Population Change in The United States, Texas and the Houston Area: Implications for the Socioeconomic Future Population Change in The United States, Texas and the Houston Area: Implications for the Socioeconomic Future Steve Murdock Hobby Center for the Study of Texas Allyn and Gladys Cline Professor of Sociology Rice University Presentation to: Memorial Drive Presbyterian 55+ Houston, Texas September 14, 2015

Total Population and Percent Population Change in Texas and the United States, Total Population Percent Change YearTexasU.S. TexasU.S ,592 23,191, ,215 31,443, ,579 39,818, ,591,749 50,155, ,235,527 62,947, ,048,710 75,994, ,896,542 91,972, ,663, ,710, ,824, ,775, ,414, ,669, ,711, ,697, ,579, ,323, ,196, ,302, ,229, ,545, ,986, ,709, ,851, ,421, ,145, ,745, Source: Derived from the U.S. Census Bureau decennial census April 1 of reported year.

3 Estimates of the Unauthorized Immigrant Population in the United States (in Millions), Source: Passel, Jeffrey and D’Vera Cohn, “Unauthorized Immigrant Totals Rise in 7 States, Fall in 14,” Washington, D.C. Pew Hispanic Center, November 18, 2014.

4 Estimates of the Unauthorized Immigrant Population in Texas (in Millions), Source: Passel, Jeffrey and D’Vera Cohn, “Unauthorized Immigrant Totals Rise in 7 States, Fall in 14,” Washington, D.C.Pew Hispanic Center, November 18, 2014.

Change State 2000 Population 2010 PopulationNumericPercent United States281,421,906308,745,53827,323, Texas20,851,82025,145,5614,293, California33,871,64837,253,9563,382, Florida15,982,37818,801,3102,818, Georgia8,186,4539,687,6531,501, North Carolina8,049,3139,535,4831,486, Arizona5,130,6326,392,0171,261, Virginia7,078,5158,001,024922, Washington5,894,1216,724,540830, Colorado4,301,2615,029,196727, Nevada1,998,2572,700,551702, Ten States in the United States with the Largest Numeric Population Increase Population values as of April 1, 2000 and April 1, Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Ten Largest States in the United States Ranked by Population Size in 2014 State April 1, 2000 April 1, 2010 July 1, 2014 Change Change Numeric% % United States281,421,906308,745,538318,857,05627,323, ,111, California33,871,64837,253,95638,802,5003,382,308101,548, Texas20,851,82025,145,56126,956,9584,293, ,811, Florida15,982,37818,801,31019,893,2972,818, ,091, New York18,976,45719,378,10219,746,227401, , Illinois12,419,29312,830,63212,880,580411, , Pennsylvania12,281,05412,702,37912,787,209421, , Ohio11,353,14011,536,50411,594,163183, , Georgia8,186,4539,687,65310,097,3431,501, , North Carolina8,049,3139,535,4839,943,9641,486, , Michigan9,938,4449,883,6409,909,877-54, , Source: U.S. Census Bureau.

Ten States in the United States with the Largest Numeric Population Increase, State April 1, 2000 April 1, 2010 July 1, 2014 Change Change Numeric% % United States281,421,906308,745,538318,857,05627,323, ,111, Texas20,851,82025,145,56126,956,9584,293, ,811, California33,871,64837,253,95638,802,5003,382, ,548, Florida15,982,37818,801,31019,893,2972,818, ,091, Georgia8,186,4539,687,65310,097,3431,501, , North Carolina8,049,3139,535,4839,943,9641,486, , New York18,976,45719,378,10219,746,227401, , Arizona5,130,6326,392,0176,731,4841,261, , Washington5,894,1216,724,5407,061,530830, , Colorado4,301,2615,029,1965,355,866727, , Virginia7,078,5158,001,0248,326,289922, , Source: U.S. Census Bureau.

Ten States in the United States with the Largest Percentage Population Increase, State April 1, 2000 April 1, 2010 July 1, 2014 Change Change Numeric% % United States281,421,906308,745,538318,857,05627,323, ,111, North Dakota642,200672,591739,48230, , Texas20,851,82025,145,56126,956,9584,293, ,811, Colorado4,301,2615,029,1965,355,866727, , Utah2,233,1692,763,8852,942,902530, , Florida15,982,37818,801,31019,893,2972,818, ,091, Arizona5,130,6326,392,0176,731,4841,261, , Nevada1,998,2572,700,5512,839,099702, , Washington5,894,1216,724,5407,061,530830, , South Dakota754,844814,180853,17559, , South Carolina4,012,0124,625,3644,832,482613, , Source: U.S. Census

Twenty MSAs with the Largest Numeric Change, Population Change Change Place Numeric % % Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX 5,920,416 6,333,809 6,490, , , Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX 6,426,214 6,823,113 6,954, , , New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA 19,567,410 20,002,086 20,092,883 90, , Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA 12,828,837 13,175,849 13,262,220 86, , Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV 5,636,232 5,967,176 6,033,737 66, , Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL 5,564,635 5,863,458 5,929,819 66, , Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA 5,286,728 5,525,432 5,614,323 88, , Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ 4,192,887 4,404,129 4,489,109 84, , San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward, CA 4,335,391 4,529,654 4,594,060 64, , Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA 3,439,809 3,613,621 3,671,478 57, , Austin-Round Rock, TX 1,716,289 1,885,803 1,943,299 57, , Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA 4,224,851 4,390,262 4,441,890 51, , Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, CO 2,543,482 2,699,750 2,754,258 54, , Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL 2,134,411 2,271,083 2,321,418 50, , San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX 2,142,508 2,282,201 2,328,652 46, , Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH 4,552,402 4,698,049 4,732,161 34, , San Diego-Carlsbad, CA 3,095,313 3,222,558 3,263,431 40, , Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC 2,217,012 2,337,339 2,380,314 42, , Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI 3,348,859 3,461,434 3,495,176 33, ,317 4 Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL 2,783,243 2,874,154 2,915,582 41, ,

