Presentation on theme: "Eric A. Hanushek Stanford University"— Presentation transcript:
1 Eric A. Hanushek Stanford University South Asia Regional Conference on Education Quality Schooling Quality and Economic GrowthEric A. HanushekStanford University
2 Importance of Human Capital Policy Focus Traditional emphasis on school attainmentDevelopment of access programsCenterpiece of Millennium Development GoalsEducation for All initiativeSome clear successes and some continuing challengesNew evidence that QUALITY is the primary issue
3 Overview of Discussion Importance of quality (cognitive skills)Economic growthIndividual earningsDistributional outcomesPolicy actions and reformResource policiesSupply side incentivesDemand side incentivesImportance of information
4 School Expectancy, 2001 South and West Asia 8.6 7.6 7.1 6.4 Total Male TotalMaleFemaleWorld10.310.79.8Countries in transition12.512.212.6Developed countries15.915.216.4Developing countries9.510.18.9Arab States10.010.69.4Central and Eastern Europe12.7Central Asia11.411.511.3East Asia and the Pacific10.910.5Latin America and the Caribbean13.013.2North America and Western Europe16.315.416.8South and West Asia8.67.6Sub-Saharan Africa7.16.4
5 Cognitive Skills: International Student Achievement Tests Measuring knowledge, not sitting in the classroomInternational agencies have conducted many international tests of students’ performance in cognitive skills since mid-1960s12 testing occasions36 separate test observations (age levels, subjects)Require rescaling to obtain combined measureAdjust mean and variance of separate
6 International Achievement Source: Hanushek and Wößmann (2007).
10 Without quality control Quantity of SchoolingWith quality controlWithout quality control
11 Education Quality and Openness Estimated effect of test scores on average annual rate of growth of real GDP per capita in , depending on degree of openness to international trade of a country. Source: Hanushek and Wößmann (2007).
12 Implications of Reform Speed of reform10, 20, 30 yearsMagnitude of reform½ standard deviationHalf distance of Mexico, Indonesia, Chile to OECDU.S., Germany to East AsianFull impact felt 35 years after completion of reform
13 Improved GDP with Moderately Strong Knowledge Improvement (0.5 s.d.)
14 Other Benefits of Improved Cognitive Skills Individual earningsDeveloped countriesDeveloping countries
15 Estimated Returns to Cognitive Skills *significant at 0.05 level; **significant at 0.01 level. a. Proportional increase in wages from a one standard deviation increase in measured test scores.
16 Other Benefits of Improved Cognitive Skills Individual earningsDeveloped countriesDeveloping countriesIncome distribution
17 Inequality of Educational Quality and of Earnings
18 Conclusions on Economic Impacts Powerful effects of cognitive skills on individual earnings, on the distribution of income, and on economic growthSupport for causal interpretationThe current situation in developing countries is much worse than generally pictured on the basis just of school enrollment and attainment
22 Distribution of Education Quality 2.7%Estonia21.9%Taiwan8.2%USA7.3%66.2%Brazil81.8%PeruSource: Hanushek and Wößmann (2007).
23 Cognitive Skill Production FamiliesPeersCommunity and neighborhoodSchoolsPolicy largely around schoolsbut other interventions such as health programs
24 Resource PoliciesLittle evidence of successCross country evidence
25 Expenditure per Student and Student Performance across Countries
26 Resource Policies Little evidence of success Cross country evidence Within country – developedWithin country – developing
27 Resource Policies No expectation within current incentive structure Little evidence of successCross country evidenceWithin country – developedWithin country – developingDoes not say “resources never have effect”Does not say “resources cannot have effect”No expectation within current incentive structure
28 Teacher Quality Strongest evidence on systematic effects Not related to common measuresObservability
29 Supply Side Incentives Changing InstitutionsApplication in both developed and developing countriesInterpretation – work largely through changing teacher quality
30 Institutional Reforms Supported by Evidence Centralized examsAccountabilityAutonomy/decentralizationChoiceDirect performance incentives
32 Demand Side Incentives Application mainly in developing countriesMotivated by access/attainment issuesWork through changing student and family behaviorPrograms carefully evaluated
33 Range of programs Conditional cash transfers Fee reduction Mexico, Brazil, Columbia, NicaraguaFee reductionIndonesia, Cambodia, Taiwan, Kenya*Food and nutrition supplementsBangladesh, India, Kenya
34 Results of Demand Side Incentives Aimed generally at encouraging attendance/completionRewards linked to being in schoolSupports Education for AllEach has positive (and significant) impact on attendance and attainmentBut, with exception of Kenyan merit scholarship, little or no apparent impact on achievement
35 Conclusions on Demand Side Incentives Incentives have impact on behaviorRequires care in structuring incentivesEnsure that goals are correctDo not assume other outcomesMay be perverse effectsAccess and quality trade-offsAccess viewed as “equity”Equity not supported by low quality
36 Information and Feedback Assessments very badLimited national assessmentsInternational assessments problematicNo regular evaluation functionLocal variation in effectivenessNo simple solutions
37 Conclusions School quality is not easily changed Focus on Incentives but be carefulInformation shortage criticalStudent performanceProgram feedback