1. Growing Old, Growing Young: Demographic Challenges Hussein A. Sayed

2. Growing Old, Growing Young: Demographic Challenges The main theme of the session is actually emphasizing the demographic challenges facing nations and subpopulation as a result of their different level of progress within the demographic transition process. The same conclusion was also confirmed by the papers presented, although limited to the Australian experience, but it can be also observed at various levels: * Global / Regional * National * Sub-national

3. Growing Old, Growing Young: Demographic Challenges Besides their demographic implications, they will have clear implications for the measurement of progress, assuming that already have a common consensus of what various stakeholders mean by progress? The presentations and the position elaborated yesterday showed different views about what is meant by progress for different groups and organs depending on various factors including the level of those concerned, the context and the time factor.

4. Growing Old, Growing Young: Demographic Challenges Major prevailing demographic challenges that need to be elaborated include: The changing age structure of the population; Global Ageing; Migration; and, Population characteritics.

5. Demographic Transition: The Changing Age Structure Long-term changes in fertility and mortality resulted in fundamental population dynamics that was reflected on the age structure. The speed and depth of such changes varies, across nations and subpopulations, depending on their place within the demographic transition process. Such differences can be noticed for different regions and globally, as shown in Table 1, representing the expected average annual growth rates during the period 2005- 2050.

6. Table (1) Average Annual Rate of Change of the Total Population and the Population in Broad Age Groups, By Major Area, 2005-2050 (Medium Variant) Total population80+60+15-590-14 Major areas 0.753.372.390.630.01 World 0.052.131.10-0.38-0.14 More developed regions 0.894.192.880.820.03 less developed regions 1.844.033.322.151.02 Least developed countries 0.684.212.840.54-0.29 Other Less developed countries 1.693.863.122.000.87 Africa 0.644.042.700.47-0.29 Asia -0.241.980.90-0.75-0.36 Europe 0.743.992.980.61-0.38 Latin America and the Caribbean 0.622.301.670.370.23 North America 0.812.892.110.650.09Oceania Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of United Nations Secretariat (2005) World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision. Highlights. New York: United Nations.

7. Demographic Transition: The Changing Age Structure Significantly low average annual rate of change for the age group 0-14 years. With the exception of the least developing countries, the rate is very low and even negative for developed regions and parts of the less developed countries. This is mainly the result of continuous low birth rates. Similar trend is noticed for the age group 15-59 years, although the differences between developed and developing countries is becoming more obvious.

8. Global Ageing Population dynamics, accompanied by significant improvements in health and longevity among the elderly are leading to growing percentages of ageing populations and growing rates of old age dependency. Table 2 show a different pathways to the changes in the age structure, leading to growing old and growing young populations at different parts of the world. The prevalence of two population models is clearly seen, at the regional level, reflecting the varying impact of population dynamics (fertility and mortality).

9. The percentage of the population of age 60+ years amounted to 20% in the developed regions compared to only 11% in developing countries. The trend is expected to continue manifesting in 2050 (32% compared to 20% respectively). Significant differences are observed across regions, the percentage of population 60 years or over in Africa (2006) amount to 5 % compared to 21% for Europe and 17% for North America, confirming the prevalence of two models at various levels. Global Ageing

10. Table (2) Population Ageing (60 Years or Over) 2006 Percentage Number (thousands) Area or Region 80 years or over of total population 2050 2006 2050 2006 2050 2006 201322111 968 153687 923World 29193220 400 029247 753More developed regions 18102081 568 124440 170less developed regions 107 5 171 191 39 593Least developed countries 108 5192 884 48 709Africa 9885 55 015 13 670Eastern Africa 8765 18 708 5 125Middle Africa 138197 60 646 13 240Northern Africa 1981276 943 3 723southern Africa 879551 57212 951Western Africa

11. Table (2) Population Ageing (60 Years or Over) 2006 Percentage Number (thousands) Area or Region 80 years or over of total population 2050 2006 2050 2006 2050 2006 19112491 231 237374 802Asia 25123213506 956193 263Eastern Asia 159197481 018121 964South- Central Asia 169238174 95945 117South - eastern Asia 14918768 30414 458western Asia 28183421225 373151 841Europe 2014341877 06553 893Eastern Europe 2921302131 91620 517Northern Europe 3119392353 50434 355Southern Europe 3420342362 88843 075Western Europe

12. Table (2) Population Ageing (60 Years or Over) 2006 Percentage Number (thousands) Area or Region 80 years or over of total population 2050 2006 2050 2006 2050 2006 2114249188 65250 971 Latin America and the Caribbean 2415251111 4974 289Caribbean 201324850 74811 389Central America 2214249126 40735 293South America 28212717118 11456 866North America 2619251411 8934 733Oceania Source: Population Division of the Department of economic and social Affairs of United Nations Secretariat (2006)

13. Global Ageing The ageing process would continue globally, across regions and countries as can be seen from Table 2. By 2050, the percentage 60 years and over is to reach 22% and such percentages would be doubled for almost all developing regions, but the gap between developed and developing countries would narrow. Similar percentage for Europe and North America would reach 34 and 27 % respectively.

14. Global Ageing: Overall Impact Successful ageing leading to maximizing desired outcomes, i.e. adding life to years, not years to life. AS stated by ageing experts, successful ageing is the confluence of three functions: * Avoidance of disease and disability; * High cognitive and maintain physical and mental functioning; * Involvement in society and being active with life.

15. Global Ageing: Overall Impact The aspirations of this growing group and their challenges need to reflected in measuring progress. Various aspects of life for this group include: * Health transition, morbidity and disability; * Marital status changes & intergenerational relationships; * Family structure and the changing norm of the nuclear family; * Living arrangements; * Work participation; * Retirement and social security benefits. Table 3 presents some characteristics of this group.

16. Table (3) Population Ageing characteristic (60 Years or Over) 2006)

17. Demographic Challenges: Migration Migration trends, similarly affected the changes in the age structure; Migration stocks from developing countries might benefit from the better conditions in the receiving countries, but the benefits for the former are affected by many factors; Managed migration programs are based on circular migration, short-term movements and incentives for return back. This will affect population dynamics in different ways. A new type of data collection mechanisms are required.

18. Demographic Challenges: Population Characteristics Human development aspects including health, education and economic growth; Gender concerns, especially among ageing population; Special groups needs and absorbing them within the society ( disability and people with psychological disorder) Level of HIV/AIDS epidemic and death, especially in some region such as Africa.

19. Demographic Challenges and Measuring Progress Measurement of progress that takes into consideration such demographic challenges, would require: * Identifying the aspirations and desirable outcomes for various groups and locations; * A combination of aggregate and distributional measures to respond to the needs of various special groups and geographic locations; * Improving the quality of primary data and widening the scope of measurements to take contextual aspects into consideration.

20. Demographic Challenges: Data Requirements Providing primary quality data for various defined administrative level; Collect information to monitor the situation of subpopulation groups, especially the ageing, to enable countries to develop better policies in that respect(such as the Health & retirement study of the USA) while at the same time develop systems to collect information on children; Collect development information on international migration, especially that some countries are benefiting from this to help stem the decline of population size and working-age.

21. Measuring Progress Measuring progress is a dynamic continuous process that depend on the perception of progress: GDP considered a measure of progress in goods &services HDI is mainly concerned with expanding abilities to make informed choices Progress in that continuum should be concerned with capacity to achieve/realize informed choices.