Twenty Places with the Largest Numeric Change, Population Change Change Place Numeric% % New York, NY 8,175,133 8,438,379 8,491,079 52, , Houston, TX 2,099,451 2,203,806 2,239,558 35, , Los Angeles, CA 3,792,621 3,897,940 3,928,864 30, , Austin, TX 790, , ,791 25, , San Antonio, TX 1,327,407 1,411,766 1,436,697 24, , Phoenix, AZ 1,445,632 1,512,442 1,537,058 24, , Dallas, TX 1,197,816 1,260,725 1,281,047 20, , Charlotte, NC 731, , ,958 16, , San Diego, CA 1,307,402 1,359,844 1,381,069 21, , Fort Worth, TX 741, , ,238 18, , San Jose, CA 945,942 1,003,821 1,015,785 11, , Denver, CO 600, , ,862 15, , Seattle, WA 608, , ,342 14, , Washington, DC 601, , ,893 9, , Columbus, Ohio 787, , ,957 12, , San Francisco, CA 805, , ,469 11, , Nashville-Davidson, TN 601, , ,014 9, , Oklahoma City, OK 579, , ,602 9, , New Orleans, LA 343, , ,320 5, ,

Components of Population Change for Texas, April 1, June 30, 2013 Total Change: 1,295,324

Components of Population Change for Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land MSA, April 1, 2010 – June 30, 2013 Total Change: 392,702 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2013 Population Estimates

Components of Population Change for Harris County, April 1, 2010 – June 30, 2013 Total Change: 245,425

Population, Population Change, and Proportion of the Total Population by Race/Ethnicity for Texas, 2000 and 2010 PopulationPopulation ChangePercent of Total Population Race/Ethnicity* NumericPercent Percent of Total Change NH White10,933,31311,397,345464, Hispanic (All Races)6,669,6669,460,9212,791, NH Black2,364,2552,886,825522, NH Asian554,445948,426393, NH Other330,141452,044121, Total20,851,82025,145,5614,293, *Hispanic includes persons of all races. All other race/ethnicity categories shown here are Non-Hispanic. Non-Hispanic Other includes persons identifying themselves as Non-Hispanic American Indian or Alaska Native, Non-Hispanic Native Hawaiian or Pacific Islander, Non- Hispanic Some Other Race, or Non-Hispanic and a combination of two or more races. Source: U.S. Census 2000 and 2010, P.L Prepared by the Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University

Population, Population Change, and Proportion of the Population 18 Years and Older by Race/Ethnicity for Texas, 2000 and 2010 PopulationPopulation ChangePercent of Total Population Race/Ethnicity* NumericPercent Percent of Total Change NH White8,426,1669,074,684648, Hispanic (All Races)4,282,9016,143,1441,860, NH Black1,631,4482,076,282444, NH Asian415,219716,968301, NH Other209,327268,65959, Total14,965,06118,279,7373,314, *Hispanic includes persons of all races. All other race/ethnicity categories shown here are Non-Hispanic. Non-Hispanic Other includes persons identifying themselves as Non-Hispanic American Indian or Alaska Native, Non-Hispanic Native Hawaiian or Pacific Islander, Non- Hispanic Some Other Race, or Non-Hispanic and a combination of two or more races. Source: U.S. Census 2000 and 2010, P.L Prepared by the Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University

Population, Population Change, and Proportion of the Population Under 18 Years by Race/Ethnicity for Texas, 2000 and 2010 PopulationPopulation ChangePercent of Total Population Race/Ethnicity* NumericPercent Percent of Total Change NH White2,507,1472,322, , Hispanic (All Races)2,386,7653,317,777931, NH Black732,807810,54377, NH Asian139,226231,45892, NH Other120,814183,38562, Total5,886,7596,865,824979, *Hispanic includes persons of all races. All other race/ethnicity categories shown here are Non-Hispanic. Non-Hispanic Other includes persons identifying themselves as Non-Hispanic American Indian or Alaska Native, Non-Hispanic Native Hawaiian or Pacific Islander, Non- Hispanic Some Other Race, or Non-Hispanic and a combination of two or more races. Source: U.S. Census 2000 and 2010, P.L Prepared by the Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University

Population, Population Change, and Proportion of the Total Population by Race/Ethnicity for the United States, 2000 and 2010 PopulationPopulation ChangePercent of Total Population Race/Ethnicity* NumericPercent Percent of Total Change NH White194,552,774196,817,5522,264, Hispanic (All Races)35,305,81850,477,59415,171, NH Black33,947,83737,685,8483,738, NH Asian10,123,16914,465,1244,341, NH Other7,492,3089,299,4201,807, Total281,421,906308,745,53827,323, *Hispanic includes persons of all races. All other race/ethnicity categories shown here are Non-Hispanic. Non-Hispanic Other includes persons identifying themselves as Non-Hispanic American Indian or Alaska Native, Non-Hispanic Native Hawaiian or Pacific Islander, Non- Hispanic Some Other Race, or Non-Hispanic and a combination of two or more races. Source: U.S. Census 2000 and 2010, P.L Prepared by the Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University

