions from the (fossil) CCS plants. The difference in power sectors emissions is therefore due to how savings from bio-methane have been allocated rather than any substantive underlying difference.

8. Ambition on electric vehicles
The level of ultra-low-emission vehicle sales in the draft plan is much lower than under the CCC scenario
This puts the ability of the transport sector to contribute to sufficient decarbonisation by at risk
We welcome the Scottish Government's recent announcement on a more ambitious, earlier phase-out date for conventional petrol and diesel vehicles
We recommend that the final plan reflects this new ambition

9. Low-carbon heat The plan’s scenario for heat decarbonisation is highly challenging
The assumed share of low-carbon heat (80% of total heat by 2032) is very unlikely to be feasible
The CCC recommends that the final version of the plan relies on low-carbon sources providing no more than 50% of heat by 2032
Even then, earlier action is needed to meet ambitious future plans
the draft plan envisages no action until 2025
achieving ambitious levels of low- carbon heat requires immediate action, rather than waiting until 2025

10. Forestry Good ambition, but insufficient progress:
the plan's ambition to increase tree planting rates to 15,000 ha per year by the mid-2020s is positive
planting rates need to align with the ambition
Out-dated analysis in dCCP:
the plan has a substantially higher level of forestry emissions in 2032 than the CCC’s scenario, due to use of out-dated analysis
This analysis should be revisited for the final version of the plan

11. Firm new policies are needed in the final plan
The dCCP contains little beyond existing policy and commitments, although there have been some subsequent high-level announcements
Without firm new policies, the reductions in Scottish emissions seen in recent years are unlikely to continue into the 2020s
The final version of Scotland’s Climate Change Plan should also build as fully as possible on the UK Government’s Clean Growth Strategy, which will set out how UK emissions targets to 2032 will be met

12. www.theccc.org.uk | @theCCCuk
Thank you
| @theCCCuk