Population, Population Change, and Proportion of the Population Under 18 Years by Race/Ethnicity for the United States, 2000 and 2010 PopulationPopulation ChangePercent of Total Population Race/Ethnicity* NumericPercent Percent of Total Change NH White44,027,08739,716,562-4,310, Hispanic (All Races)12,342,25917,130,8914,788, NH Black10,610,26410,362, , NH Asian2,420,2743,176,129755, NH Other2,893,9283,795,702901, Total72,293,81274,181,4671,887, *Hispanic includes persons of all races. All other race/ethnicity categories shown here are Non-Hispanic. Non-Hispanic Other includes persons identifying themselves as Non-Hispanic American Indian or Alaska Native, Non-Hispanic Native Hawaiian or Pacific Islander, Non- Hispanic Some Other Race, or Non-Hispanic and a combination of two or more races. Source: U.S. Census 2000 and 2010, P.L Prepared by the Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University

Population, Population Change, and Proportion of the Total Population by Race/Ethnicity for the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington Metropolitan Statistical Area, Texas 2000 and 2010 Population Population Change Percent of Total Change Racial Group NumericPercent Percent of Total Change NH* White3,081,7343,248, , NH Black707,490941, , Hispanic1,121,4421,758, , NH Asian & Other293,460477, , Total5,204,1266,426,214 1,222, Source: U.S. Census 2010, P.L Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) as defined by OMB in *NH refers to nonHispanic values for categories labeled NH are only for the nonHispanic persons in each race category. Hispanic includes Hispanics of all races.

Population, Population Change, and Proportion of the Total Population Under Age 18 by Race/Ethnicity for the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington Metropolitan Statistical Area, 2000 and 2010 Population Population Change Percent of Total Change Racial Group NumericPercent Percent of Total Change NH* White735,112699, , NH Black227,185277,206 50, Hispanic410,193661, , NH Asian & Other88,486147,481 58, Total1,460,9761,785, , Source: U.S. Census 2010, P.L Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) as defined by OMB in *NH refers to nonHispanic values for categories labeled NH are only for the nonHispanic persons in each race category. Hispanic includes Hispanics of all races.

Population, Population Change, and Proportion of the Total Population by Race/Ethnicity for the Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land Metropolitan Statistical Area, 2000 and 2010 Population Population Change Percent of Total Change Racial Group NumericPercent Percent of Total Change NH* White2,256,8572,340,268 83, NH Black781,159996, , Hispanic1,352,3932,096, , NH Asian & Other302,752487, , Total4,693,1615,920,416 1,227, Source: U.S. Census 2010, P.L Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) as defined by OMB in *NH refers to nonHispanic values for categories labeled NH are only for the nonHispanic persons in each race category. Hispanic includes Hispanics of all races.

Population, Population Change, and Proportion of the Total Population Under 18 by Race/Ethnicity for the Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land Metropolitan Statistical Area, 2000 and 2010 Population Population Change Percent of Total Change Racial Group NumericPercent Percent of Total Change NH* White542,563494, , NH Black244,702282,991 38, Hispanic489,495744, , NH Asian & Other85,634134,692 49, Total1,362,3941,655, , Source: U.S. Census 2010, P.L Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) as defined by OMB in *NH refers to nonHispanic values for categories labeled NH are only for the nonHispanic persons in each race category. Hispanic includes Hispanics of all races.

POPULATION CHARACTERISTICS AND SOCIOECONOMIC CONDITIONS

Total and Percent of the Population in Poverty and Median Household Income by Race/Ethnicity for the United States, 1999 and 2010 Race/ Ethnicity Population in Poverty % Median Household Income* Population in Poverty % Median Household Income* NH White16,026,5428.3$59,22121,831, $53,988 Hispanic (All Races)7,797, $44,07912,583, $40,165 NH Black7,970, $38,54110,270, $33,568 NH Asian1,241, $68,0201,806, $67,142 Total33,899, $54,966 47,330, $50,046 *In 2010 Dollars. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000 Summary File 4, American Community Survey Not all race/ethnic groups are shown here but are included in the total. Prepared by the Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University

Total and Percent of the Population in Poverty and Median Household Income by Race/Ethnicity for Texas, 1999 and 2010 Race/ Ethnicity Population in Poverty % Median Household Income* Population in Poverty % Median Household Income* NH White856,0557.9$61,5421,111,2519.5$59,517 Hispanic (All Races)1,658, $39,1012,555, $37,087 Black515, $38,378717, $35,674 Asian63, $65,633120, $64,191 Total3,117, $52,260 4,521, $48,615 *In 2010 Dollars. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000 Summary File 4, American Community Survey Not all race/ethnic groups are shown here but are included in the total. Prepared by the Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University

Total and Percent of the Population in Poverty and Median Household Income by Race/Ethnicity for Dallas-Forth Worth-Arlington MSA, Texas, 1999 and 2010 Race/ Ethnicity Population in Poverty % Median Household Income* Population in Poverty % Median Household Income* NH White 168,3995.5$72,291234,2447.3$66,611 Hispanic (All Races) 219, $46,782419, $40,083 NH Black 134, $43,070220, $37,539 Asian 19, $72,04937, $70,006 Total 547, $63, , $54,449 *In 2010 Dollars Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000 Summary File 4, American Community Survey Prepared by the Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University

Total and Percent of the Population in Poverty and Median Household Income by Race/Ethnicity for Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown MSA, Texas, 1999 and 2010 Race/ Ethnicity Population in Poverty % Median Household Income* Population in Poverty % Median Household Income* NH White 142,9066.2$73,353167,5937.1$72,480 Hispanic (All Races) 294, $43,087533, $40,972 NH Black 167, $41,210223, $39,638 Asian 25, $67,70250, $67,333 Total 635, $58, , $53,942 *In 2010 Dollars Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000 Summary File 4, American Community Survey Prepared by the Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University

Percent of the Population Age 25 and Older in the United States and Texas with Less Than High School Diploma/GED by Race/Ethnicity, 2010

Educational Attainment for the Population Age 25 and over by Race/Ethnicity, Dallas, Texas, 2010 Race/ Ethnicity* Population Age 25 and Older Less than High School High School Diploma Some College or Associates Degree Bachelor Degree or More NH White268, NH Black184, Hispanic269, Asian24, NH Other12, Total759, *Hispanic includes persons of all races. All other race/ethnicity categories shown here are Non-Hispanic. Non- Hispanic Other includes persons identifying themselves as Non-Hispanic American Indian or Alaska Native, Non- Hispanic Native Hawaiian or Pacific Islander, Non-Hispanic Some Other Race, or Non-Hispanic and a combination of two or more races. Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 American Community Survey Prepared by the Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University

Educational Attainment for the Population Age 25 and over by Race/Ethnicity, Houston, Texas, 2010 Race/ Ethnicity* Population Age 25 and Older Less than High School High School Diploma Some College or Associates Degree Bachelor Degree or More NH White419, NH Black308, Hispanic501, Asian91, NH Other14, Total1,337, *Hispanic includes persons of all races. All other race/ethnicity categories shown here are Non-Hispanic. Non- Hispanic Other includes persons identifying themselves as Non-Hispanic American Indian or Alaska Native, Non- Hispanic Native Hawaiian or Pacific Islander, Non-Hispanic Some Other Race, or Non-Hispanic and a combination of two or more races. Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 American Community Survey Prepared by the Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University

PROJECTIONS

U.S. Population by Race and Hispanic Origin: Census 2010 and Projected for 2020 to 2060 Year (Resident population as of July 1, Number in thousands) Non-Hispanic Hispanic (any race) Total White aloneBlack aloneAsian alone All other races ,81837,68614,4659,29950,478308, ,31241,77618,24610,77863,784333, ,81845,45222,04413,50278,655358, ,88748,76925,88116,60394,876380, ,33451,98829,58320,166111,732399, ,95255,30233,10624,128128,780420,268 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 Census and 2012 National Projections

Numeric Change in U.S. Population by Race and Hispanic Origin: 2010 to 2060 (in millions)

Change in the U.S. Population by Race and Hispanic Origin: 2010 to 2060

Age Distribution of the U.S. Population: Census 2010 and Projected 2020 to 2060 Age Group (Percent of total resident population as of July 1) Under 5 years to 19 years to 44 years to 64 years years and over Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 Census and 2012 National Projections

Percent By Race and Hispanic Origin by Selected Age Groups for the U.S. Population : 2010 Age Group Percent of each group's resident population as of April 1 Non-Hispanic Hispanic (any race) Total White alone Black alone Asian alone All other races Total Under 5 years to 17 years to 24 years to 44 years to 64 years years and over Elderly Age Groups 65 to 74 years to 84 years years and over Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 Census

Projected Percent By Race and Hispanic Origin by Selected Age Groups for the U.S. Population: 2060 Age Group Percent of each group's resident population as of April 1 Non-Hispanic Hispanic (any race)Total White alone Black alone Asian alone All other races Total Under 5 years to 17 years to 24 years to 44 years to 64 years years and over Elderly Age Groups 65 to 74 years to 84 years years and over Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2012 National Projections

Population in Texas by Race/Ethnicity in 2010 and Projections of the Population in Texas by Race/Ethnicity from 2020 to 2050 Under Alternative Assumptions of Age and Race/Ethnicity-Specific Rates of Net Migration 47 YearNH 1 WhiteNH BlackHispanic NH Asian & Other 2 Total Assuming Zero Net Migration ,397,3452,886,8259,460,9211,400,47025,145, ,576,5953,122,63711,137,6721,536,69327,373, ,501,0203,280,94112,869,7531,638,24929,289, ,182,5763,355,50014,570,8511,714,23230,823, ,766,6223,366,52816,191,1501,728,20632,052,506 Assuming Net Migration Equal to One-Half of ,397,3452,886,8259,460,9211,400,47025,145, ,752,5303,295,19812,031,0591,825,13028,903, ,850,1803,658,99715,082,0582,309,76332,900, ,676,1573,951,90918,489,8032,881,52536,999, ,376,5764,182,15522,268,3903,483,17841,310,299 Assuming Net Migration Equal to ,397,3452,886,8259,460,9211,400,47025,145, ,931,8153,477,92813,003,1592,170,40930,583, ,211,6644,080,45317,702,1323,288,53637,282, ,194,1514,653,72523,514,9744,953,86145,316, ,024,9135,195,86130,701,2087,283,54855,205,530 1 NH refers to Non-Hispanic; values shown are only for the non-Hispanic persons in each race category. Hispanic includes Hispanics of all races. 2 NH Asian & Other category includes non-Hispanic persons who identify themselves as belonging to two or more race groups.

Percent of the Population by Race/Ethnicity in 2010 and Projected Through 2050 Under Alternative Assumptions of Age and Race/Ethnicity-Specific Rates of Net Migration for the State of Texas Year NH 1 WhiteNH BlackHispanic NH Asian & Other 2 Total Assuming Zero Net Migration (Scenario 0.0) Assuming Net Migration Equal to One-Half of (Scenario 0.5) Assuming Net Migration Equal to (Scenario 1.0) NH refers to Non-Hispanic; values shown are only for the non-Hispanic persons in each race category. Hispanic includes Hispanics of all races. 2 NH Asian & Other category includes non-Hispanic persons who identify themselves as belonging to two or more race groups.

Percent of the Population by Age Group and Race/Ethnicity in 2010 and Projected Percent of the Population by Age Group and Race/Ethnicity from 2030 to 2050 Assuming Age and Race/Ethnicity-Specific Net Migration Equal to for the State of Texas (Scenario 1.0) 49 AgeNH 1 WhiteNH BlackHispanic NH Asian & Other 2 Total 2010 < < < NH refers to Non-Hispanic; values shown are only for the non-Hispanic persons in each race category. Hispanic includes Hispanics of all races. 2 NH Asian & Other category includes non-Hispanic persons who identify themselves as belonging to two or more race groups.

Percent of Age Group by Race/Ethnicity in 2010 and Projected Percent of Age Group by Race/Ethnicity from 2030 to 2050 Assuming Age and Race/Ethnicity-Specific Net Migration Equal to for the State of Texas (Scenario 1.0) 50 AgeNH 1 WhiteNH BlackHispanic NH Asian & Other 2 Total 2010 < < < NH refers to Non-Hispanic; values shown are only for the non-Hispanic persons in each race category. Hispanic includes Hispanics of all races. 2 NH Asian & Other category includes non-Hispanic persons who identify themselves as belonging to two or more race groups.

51 Percent of Persons 65 Years of Age and Older in Texas Counties,

Percent of Persons 65 Years of Age and Older in Texas Counties, 2050* 52 * Assuming rates of net migration equal to

Population by Race/Ethnicity in 2010 and Projections of the Population by Race/Ethnicity from 2020 to 2050 Under Alternative Scenarios of Age/Sex and Race/Ethnicity-Specific Net Migration for Harris County YearNH White NH Black Hispanic NH Asian & Other Total ,349,646754,2581,671,540317,0154,092,459 Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration ,370,357819,9031,994,717347,7984,532, ,342,716858,7772,316,580363,9464,882, ,278,423876,1372,643,875371,1765,169, ,198,102876,4752,946,940370,5875,392,104 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of ,313,873840,3362,153,854400,8564,708, ,232,849901,5762,698,721482,6255,315, ,118,087934,3263,289,505563,9005,905, ,149945,4313,909,739646,5306,499,849 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to ,255,205856,1982,319,477459,0924,889, ,113,765921,9463,099,887637,3625,772, ,770935,9823,927,987851,4056,660, ,522905,3824,767,4311,115,1387,572,473 Source: Tx. State Data Center and Hobby Center for the Study of Texas

Percent of Population by Race/Ethnicity in 2010 and Projections of the Population by Race/Ethnicity from 2020 to 2050 Under Alternative Scenarios of Age/Sex and Race/Ethnicity-Specific Net Migration for Harris County YearNH White NH Black Hispanic NH Asian & Other Total Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to Source: Tx. State Data Center and Hobby Center for the Study of Texas

Population by Race/Ethnicity in 2010 and Projections of the Population by Race/Ethnicity from 2020 to 2050 Under Alternative Scenarios of Age/Sex and Race/Ethnicity-Specific Net Migration for Dallas County YearNH White NH Black Hispanic NH Asian & Other Total ,693518,732905,940158,7742,368,139 Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration ,498570,1531,107,349177,1052,640, ,645605,3551,318,991186,8732,864, ,895627,7561,545,129193,6733,068, ,778640,5421,772,394196,0913,257,805 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of ,757581,4091,155,350198,5372,637, ,468627,9101,435,586231,3332,892, ,394656,5131,742,378264,0463,154, ,233671,5392,070,126295,8843,438,782 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to ,417588,7601,201,188221,7012,636, ,572634,1001,538,137285,9432,922, ,773645,2781,881,934358,3413,215, ,828625,4572,221,784443,1213,522,190 Source: Tx. State Data Center and Hobby Center for the Study of Texas

Percent of Population by Race/Ethnicity in 2010 and Projections of the Population by Race/Ethnicity from 2020 to 2050 Under Alternative Scenarios of Age/Sex and Race/Ethnicity-Specific Net Migration for Dallas County YearNH White NH Black Hispanic NH Asian & Other Total Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to Source: Tx. State Data Center and Hobby Center for the Study of Texas

YearNH WhiteNH BlackHispanic NH Asian & OtherTotal Zero Net Migration 20103,327,493494,4401,163,353214,2915,199, ,083,029729,8621,874,142356,6817,043, ,317,143889,0182,706,852516,9508,429, ,313,453986,4123,491,396647,0639,438, ,200,3511,071,8454,132,177715,33510,119,708 Net Migration Equal to One-Half ,327,493494,4401,163,353214,2915,199, ,155,229767,3341,956,916378,4227,257, ,473,197989,0492,978,165600,0229,040, ,546,7931,164,3874,097,050855,86710,664, ,485,0341,327,1915,282,6011,104,88812,199,714 Net Migration Equal to ,327,493494,4401,163,353214,2915,199, ,229,134806,7302,043,525401,9567,481, ,635,9581,100,1293,277,789700,2429,714, ,794,3411,374,8054,812,7071,154,41312,136, ,791,6731,644,4456,772,9011,783,10214,992,121 Population Age 55 and Older in Texas by Race/Ethnicity in 2010 and Projected to 2050 Using Alternative Projection Scenarios

YearNH WhiteNH BlackHispanic NH Asian & Other Total Zero Net Migration ,536235,422710,789142,3901,844, ,114159,156832,710160,2691,386, ,69097,394784,544130,1131,008, ,10285,433640,78168,272681, ,858577,4052,968,824501,0444,920,131 Net Migration Equal to One-Half ,736272,894793,563164,1312,058, ,968221,7151,021,249221,6001,782, ,596175,3381,118,885255,8451,623, ,759162,8041,185,551249,0211,535, ,157,541832,7514,119,248890,5977,000,137 Net Migration Equal to ,641312,290880,172187,6652,281, ,824293,3991,234,264298,2862,232, ,383274,6761,534,918454,1712,422, ,668269,6401,960,194628,6892,855, ,464,1801,150,0055,609,5481,568,8119,792,544 Numeric Change in Population Age 55 and Older in Texas by Race/Ethnicity in 2010 and Projected to 2050 Using Alternative Projection Scenarios

Percent Change in Population Age 55 and Older in Texas by Race/Ethnicity in 2010 and Projected to 2050 Using Alternative Projection Scenarios YearNH WhiteNH BlackHispanic NH Asian & Other Total Zero Net Migration Net Migration Equal to One-Half Net Migration Equal to

YearNH WhiteNH BlackHispanic NH Asian & Other Zero Net Migration Net Migration Equal to One-Half Net Migration Equal to Population Age 55 and Older in Texas by Race/Ethnicity in 2010 and Projected to 2050 Using Alternative Projection Scenarios

YearNH WhiteNH BlackHispanic NH Asian & OtherTotal Zero Net Migration ,602172,514200,45885,3651,113, ,963252,409370,604136,6921,616, ,842308,405592,392191,3912,019, ,953345,509813,799233,9022,324, ,359376,113960,897252,8502,480,219 Net Migration Equal to One-Half ,602172,514200,45885,3651,113, ,493265,005389,173149,2771,655, ,446342,235661,841234,1502,163, ,808405,538990,731329,8662,673, ,305461,9941,319,648420,7423,124,689 Net Migration Equal to ,602172,514200,45885,3651,113, ,725277,146407,805162,3231,693, ,376376,339741,141288,7912,326, ,691469,2921,221,496474,7413,129, ,284553,2961,848,593724,5924,084,765 Population Age 55 and Older in the Houston-Sugar Land-The Woodlands MSA by Race/Ethnicity in 2010 and Projected to 2050 Using Alternative Projection Scenarios

Numeric Change in Population Age 55 and Older in the Houston-Sugar Land-The Woodlands MSA by Race/Ethnicity in 2010 and Projected to 2050 Using Alternative Projection Scenarios YearNH WhiteNH BlackHispanic NH Asian & Other Total Zero Net Migration ,36179,895170,14651,327502, ,87955,996221,78854,699402, ,11137,104221,40742,511305, ,59430,604147,09818,948156, ,757203,599760,439167,4851,366,280 Net Migration Equal to One-Half ,89192,491188,71563,912542, ,95377,230272,66884,873507, ,36263,303328,89095,716510, ,50356,456328,91790,876450, ,703289,4801,119,190335,3772,010,750 Net Migration Equal to ,123104,632207,34776,958580, ,65199,193333,336126,468632, ,31592,953480,355185,950802, ,40784,004627,097249,851955, ,682380,7821,648,135639,2272,970,826

Percent Change in Population Age 55 and Older in the Houston-Sugar Land-The Woodlands MSA by Race/Ethnicity in 2010 and Projected to 2050 Using Alternative Projection Scenarios YearNH WhiteNH BlackHispanic NH Asian & Other Total Zero Net Migration Net Migration Equal to One-Half Net Migration Equal to

YearNH WhiteNH BlackHispanic NH Asian & Other Zero Net Migration Net Migration Equal to One-Half Net Migration Equal to Population Age 55 and Older in the Houston-Sugar Land-The Woodlands MSA by Race/Ethnicity in 2010 and Projected to 2050 Using Alternative Projection Scenarios

YearNH WhiteNH BlackHispanic NH Asian & OtherTotal Zero Net Migration ,721130,767156,21756,948732, ,143189,142290,08488,2711,066, ,215230,603467,786121,7931,355, ,954265,047654,411154,6261,622, ,357291,695774,637169,0081,757,697 Net Migration Equal to One-Half ,721130,767156,21756,948732, ,929193,662297,86788,6951,051, ,810238,858493,052124,2021,328, ,231279,085720,655173,1471,630, ,632312,996934,401218,8181,882,847 Net Migration Equal to ,721130,767156,21756,948732, ,455197,020304,22987,6321,030, ,512241,033511,699121,5111,280, ,409276,605762,433185,3861,583, ,153303,4331,051,157281,1041,938,847 Population Age 55 and Older in Harris County by Race/Ethnicity in 2010 and Projected to 2050 Using Alternative Projection Scenarios

Numeric Change in Population Age 55 and Older in Harris County by Race/Ethnicity in 2010 and Projected to 2050 Using Alternative Projection Scenarios YearNH WhiteNH BlackHispanic NH Asian & Other Total Zero Net Migration ,42258,375133,86731,323333, ,07241,461177,70233,522288, ,73934,444186,62532,833266, ,59726,648120,22614,382135, ,636160,928618,420112,0601,025,044 Net Migration Equal to One-Half ,20862,895141,65031,747318, ,88145,196195,18535,507277, ,57940,227227,60348,945301, ,59933,911213,74645,671252, ,911182,229778,184161,8701,150,194 Net Migration Equal to ,73466,253148,01230,684297, ,94344,013207,47033,879250, ,10335,572250,73463,875303, ,25626,828288,72495,718355, ,568172,666894,940224,1561,206,194

Percent Change in Population Age 55 and Older in Harris County by Race/Ethnicity in 2010 and Projected to 2050 Using Alternative Projection Scenarios YearNH WhiteNH BlackHispanic NH Asian & Other Total Zero Net Migration Net Migration Equal to One-Half Net Migration Equal to

YearNH WhiteNH BlackHispanic NH Asian & Other Zero Net Migration Net Migration Equal to One-Half Net Migration Equal to Population Age 55 and Older in Harris County by Race/Ethnicity in 2010 and Projected to 2050 Using Alternative Projection Scenarios

TEXAS EDUCATION

Education Level Is Related to Employment and Earnings Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, June 2013/first quarter Unemployment Rate Median Weekly Earnings Median: $827 Overall Unemployment Rate: 7.6%

Mean Household Income by Race/Ethnicity, Educational Attainment, and Occupation In Texas in 2010 Occupations Less Than High School /GED Bachelor's Degree Graduate/ Prof Degree NH White Managerial & Professional$ 72,446$ 84,504$ 120,792$ 149,819 Technical, Sales, & Admin. 52,930 64, , ,471 Precision Prod., Craft, & Repairers 55,079 68,247 94, ,057 Operatives and Laborers 48,819 61,211 77,581 89,720 Total 50,533 64, , ,714 NH Black Managerial & Professional$ 47,483$ 52,186$ 84,758$ 99,073 Technical, Sales, & Admin. 33,980 43,933 75,416 80,852 Precision Prod., Craft, & Repairers 42,767 53,192 82,885 69,805 Operatives and Laborers 37,811 46,296 66,181 63,707 Total 31,072 42,465 78,933 94,490 Hispanic Managerial & Professional$ 52,178$ 61,992$ 88,036$ 116,400 Technical, Sales, & Admin. 40,131 50,127 81,005 91,155 Precision Prod., Craft, & Repairers 42,302 51,527 63,695 63,345 Operatives and Laborers 41,273 47,455 54,282 57,806 Total 38,221 47,760 81, ,473 NH Asian & Other Managerial & Professional$ 84,172$ 73,016$ 103,737$ 130,603 Technical, Sales, & Admin. 52,764 60,719 86, ,469 Precision Prod., Craft, & Repairers 54,594 63,451 70,778 92,041 Operatives and Laborers 47,939 49,015 60,895 65,074 Total 50,815 55,496 93, ,035 Source: Ruggles et al. 2010; U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2010 Public Use Microdata Sample, 2011.

Percent of Population 25 Years of Age and Older in Texas Who Are High School Graduates and Higher or College Graduates and Higher by Race/Ethnicity, Educational Attainment Level NH White*NH Black Hispanic NH Asian & OtherTotal 1990 High School and Higher College and Higher High School and Higher College and Higher High School and Higher College and Higher * NH refers to Non-Hispanic; values for categories labeled NH are only for the Non-Hispanic persons in each race category. Hispanic includes Hispanics of all races. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 American Community Survey, Census 2000, Summary File 3, Census of Population and Housing, 1990: Summary Tape File 3, 2012, 2002, 1990, 1991.

General Revenue Expenditures (in $2010) for Texas Public Elementary and Secondary Schools, Selected Education Programs, and Public Colleges and Universities, and Percent Change in Expenditures, 2000 and 2010 Expenditures Percent Change ProgramTotal Per Student Total Per Student Total Per Student Total Elementary and Secondary$29,237,537,256$7,308$36,491,096,511$7, Bilingual/ESL747,953,8271,5091,295,663,0241, Gifted and Talented311,414, ,034,6781, Special Education2,202,643,4054,5134,800,227,93310, Career and Technology Education*717,482, ,009,165, Total Public Colleges and Public Universities3,406,851,6074,079 3,746,005,0912, Note: Enrollment data based upon and school years. *Enrollment calculated from percentage distribution. Source: Texas Education Agency, , Elementary and Secondary Program Enrollment and expenditures, Academic Excellence Indicator System and State Profile Report; and , Public Education Information Management System Budget Report; Texas Higher Education Coordinating Board, and Public College and University Enrollment Database and 2000 and 2010, An Overview of Article III Senate Bill 1 81st Legislature, 2012.

Selected Characteristics of Texas Education 2 nd in Total Student Enrollment [4.9 million students ( )] 1 1 st in Total Student Enrollment Growth [ to (806,781)] 1 1 st in Hispanic Student Enrollment Growth [ to (752,272)] 1 42 nd in Instruction and Instruction-Related Expenditures per Pupil ($5,443) 2 43 rd in Total Per Pupil Expenditures ($8,350) 2 28 th in Pupils per Teacher (14.7) 1 28 th in Average Freshman Graduation Rates for public secondary schools, (75.4%) 3 Ranked Last in the Percent of People 25 years and over Who have Completed High School [81.1% (including Equivalency)] 4 30 th in Percent of People 25 Years and Over Who Have Completed a Bachelor’s Degree (26.4%) 5 1 National Center for Education Statistics, The Condition of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Common Core of Data (CCD), National Public Education Financial Survey, FY National Center for Education Statistics, Core of Common Data (CCD) 4 American Community Survey, 2011, Table GCT American Community Survey, 2011, Table GCT 1502

Selected Characteristics of Texas Education (2) 12 th in Percent of People below Poverty Level in the Past 12 Months (18.5%) 6 10 th in Percent of Children below Poverty Level in the Past 12 months (26.6%) 7 41 st in Percent of 18- to 24- Year Olds enrolled in Colleges and Universities (39.6%) 8 46 th in the Percent of Public High School Teachers Teaching with a Major in their Main Assignments (71.9%) 9 Between 2000 and 2010, Texas Student Age Population (Ages 5-17) Grew by a 67,522 People Per Year (or 675,220 between ) 10 In 2010, 4,937,351 children were of school age (Age 5-17), up from 4,262,131 in 2000 (a 15.8% increase) 10 6 American Community Survey, 2011, Table GCT American Community Survey, 2011, Table GCT United States Education Dashboard, Data Derived from American Community Survey Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS) data 9 National Center for Education Statistics, Schools and Staffing Survey, U. S. Census Bureau, 2000 & 2010 Decennial Census

Total Public Education (All Levels) and Public Elementary and Secondary School Enrollment in Texas by Race/Ethnicity in 2010 and Projected to 2050 Using the Projections That Assume 2000–2010 Rates of Net Migration for Texas YearNH a WhiteNH BlackHispanic NH Asian & OtherTotal Total Public Education (All Levels)* 20102,137,393832,2022,805,785348,7916,124, ,109,148874,2943,490,796533,0467,007, ,128,376955,1944,428,574682,1968,194, ,037,8041,028,9975,778,539973,9869,819, ,979,1091,095,3427,207,2061,469,75511,751,412 Public Elementary and Secondary Schools 20101,547,693632,4012,398,684269,0664,847, ,548,792646,7562,917,449406,7555,519, ,577,470706,2633,715,984480,5336,480, ,479,111754,1734,865,439726,4527,825, ,446,198798,1256,012,6771,109,4439,366,443 Source: Projections by the authors and 2010 data and rates derived from Texas Education Agency, Enrollment in Texas Public Schools , 2011; Texas Higher Education Coordinating Board, Demographic Data for Public Community College and University Students for , * Excludes public health related educational institutions.

Percent of Total Public Education (All Levels), Public Elementary and Secondary School Enrollment in Texas by Race/Ethnicity in 2010 and Projected to 2050 Using the Projections That Assume 2000–2010 Rates of Net Migration for Texas YearNH WhiteNH BlackHispanic NH Asian & Other Total Public Education (All Levels)* Public Elementary and Secondary Schools Source: Projections by the authors and 2010 data and rates derived from Texas Education Agency, Demographic Data for Public School Students for , 2011;Texas Education Agency, Enrollment in Texas Public Schools , 2011; Texas Higher Education Coordinating Board 2011, Demographic Data for Public Community College and University Students for , * Excludes public health related educational institutions. Note: Enrollment data based on school years.

Total Public Community College, Public University, and Total Public College and University Enrollment in Texas by Race/Ethnicity in 2010 and Projected to 2050 Using the Projection that Assumes Age and Race/Ethnicity-Specific Net Migration for Texas YearNH White*NH BlackHispanic NH Asian & OtherTotal Public Community Colleges ,976130,786263,60037,261746, ,721149,167370,86858,999878, ,231163,939459,61892,6931,012, ,987181,123590,855117,6431,187, ,152196,248771,788170,6271,423,815 Public Universities ,72469,015143,50142,464529, ,63578,371202,47967,292608, ,67584,992252,972108,970701, ,70693,701322,245129,891806, ,759100,969422,741189,685961,154 Total Public Colleges and Universities ,700199,801407,10179,7251,276, ,356227,538573,347126,2911,487, ,906248,931712,590201,6631,714, ,693274,824913,100247,5341,994, ,911297,2171,194,529360,3122,384,969 * NH refers to Non-Hispanic; values for categories labeled NH are only for the Non-Hispanic persons in each race category. Hispanic includes Hispanics of all races. Source: Projections by the authors; and Texas Higher Education Coordinating Board, 2010 Public College and University Enrollment Database, 2012.

Percent of Public Community College, Public University, and Total Public College and University Enrollment in Texas by Race/Ethnicity in 2010 and Projected to 2050 Using the Projection that Assumes Age and Race/Ethnicity-Specific Net Migration for Texas YearNH White*NH BlackHispanic NH Asian & Other Public Community Colleges Public Universities Total Public Colleges and Universities Note: Enrollment data based upon school years. * NH refers to Non-Hispanic; values for categories labeled NH are only for the Non-Hispanic persons in each race category. Hispanic includes Hispanics of all races. Source: Projections by the authors; and Texas Higher Education Coordinating Board, 2010 Public College and University Enrollment Database, 2012.

Percent Change in Projected Number of Students with Financial Need Unmet by Household Resources Enrolled at Public Colleges and Universities in Texas in 2010 and Projected to 2050 Using the Population Projection That Assumes Rates of Net Migration (1.0 Scenario) YearNH White*NH BlackHispanic NH Asian & Other Total Public Community Colleges Public Universities Total Public Colleges and Universities * NH refers to Non-Hispanic; values for categories labeled NH are only for the Non-Hispanic persons in each race category. Hispanic includes Hispanics of all races. Source: Projections by the authors; and Texas Higher Education Coordinating Board, 2010 Financial Aid Database, 2013.

Mean Consumer Expenditures in 2010 and Projected for 2050 Under Alternative Assumptions of Socioeconomic Closure Between Minority and NonHispanic White Households

Percent of All Households in Poverty in 2010 and Projected for 2050 Under Alternative Assumptions of Socioeconomic Closure Between Minority and NonHispanic White Households

Percent Change in Socioeconomic Resources in Texas Compared to Percent Change in Households, Household Change: 127.6%

Percent Change in Socioeconomic Resources Compared to Percent Change in U. S. Households,

The mark of a truly educated man is to be moved deeply by statistics. George Bernard Shaw

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